Craps Odds-Don't Pass
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February 6th, 2019 at 9:33:20 AM
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What are the odds of a shooter passing the dice 8 straight decisions? In other words, if I was playing the Don't Pass line what are my odds of loosing 8 straight decisions.
(including the come out rolls of 2 or 3 which pay the Don't Pass).
Thanks in advance
(including the come out rolls of 2 or 3 which pay the Don't Pass).
Thanks in advance
February 6th, 2019 at 11:58:35 AM
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I'm new here...If this thread should be in the Craps section, please move.... I'm not good at math, so figured it might get a more accurate answer here..
February 6th, 2019 at 12:28:47 PM
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usually when someone asks this question they are pondering the martingale
it's close enough to a 50-50 chance to say the chances are one in 2^8, 1/256, for the purposes of martingale pondering
the chances are actually 244/495, which by the same crunching comes to one in 286.895 unless you want to go more decimals
it's close enough to a 50-50 chance to say the chances are one in 2^8, 1/256, for the purposes of martingale pondering
the chances are actually 244/495, which by the same crunching comes to one in 286.895 unless you want to go more decimals
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
February 6th, 2019 at 12:35:47 PM
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the probability of winning the pass line (and losing the don't pass)Quote: LongshotWhat are the odds of a shooter passing the dice 8 straight decisions? In other words, if I was playing the Don't Pass line what are my odds of loosing 8 straight decisions.
(including the come out rolls of 2 or 3 which pay the Don't Pass).
Thanks in advance
is 244/495 (as another point out)
being that each 'game' played is an independent event, one just multiplies the probabilities out
a= (244/495)
x = a^8 = a*a*a*a* a*a*a*a
x = 12563730464589807616/3604471462609062890625 (to be exact)
or close to 0.00348559576
or about 1 in 286.895 (over the very next 8 games)
where each attempt is NOT 1 game/trial in length
the average number of games would be about 563.82 to see at least 8 pass line winners in a row
ON AVERAGE, HOW MANY TRIALS thread
a streak of at least 8 in a row has a higher probability of happening (at least once)
when more trials are attempted
Here the code is for 1000 pass line bets (bolded)
runs.r(8,1000,244/495)
> runs.r(8,8,244/495)
[1] 0.003485596
> runs.r(8,10,244/495)
[1] 0.007020483
> runs.r(8,20,244/495)
[1] 0.02465153
> runs.r(8,60,244/495)
[1] 0.09221244
> runs.r(8,100,244/495)
[1] 0.1550935
> runs.r(8,200,244/495)
[1] 0.2938944
> runs.r(8,500,244/495)
[1] 0.5878524
> runs.r(8,1000,244/495)
[1] 0.8319812
from:
https://sites.google.com/view/krapstuff/streaks
section 1r.
I think I know what you are up to with this information
starts with a M
and ends with
arty
interesting question
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
February 6th, 2019 at 1:51:42 PM
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Thanks to all..Yes the Martingale...From my time at the tables, they tend to be what craps players refer to as "Choppy" I had some beginners luck with it a couple months ago and got a card for comped room and food for up to 3 nights... That told me it, they want another shot at my limited funds..
February 6th, 2019 at 2:04:50 PM
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I think the analysis above ignores that the Don’t Pass pushes a come out 12. Don’t think it affects the results much.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 6th, 2019 at 3:18:17 PM
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Just do a doey/don’t. Lay odds. Chances of 8 losses in a row, assuming 40% chance of loss is .00065536. You will lose in five years(sarcasm)
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
February 6th, 2019 at 4:17:59 PM
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I have an idea what they will do... They will change the table minimum from $10 to where I can't make 8 bets. The maximum listed on the table is $1000 bet. I don't lay odds, as once i have survived the come out roll, the odds are in my favor so why erase that by laying odds.
February 6th, 2019 at 4:33:10 PM
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Because it allows you to bet money that doesn’t have to undergo the hazard of surviving the come out.Quote: LongshotI have an idea what they will do... They will change the table minimum from $10 to where I can't make 8 bets. The maximum listed on the table is $1000 bet. I don't lay odds, as once i have survived the come out roll, the odds are in my favor so why erase that by laying odds.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 6th, 2019 at 4:59:27 PM
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generally, here at this site, with the best advice, is figure the martingale gives you many small wins subject to colossal losses.
it's been around for centuries and no one ever got rich besides the casinos
it's been around for centuries and no one ever got rich besides the casinos
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
February 6th, 2019 at 6:38:34 PM
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starting at $5 min and making 8 bets, the last bet would be $640Quote: LongshotI have an idea what they will do... They will change the table minimum from $10 to where I can't make 8 bets. The maximum listed on the table is $1000 bet.
Marty style.
with $10 min the 8th bet would be $1280.
the 7th bet would be $640.
sounds thrilling!
I have seen many shooters do something like this,
7,7,11,7,7 on their 1st 5 rolls.
Now you are at $320 Dpass bet ($10 min table)
Point 6 and wins right away
Now you have a $640 bet out there and the shooter rolls a Craps 12 on the next come out roll.
'the waiting is the hardest part'
enjoy the ride
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
February 7th, 2019 at 9:58:20 AM
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Quote: 7crapsstarting at $5 min and making 8 bets, the last bet would be $640
Marty style.
with $10 min the 8th bet would be $1280.
the 7th bet would be $640.
sounds thrilling!
I have seen many shooters do something like this,
7,7,11,7,7 on their 1st 5 rolls.
Now you are at $320 Dpass bet ($10 min table)
Point 6 and wins right away
Now you have a $640 bet out there and the shooter rolls a Craps 12 on the next come out roll.
'the waiting is the hardest part'
enjoy the ride
So true. After the first bet of 10 bucks if it's a loser, I only go to $15.; which would allow me 8 bets before reaching the max... the final bet being $960... In 2 days playing off and on (I spent lots of hours in the sports room playing..watching races sports), my max bet never went past $120.... I know martingale is a loosing proposition because of the Table limit only... I profited about $200 or thereabouts.... The eye in the sky probably noticed and one of the boxmen called out $120 don't pass, like it was some big deal.. Table games for me are limited to hit and run, but it's getting me a comped room...
