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Longshot
Longshot
Joined: Feb 6, 2019
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February 6th, 2019 at 9:33:20 AM permalink
What are the odds of a shooter passing the dice 8 straight decisions? In other words, if I was playing the Don't Pass line what are my odds of loosing 8 straight decisions.

(including the come out rolls of 2 or 3 which pay the Don't Pass).

Thanks in advance
Longshot
Longshot
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February 6th, 2019 at 11:58:35 AM permalink
I'm new here...If this thread should be in the Craps section, please move.... I'm not good at math, so figured it might get a more accurate answer here..
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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February 6th, 2019 at 12:28:47 PM permalink
usually when someone asks this question they are pondering the martingale

it's close enough to a 50-50 chance to say the chances are one in 2^8, 1/256, for the purposes of martingale pondering

the chances are actually 244/495, which by the same crunching comes to one in 286.895 unless you want to go more decimals
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
7craps
7craps
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Thanks for this post from:
Longshot
February 6th, 2019 at 12:35:47 PM permalink
Quote: Longshot

What are the odds of a shooter passing the dice 8 straight decisions? In other words, if I was playing the Don't Pass line what are my odds of loosing 8 straight decisions.

(including the come out rolls of 2 or 3 which pay the Don't Pass).

Thanks in advance

the probability of winning the pass line (and losing the don't pass)
is 244/495 (as another point out)
being that each 'game' played is an independent event, one just multiplies the probabilities out
a= (244/495)
x = a^8 = a*a*a*a* a*a*a*a
x = 12563730464589807616/3604471462609062890625 (to be exact)
or close to 0.00348559576
or about 1 in 286.895 (over the very next 8 games)
where each attempt is NOT 1 game/trial in length

the average number of games would be about 563.82 to see at least 8 pass line winners in a row
ON AVERAGE, HOW MANY TRIALS thread

a streak of at least 8 in a row has a higher probability of happening (at least once)
when more trials are attempted
Here the code is for 1000 pass line bets (bolded)
runs.r(8,1000,244/495)
> runs.r(8,8,244/495)
[1] 0.003485596
> runs.r(8,10,244/495)
[1] 0.007020483
> runs.r(8,20,244/495)
[1] 0.02465153
> runs.r(8,60,244/495)
[1] 0.09221244
> runs.r(8,100,244/495)
[1] 0.1550935
> runs.r(8,200,244/495)
[1] 0.2938944
> runs.r(8,500,244/495)
[1] 0.5878524
> runs.r(8,1000,244/495)
[1] 0.8319812

from:
https://sites.google.com/view/krapstuff/streaks
section 1r.


I think I know what you are up to with this information
starts with a M
and ends with
arty

interesting question
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Longshot
Longshot
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February 6th, 2019 at 1:51:42 PM permalink
Thanks to all..Yes the Martingale...From my time at the tables, they tend to be what craps players refer to as "Choppy" I had some beginners luck with it a couple months ago and got a card for comped room and food for up to 3 nights... That told me it, they want another shot at my limited funds..
unJon
unJon
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February 6th, 2019 at 2:04:50 PM permalink
I think the analysis above ignores that the Don’t Pass pushes a come out 12. Don’t think it affects the results much.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DeMango
DeMango
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February 6th, 2019 at 3:18:17 PM permalink
Just do a doey/don’t. Lay odds. Chances of 8 losses in a row, assuming 40% chance of loss is .00065536. You will lose in five years(sarcasm)
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
Longshot
Longshot
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February 6th, 2019 at 4:17:59 PM permalink
I have an idea what they will do... They will change the table minimum from $10 to where I can't make 8 bets. The maximum listed on the table is $1000 bet. I don't lay odds, as once i have survived the come out roll, the odds are in my favor so why erase that by laying odds.
unJon
unJon
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February 6th, 2019 at 4:33:10 PM permalink
Quote: Longshot

I have an idea what they will do... They will change the table minimum from $10 to where I can't make 8 bets. The maximum listed on the table is $1000 bet. I don't lay odds, as once i have survived the come out roll, the odds are in my favor so why erase that by laying odds.

Because it allows you to bet money that doesn’t have to undergo the hazard of surviving the come out.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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February 6th, 2019 at 4:59:27 PM permalink
generally, here at this site, with the best advice, is figure the martingale gives you many small wins subject to colossal losses.

it's been around for centuries and no one ever got rich besides the casinos
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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