## Poll

 \$0.01 No votes (0%) Around \$100 No votes (0%) Much more than \$100 1 vote (11.11%) I don't understand the question 3 votes (33.33%) I'd wish to see the Jeff Bezos pictures 1 vote (11.11%) I'd wish to pardon all nuked WoV members. 2 votes (22.22%) I'd wish to be good at math. No votes (0%) I'd wish for a field trial for my casino game. 2 votes (22.22%) I'd wish for Ivanka Trump 2 votes (22.22%) I'd wish the Wizard would quit asking math puzzles 1 vote (11.11%)

9 members have voted

ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 318
February 10th, 2019 at 2:06:40 PM permalink
"Hell avoidance" seems the most important from a logicians point of view (in my opinion).
Can anyone with the bottle commit suicide before the year is up , and still not go to hell?
On a related note, can you sell it to a logician who knows they have less than a year to live?

If the answer to any of my two questions is yes, then:

I would pay X(pennies) for the bottle

X is defined in this scenario as Y x L

Y = 1 penny

L = Number of logicians in the world (with the "last one" expecting or prepared to die within a year)

If the answer is no to both of my questions, then no logician would buy the bottle in the first place (in my opinion).

Is the above correct, or on the "right track" at least?
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 318
February 10th, 2019 at 2:24:22 PM permalink
:

If the "stranger" was bound by the same rule of "selling it within a year", then he/she must not have been a logician, if the answer is no to both of the questions at the top of my previous reply (in my opinion),

part of my reasoning for my "yes" answer (in my previous reply) can be found below:

"...each party must perform under that contract and carry out certain obligations placed upon them. But, if either party dies before the sale can be completed, then obviously that party can no longer perform under such contract...."

https://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/legal-questions/the-seller-passed-away-now-what-127954.aspx

I used Australian "contract law" since that is where I live.
Is this "contract law" similar or the same in the US?
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 10, 2019
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
• Posts: 1563
February 10th, 2019 at 2:46:55 PM permalink
There's a joke that there can't be a smallest uninteresting number, as it would then be interesting. So I agree with some of the logic in previous answers.

Of course the other solution is to find someone who already lives in Hell (apparently there are seven of them https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hell_(disambiguation) !)
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 318
February 10th, 2019 at 2:52:40 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

...Of course the other solution is to find someone who already lives in Hell (apparently there are seven of them https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hell_(disambiguation) !)

Lol, I don't know if I would rather be sent to "Hell", or live in "Hell, California".
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
• Posts: 474
February 10th, 2019 at 3:36:09 PM permalink
I would...
I simply wouldnt purchase the bottle i was offered, and not told i had to in the first place. I dont believe in hell as you choose your own reality. Ill never see hell, and i won't have to deal with the rules of the game in the first place if i never take the deal.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 19687
February 10th, 2019 at 3:38:03 PM permalink
All of you are masters of avoiding the topic and confusing the issue. I recommend a career in politics or law. I bet one of you was behind this:

Okay, here is a rephrasing of the question:

Quote: Wiz

A stranger offers to sell you a bottle containing a genie. The genie will grant her owner, and any subsequent new owner, one wish. As usual, with genie puzzles, you can't ask for more wishes or anything that would negate the deal to buy the bottle. That said, the only rule is within a year of buying the bottle, you must sell it to another logician for less that what you paid. The rules to the new owner will be the same as for you and you must be truthful about them and he must pass then onto the next buyer, infinitely. The transaction must be in U.S. currency and in amounts evenly divisible by a penny. If you do not find such a buyer, you will spend eternity in hell. You have no reason to doubt the stranger's offer. You may assume the following of all logicians -- you believe in hell, you believe you would not otherwise go there unless you got stuck with the bottle after a year, you do not wish to go to hell, the Genie can not grant wishes that improve your stay in hell, you expect to live through the following year, there is no wish that would be worth going to hell over, not all logicians value the genie equally (affecting what they would pay) or have the same amount of money, and that owls wearing graduation caps is a cliche, What is the least amount you should pay?

It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Fleaswatter
Joined: Dec 1, 2010
• Posts: 317
February 10th, 2019 at 3:56:06 PM permalink
4 cents correction 5 cents I give up, there is no answer
Last edited by: Fleaswatter on Feb 10, 2019
new motto for the left: “I don't know if I received bad information, but I think I suspected there was more than there actually was,” (John Brennan Mar 25, 2019)
unJon

Joined: Jul 1, 2018
• Posts: 887
Thanks for this post from:
February 10th, 2019 at 4:29:40 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

All of you are masters of avoiding the topic and confusing the issue. I recommend a career in politics or law. I bet one of you was behind this:

Okay, here is a rephrasing of the question:

Quote: Wiz

A stranger offers to sell you a bottle containing a genie. The genie will grant her owner, and any subsequent new owner, one wish. As usual, with genie puzzles, you can't ask for more wishes or anything that would negate the deal to buy the bottle. That said, the only rule is within a year of buying the bottle, you must sell it to another logician for less that what you paid. The rules to the new owner will be the same as for you and you must be truthful about them and he must pass then onto the next buyer, infinitely. The transaction must be in U.S. currency and in amounts evenly divisible by a penny. If you do not find such a buyer, you will spend eternity in hell. You have no reason to doubt the stranger's offer. You may assume the following of all logicians -- you believe in hell, you believe you would not otherwise go there unless you got stuck with the bottle after a year, you do not wish to go to hell, the Genie can not grant wishes that improve your stay in hell, you expect to live through the following year, there is no wish that would be worth going to hell over, not all logicians value the genie equally (affecting what they would pay) or have the same amount of money, and that owls wearing graduation caps is a cliche, What is the least amount you should pay?

Then I think the backwards induction argument given first by RS is correct.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
• Posts: 8135
February 10th, 2019 at 4:59:46 PM permalink
Guys we got a major hint there!

First of all, owls wearing graduation hats is NOT cliche. Using my seductive reasoning, you put this into the riddle to show that every other part of that sentence is ALSO untrue.

Riddle me this: Is the answer you’re looking for an actual dollar & cent amount, a formula, or is it “other” (EG: explanation of why it’s ♾ infinite)? AND DONT RESPOND JUST SAYING “yes”.
нет сговор. нет непроходимость. полный освобождение от ответственности.
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 1628
February 10th, 2019 at 5:49:11 PM permalink

My answer is \$273,750. The explanation follows.

Assume that all logicians will sell the bottle for 1 penny less than what they bought it for, and realize that all other logicians will do that.

Now a logician will be willing to buy the bottle if they feel that there will be enough owners (at one penny less on each sale) such that there is a very high chance that at least one of the owners will either drop dead or be in a fatal accident prior to being able to sell it.

Actuarial tables report that a 20 year old has a chance of 1 in 365,000 (approximately) of dieing on any given day between his 20th and 21st birthday. People older than 20 have a higher chance than that, so 1 in 365,000 is a conservative number. If there are 25 times 365,000 owners, then there will be (approximately) a 5-sigma probability that one of the 9,125,000 owners will die within one day of buying the bottle - and before they can re-sell the bottle.

So, logicians realize that if the number of possible owners is >9,125,000 then a logician will feel comfortable in buying the bottle.

I think there needs to 3 x 9,125,000 so that 9,125,000 logicians can buy the bottle without feeling that logicians might avoid purchasing the bottle, so that one unlucky logician of the 9,125,000 will die suddenly from a heart attack, stroke, card accident, fall, mugging, etc before reaching a price point at which logicians start to feel wary about the ability to resell the bottle. So 3 x 9,125,000 x \$0.01 = \$273,750 might be a plausible lowest price for buying the bottle.

I realize the exact values of the numbers are a little bit hokey, but they serve to illustrate the logic. With the prospect of more than 27 million re-sales of the bottle being possible, no one needs to worry about a market reluctance to buy and re-sell the bottle because everyone realizes that one unlucky owner will die suddenly before he can resell well before it reaches the point where prospective buyers become concerned about whether other logicians will be concerned about their ability to re-sell.

The risk exposure of any logician is simply that he will die from accidental or medical causes almost immediately after buying the bottle and thus go to Hell for no good reason. That risk is really < 1 in 1,000,000 for most age groups and thus would be a gamble that any logical person would take.