Counting 7s with Blazing 7s
August 2nd, 2018 at 12:12:08 PM
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Many casinos near me have the Blazing 7s progressive bet:
/games/blackjack/side-bets/blazing-7s/
Usually it's the variant where it's $5 and 3 diamond sevens pays the jackpot.
Typically I see this well under the breakeven point of $488,812.02, but since it's entirely dependent on 7s being dealt, I would imagine that the number of 7s left in the deck and most crucially the number of diamond 7s left can dramatically shift the odds. For example, obviously this should never be played under any circumstances if 4 7d have already been seen in a 6 deck shoe. So I'm wondering if I can find times to selectively play when the count is favorable.
Is there some method I can use to calculate how the return changes based on the number of 7s left in the shoe and total cards remaining?
/games/blackjack/side-bets/blazing-7s/
Usually it's the variant where it's $5 and 3 diamond sevens pays the jackpot.
Typically I see this well under the breakeven point of $488,812.02, but since it's entirely dependent on 7s being dealt, I would imagine that the number of 7s left in the deck and most crucially the number of diamond 7s left can dramatically shift the odds. For example, obviously this should never be played under any circumstances if 4 7d have already been seen in a 6 deck shoe. So I'm wondering if I can find times to selectively play when the count is favorable.
Is there some method I can use to calculate how the return changes based on the number of 7s left in the shoe and total cards remaining?
August 2nd, 2018 at 12:51:45 PM
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The easiest way is to create a spreadsheet with the various combinations of the winners.
Then update it to handle various numbers of decks and how many sevens are left; this also adjusts the number of non-7s in the shoe. This should give an idea of what you need to do to overcome the underlying House Edge.
For instance suppose there was a $2 bet that paid $7 (7 to 2) for any seven. The basic House Edge for 6 decks would be about 3.65% whereas if the first 13 cards had no 7s then the bet swings in the player's favour.
The maths is Pr(no 7) = 288/312 * 287/311 * 286/310, so Pr (any 7) = 1 - Pr(no 7).
Then update it to handle various numbers of decks and how many sevens are left; this also adjusts the number of non-7s in the shoe. This should give an idea of what you need to do to overcome the underlying House Edge.
For instance suppose there was a $2 bet that paid $7 (7 to 2) for any seven. The basic House Edge for 6 decks would be about 3.65% whereas if the first 13 cards had no 7s then the bet swings in the player's favour.
The maths is Pr(no 7) = 288/312 * 287/311 * 286/310, so Pr (any 7) = 1 - Pr(no 7).
