AndyWithTheAces
AndyWithTheAces
Joined: Sep 5, 2018
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September 5th, 2018 at 7:52:36 AM permalink
Hey guys - I was playing in a tournament last night and ended up "straight flushing a straight flush." I'm just wondering what the odds were...here's how it went:

My hand:
Q3h


Pre-flop:
I'm BB and check.

Flop:
59Jh - I bet the pot and get one caller.

Turn:
8h - I check (with the intention of check-raising). Guy pushes all-in; I call.

His hand:
Ac7h


River:
10h - we both have a straight flush, but mine is higher (though I didn't see it at first).

Again, I'm really curious as to what these odds were, that we both would've hit the straight flush...help?
MidwestAP
MidwestAP
Joined: Feb 19, 2012
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September 5th, 2018 at 8:04:27 AM permalink
Don't know the odds, but I received table share of a bad beat jackpot when 9, 8, 7 of hearts were on the board with Jh10h vs 6h5h.
VCUSkyhawk
VCUSkyhawk
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September 5th, 2018 at 8:15:48 AM permalink
Unfortunately this was a tourney. I doubt there was a bad beat jackpot :(
I got a plan, we take all your picks we reverse them like one of those twilight zone episodes where everything is the opposite. You say "black" we go white.
AndyWithTheAces
AndyWithTheAces
Joined: Sep 5, 2018
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September 5th, 2018 at 8:29:35 AM permalink
No bad beat jackpot, but we always have a high hand add-on.
unJon
unJon
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September 5th, 2018 at 8:42:37 AM permalink
Quote: VCUSkyhawk

Unfortunately this was a tourney. I doubt there was a bad beat jackpot :(

Also donít most bad beats require both hole cards to be used?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
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Thanks for this post from:
RomessmoothgrhMaxPen
September 5th, 2018 at 9:12:56 AM permalink
Assuming that you are the only two players and that you both are 100% to go to showdown, the odds of the cards being that way are 0.00000117887 or 1 in 848,272.

At a 9 player table, the odds that any two players would hold the cards to go to such a showdown on a board with an open-ended 4-card straight flush is approximately 1 in 28,276.

But the caveat "both hands go to showdown" is a large one. In real poker, one or both of the two hands that can make the straight flush is very likely to fold pre-flop - and if not, then very likely to fold before showdown.

In your example, your Q3h was in the big blind, and you would have folded Q3h from any other position and would have folded it anyway if another player had 3-bet before the flop. Then, 3 hearts came on the flop - and you probably needed either a Q or 2 or more hearts on the flop to keep you in the hand.

Similarly, your opponent with the 7h could have had a 2c as the 2nd card and then would have folded pre-flop. Et cetera.

So to actually go to showdown and have that hand occur was extremely unlikely. I estimate greater than 1 in 1,000,000.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Sep 5, 2018
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Romes
Romes
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Thanks for this post from:
gordonm888smoothgrhspeedycrapbeachbumbabs
September 5th, 2018 at 11:59:34 AM permalink
Gordon never ceases to amaze me with the amount of number crunching and one off analysis he provides for free to this forum. A tip of the hat to you my friend.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
JimRockford
JimRockford
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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September 5th, 2018 at 12:50:25 PM permalink
I guess this hand shows why I suck at tournaments. In a cash game both of those hands would wind up in the muck. I'm not criticizing. I'm sure tournament conditions gave you and the other guy good reason to play those draws the way you did. I can't get a handle on it though.
"Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things." - Isaac Newton
unJon
unJon
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September 5th, 2018 at 12:57:30 PM permalink
Quote: JimRockford

I guess this hand shows why I suck at tournaments. In a cash game both of those hands would wind up in the muck. I'm not criticizing. I'm sure tournament conditions gave you and the other guy good reason to play those draws the way you did. I can't get a handle on it though.

In a cash game you would fold the big blind with Q3s if no one raised?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
JimRockford
JimRockford
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September 5th, 2018 at 1:03:25 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

In a cash game you would fold the big blind with Q3s if no one raised?


Just noticed I misread the flop. Never mind.
"Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things." - Isaac Newton
speedycrap
speedycrap
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September 5th, 2018 at 1:45:46 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

In a cash game you would fold the big blind with Q3s if no one raised?

I always raised in cash game to prevent this kind of situation.
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
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September 5th, 2018 at 1:47:00 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

In a cash game you would fold the big blind with Q3s if no one raised?

I always raised in cash game to prevent this kind of situation.

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