Odds of 4 Boxcars in a row

Hi Wizard,

I have been using your site for years to help me get an advantage at the casino and to help me play more sensibly. I read your articles on dice setting and set out to practice which i have been practicing for years now. However last week I was kicked out of the casino after a 48 hour craps session (i think i finally have this dice setting thing down pat and yes i still went home and slept).

The reason why i think i got this down pat and why i got kicked out is because:

* At one point i threw four 12 craps in a row (i had money on this bet each time)
* On a fairly regular basis i was getting three or four horns in a row (bets on every one and increased bet each time)
* This particular session i decided not to bet the darkside and instead played the win line and at one point had a 30 minute roll which made me about $1000.

Not long before i was kicked out i was told by dealers not to set the dice, at one point a player who i swear was actually a casino employee constantly told me not to "fiddle with the dice" which i thought was a strange thing to say coming from another player when i wasnt taking a long time to set the dice anyways and towards the end i was even being no rolled when the dice didnt reach the back wall presumably because i was normally rolling a horn when that happened.

So my question is:

1. What are the odds of rolling four 12 craps in a row?

2. What are the odds of rolling 3 horns in a row?

3. Overall in your professional opinion could i reasonably assume that i did actually have an advantage over the house?

You have to hit the backwall, that's everywhere. Winning while not doing what they say? yep, you're outa there

even if you are getting some results with your dice setting, for that session it had to do more with luck than anything

the probability of rolling a 12 is one in 36, the chances of rolling again is also 1/36 and you multiply to get the chances of the sequence

so for 4 in a row the denominator becomes 36*36*36*36 = 1,679,616

obviously nearly 1 chance in 2 million is a rare event, but I would guess it means little towards proving you are having influence on the dice. Overall proportion of 12s in a larger sample starts to mean something. It is near useless skill if you need to avoid the backwall to do it.

I understand that one long session and even a one in two million chance is by no means evidence that i am somehow a skilled dice setter and i apologise if my original post came across as suggesting that.

I also just want to clarify to that it was only a couple of times that they asked me to hit the back wall and each time i always complied as i was not intentionally trying not to hit it. The main point i was trying to make was that towards the end they started enforcing these kinds of rules every single throw which at this casino they don't normally do as long as it gets close to the back wall.

I just found the whole scenario strange thats all as i had never been kicked out of the casino before and they were polite about it etc. I just made the assumption it was based on my craps play thats all.

oh and sorry, i forgot to mention but thankyou for clarifying the maths in relation to the four 12 craps

How long have you been playing craps (and setting the dice)? Do you keep honest records of your wins and losses? Are you ahead on craps and if so, is it due to a few large winning sessions or would you still be quite ahead without those big sessions? These are more of “answer to yourself” questions, as I don’t particularly want to know or care the answers to those questions—but if you want to share your answers for guidance on what those things mean, feel free.

It doesn’t matter what the casino does. I’ve seen the casino kick out some of the most idiotic players making the worst bets and winning a lot of money....and they weren’t even shooting the dice!

Thanks RS, your post has been helpful. I think ultimately i need to start keeping honest records and in all honesty i think stop the horn bets as well and focus on the win line etc.

From memory and please don't quote me on this but i think it mentions somewhere on the main site that the prop bets really aren't much better anyways even if you can successfully set the dice. Not to mention regularly betting it draws a lot of attention as well!

It's amazing craps tables still exist with all these dice setters out there.

I think even if it did become a serious threat to the casinos they would just treat the dice setters like they treat the card counters and it would be business as usual

How many hours of craps were played during your 48 hour craps session?

Table opens at midday and i played till about 3 am on the first day although i did take a couple of breaks to eat, go for a walk etc. Second day started at midday again and went till about 1 am.

So roughly just slightly over 24 hours i reckon in total.

Quote: mindsneak88

At one point i threw four 12 craps in a row (i had money on this bet each time)

1. What are the odds of rolling four 12 craps in a row?

so you had way more than 4 rolls of the dice.
while it is true the number of attempts on average is 1/(1/36)^4
the more rolls you make the easier it is to accomplish such a rare event
here is a table of data

rolls	1 in
4	1,679,616.0
10	245,797.5
20	101,453.6
30	63,918.1
40	46,656.4
50	36,735.6
60	30,294.1
70	25,774.6
80	22,428.6
90	19,851.5
100	17,805.6
110	16,142.0
120	14,762.7
130	13,600.6
140	12,608.1
150	11,750.6
160	11,002.3
170	10,343.6
180	9,759.4
190	9,237.6
200	8,768.8
500	3,476.4
1000	1,733.2

Quote: mindsneak88

2. What are the odds of rolling 3 horns in a row?

a horn roll is the same exactly as rolling a 7 (6 ways for each)
the average number of attempts is 1/(1/6)^3

Quote: mindsneak88

3. Overall in your professional opinion could i reasonably assume that i did actually have an advantage over the house?

really,
why does it matter IF you actually had an advantage because of how you rolled the dice?
IF you think you did, you did, that should make you feel better.


Remember, when 1,000 blind Gorillas rolled the dice and over 80 were classified as ones you bet with, did they not have an advantage over the house? they won money for those that bet with them!
each Gorilla was only after bananas!!

some say they did!
what a fun experiment that was to watch on video!

have fun
Sally