Baccarat - 9 ties in a row
April 29th, 2018 at 8:22:20 AM
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So the other day I saw this happen, 9 ties in a row. What are the odds of this happening, in standard 8 deck Baccarat?
April 29th, 2018 at 8:44:48 AM
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Here are the chances:
0.000000006803669441384630000000
So, no, it didn't happen. This is #FakeNews.
0.000000006803669441384630000000
So, no, it didn't happen. This is #FakeNews.
April 29th, 2018 at 8:45:54 AM
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But you have to admit, better than the chance of 18 yo's in a row!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
April 29th, 2018 at 9:22:09 AM
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Quote: SM777Here are the chances:
0.000000006803669441384630000000
So, no, it didn't happen. This is #FakeNews.
accepting your figure, that's 1 chance in 146,979,510
it's impossible to say impossible, so this is how I like to say it is vastly improbable anymore:
if the report is so reliable that there is only one chance in a million it could be wrong, and we round the alternative to one chance in 146 million, then it is more likely that the report is in some way mistaken by 2 orders of magnitude [plenty considering it is versus that ridiculously generous one chance in a million that the report was unreliable.]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
April 29th, 2018 at 9:39:03 AM
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I saw 7 times in a row, once. Table went crazy and bet the Tie til the end of the shoe.Quote: seanythetankSo the other day I saw this happen, 9 ties in a row.
What are the odds of this happening, in standard 8 deck Baccarat?
The chance it happens in an 8 deck standard shoe (avg 81 hands and nOT online casino) is about
0.000000042310422 or
1 in 23,634,838.7 shoes on average
simple streak calculator
https://sites.google.com/view/krapstuff/home
p(ties)=0.095156
trials=81
streak=9
others calculate just for 9 hands
well,
there are always more than 9 hands played in an 8 deck shoe
(I am just guessing)
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
April 29th, 2018 at 10:36:02 AM
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Did it really happen? I gotta doubt it.
Is it possible? I suppose anything is possible.
Bottom line: Shit happens…
Is it possible? I suppose anything is possible.
Bottom line: Shit happens…
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
April 29th, 2018 at 11:06:55 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitaccepting your figure, that's 1 chance in 146,979,510
it's impossible to say impossible, so this is how I like to say it is vastly improbable anymore:
if the report is so reliable that there is only one chance in a million it could be wrong, and we round the alternative to one chance in 146 million, then it is more likely that the report is in some way mistaken by 2 orders of magnitude [plenty considering it is versus that ridiculously generous one chance in a million that the report was unreliable.]
Powerball is 1 in 292 million. I'd say this happened.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
April 29th, 2018 at 11:28:13 AM
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that is close to 10 Ties in a row in a shoe.Quote: IbeatyouracesPowerball is 1 in 292 million. I'd say this happened.
I say it happened too.
question for the OP, make any bets on Tie during the streak?
lots of 'monkey' 'monkey' being yelled too!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
April 29th, 2018 at 11:31:29 AM
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Easy to estimate the probability of that event happening and being observed by a random truthful observer.Quote: SM777Here are the chances:
0.000000006803669441384630000000
So, no, it didn't happen. This is #FakeNews.
Far more difficult to estimate whether this brand new member is...
1. Truthful,
2. Reliable,
3. Joined here just to tell us what he saw,
4. Joined here out of some mischievous intent.
I have never seen 3 or more ties in succession ( not watched many games )
I have seen many, MANY, members join here out of mischievous intent.
Welcome new user.
Why tell us way less than half of the story?
Which casino?
How much had you wagered?
How much did you win/lose?
How much had you drunk, snorted, injected?
Did you wager the contents of your wallet on any hand from that shoe?
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
April 29th, 2018 at 11:52:52 PM
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Quote: OnceDear
Welcome new user.
Why tell us way less than half of the story?
Which casino?
How much had you wagered?
How much did you win/lose?
How much had you drunk, snorted, injected?
Did you wager the contents of your wallet on any hand from that shoe?
Hi guys, wow I didn't expect this much interest. I had previously asked Reddit, but they gave me some dubious answers so I created an account here to ask. I didn't think the details would be of interest, but here they are:
Which casino?
It was at Crown casino, in Melbourne Australia. It was a standup, low limit mini bac table in the main floor area.
How much had you wagered? Win/loss?
I wasn't playing, just watching. One person was playing, and had a single $25 bet which he let ride left on the bet for the streak. No other bets on the table.
How inebriated were you?
Stone sober. It was the middle of the day.
Any other questions I'll be happy to answer!
Last edited by: seanythetank on Apr 30, 2018
April 30th, 2018 at 12:32:07 AM
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Quote: seanythetankSo the other day I saw this happen, 9 ties in a row. What are the odds of this happening, in standard 8 deck Baccarat?
Be careful - anyone posting that something happened "x times in a row" is going to be lambasted and blasted off the forum
April 30th, 2018 at 12:58:12 AM
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Quote: seanythetankHi guys, wow I didn't expect this much interest. I had previously asked Reddit, but they gave me some dubious answers so I created an account here to ask. I didn't think the details would be of interest, but here they are:
Which casino?
It was at Crown casino, in Melbourne Australia. It was a standup, low limit mini bac table in the main floor area.
How much had you wagered? Win/loss?
I wasn't playing, just watching. One person was playing, and had a single $25 bet which he let ride for the streak. No other bets on the table.
How inebriated were you?
Stone sober. It was the middle of the day.
Any other questions I'll be happy to answer!
how furious was that bettor who 'let it ride'? yes, I mean angry.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
April 30th, 2018 at 1:24:44 AM
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Quote: odiousgambithow furious was that bettor who 'let it ride'? yes, I mean angry.
He was just a normal punter, he didn't seem to realise how unlikely it was. He was very happy with his winnings.
April 30th, 2018 at 2:36:00 AM
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Quote: seanythetankHe was just a normal punter, he didn't seem to realise how unlikely it was. He was very happy with his winnings.
well, if he was letting it ride, he should have run into "the loss rebate for the casino" * .... in other words, the limit on payouts. I would guess that would happen when three in a row happened and four in a row was next. 25*8*8*8=12,800 and if he was letting that ride , the dealer should have told him he can't bet that and get the full payout, $102,400, or perhaps he was allowed to find out the hard way . That would bend me out of shape at least a little; maybe he was used to it.
At some point he must have realized he missed out on some $3,000,000,000 even if he was keeping some of it back like most of us would. And there must have been tension about when to quit that all observers would have been buzzing about, as clearly it can't go on forever. All of that seems to be missing from your story. Perhaps it was not a case of true "letting it ride" ... perhaps there are some other details not quite remembered too, like 3 in a row followed by banker win followed by player win followed by some more ties in a row. Just saying. What you describe is not impossible, but it's just more likely, let's politely say, you are not quite remembering what happened exactly right.
*credit for that wisecrack goes to Mission146
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
April 30th, 2018 at 2:51:38 AM
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I meant that he just left the bet on the table, and took the winnings each time, so he won 9x$200. Apologies for my misuse of phrase.
April 30th, 2018 at 3:20:20 AM
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yeah, I'm looking for reasons to doubt. To say so is always a touchy thing, sorry. You have to expect it if you want to tell of such a story too.Quote: seanythetankI meant that he just left the bet on the table, and took the winnings each time, so he won 9x$200. Apologies for my misuse of phrase.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
April 30th, 2018 at 4:01:23 AM
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Quote: odiousgambityeah, I'm looking for reasons to doubt. To say so is always a touchy thing, sorry. You have to expect it if you want to tell of such a story too.
Yeah, looking back I can absolutely understand why no one's believing me (I wouldn't believe it either), I would have written my post a little less casually if I'd thought about that. It actually happened quite a few months ago (I wrote 'the other day' in the OP out of habit/laziness), and I only learnt about this forum from Mike's Sic Bo video, so I thought I would just ask. It's a shame but there is no way I can prove it happened - but then again I didn't make this post to tell an anecdote, just to get an answer to a math question :). Is one in 146,979,510 really the answer?
April 30th, 2018 at 4:35:22 AM
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I get something different , not sure why, so I will show my work, good chance I screwed up, you might be better off assuming the other guy is right. If I am right, the chances of it happening are worse than one in a billion
the wizard does the hard work by calculating the probability that a tie occurs, I found it at
https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics/
raising it to the 9th power
0.095156^9
equals 0.0000000006396252
the inverse is 1/0.0000000006396252=1563415575 rounding
1,563,415,575 instead of 146,979,510
the wizard does the hard work by calculating the probability that a tie occurs, I found it at
https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics/
raising it to the 9th power
0.095156^9
equals 0.0000000006396252
the inverse is 1/0.0000000006396252=1563415575 rounding
1,563,415,575 instead of 146,979,510
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
April 30th, 2018 at 4:46:54 AM
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Quote: odiousgambit
1,563,415,575 instead of 146,979,510
The lottery winners are an easier analogy to grasp. Can someone please tell us why it isn't a good analogy?
April 30th, 2018 at 5:05:28 AM
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Quote: odiousgambit
1,563,415,575 instead of 146,979,510
I think that's the number I came to as well.
April 30th, 2018 at 7:38:55 AM
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better to win something and not anything while seeing a rare event, i say.Quote: seanythetankI meant that he just left the bet on the table, and took the winnings each time, so he won 9x$200.
here is a table for the probabilities of a streak of at least length X
all others so far have shown the probability for just any set of 9 hands.
this considers that it could happen in an average 8 deck shoe. (81 hands)
the math is very simple using a streak calculator too
| streak X | prob 81 hand shoe | 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.48827454 | 2.05 |
| 3 | 0.059964086 | 16.68 |
| 4 | 0.005779378 | 173.03 |
| 5 | 0.000544172 | 1,837.65 |
| 6 | 5.11206E-05 | 19,561.60 |
| 7 | 4.8006E-06 | 208,307.11 |
| 8 | 4.50725E-07 | 2,218,648.38 |
| 9 | 4.23104E-08 | 23,634,839.00 |
| 10 | 3.97102E-09 | 251,824,598.98 |
i say,
try to bet on a rare event unfolding
next time!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
April 30th, 2018 at 7:49:05 AM
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Here's all you need to know about streaks. Watch in order.
https://youtu.be/lIhsgIOAP9Q
https://youtu.be/8bjIms6kVdI
One of the best South Park episodes BTW.
https://youtu.be/lIhsgIOAP9Q
https://youtu.be/8bjIms6kVdI
One of the best South Park episodes BTW.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
April 30th, 2018 at 8:08:57 AM
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Quote: mustangsally
here is a table for the probabilities of a streak of at least length X
all others so far have shown the probability for just any set of 9 hands.
How come the probability for a 9 tie streak is so vastly lower when calculating for any 9 hands vs a standard shoe? 23 million vs 1.5 billion is a pretty big discrepancy!
Is it because since the shoe continues after a streak fails, there are further opportunities for it to arise? Whereas the other calculations were for a single run per shoe? Would the depth of the shoe at which the streak occurs effect these odds?
April 30th, 2018 at 8:23:37 AM
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yes.Quote: seanythetankIs it because since the shoe continues after a streak fails, there are further opportunities for it to arise?
others post the probability that it happens in just 9 hands
that could be very useful to know if one only plays 9 hands, i guess
and as you know there are on average about 81 hands in an 8 deck shoe.
so the probability of at least 1 such streak of 9 Ties
must be way easier than just 9 hands
as one gets to try again and again and again until the end of the shoe
now, not counting shoes
say over 81,000 hands played (100 shoes - a casino could have this many in a year easy)
> runs.r(9,8.1e4,0.095161,0)#8 deck Baccarat Tie streak
[1] "for a run of 9, success probability: 4.689589103e-05"
[1] "1 in: 21323.8"
[1] "Number of trials: 81000"
Sally
a few more trials
this calculator finished in less than 1 second
this calculator finished in less than 1 second
> runs.r(9,1e9,0.095156,0)
[1] "for a run of 9, success probability: 0.4394075284"
[1] "1 in: 2.27579"
[1] "Number of trials: 1,000,000,000"
> runs.r(9,1e8,0.095156,0)
[1] "for a run of 9, success probability: 0.05623312956"
[1] "1 in: 17.7831"
[1] "Number of trials: 100,000,000"
> runs.r(9, 1.5e9, 0.095156, 0)
[1] "for a run of 9, success probability: 0.5802691511"
[1] "1 in: 1.72334"
[1] "Number of trials: 1,500,000,000"
Last edited by: mustangsally on Apr 30, 2018
I Heart Vi Hart
April 30th, 2018 at 8:25:29 AM
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it slightly could depending on what cards remain in the shoe.Quote: seanythetankWould the depth of the shoe at which the streak occurs effect these odds?
but that would be like splitting hairs that have already been split at least once.
and who really likes split hairs!!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
April 30th, 2018 at 5:49:05 PM
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Thanks Sally! Some good insight for me :)
April 30th, 2018 at 6:25:07 PM
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Quote: odiousgambitI get something different , not sure why, so I will show my work, good chance I screwed up, you might be better off assuming the other guy is right. If I am right, the chances of it happening are worse than one in a billion
the wizard does the hard work by calculating the probability that a tie occurs, I found it at
https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics/
raising it to the 9th power
0.095156^9
equals 0.0000000006396252
the inverse is 1/0.0000000006396252=1563415575 rounding
1,563,415,575 instead of 146,979,510
Yes, this is correct. I only did 8 ties in a row.
June 28th, 2022 at 6:30:19 AM
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A dealer at Chumash told me he saw 13 in a row. I believe it because symmetry causes more symmetry. Just because the odds are absurd doesnt mean it doesnt happen. He also said that the entire table quit because no one was betting it. I would have bet the shit out of it. When I see 2 ties in a row, I always bet because that third one is a slap in the face (8x missed? Screw that). I have personally seen 7 in a row. I only bet 2 of them at Capitol Casino Sacramento.
So, 9 is believable based on the dealers story and seeing what can happen in a shuffle. A symmetrical shoe can randomly occur, causing many ties back to back . . . Odds are youll never see it though. There is a shoe out there with all ties. It Just isnt likely to hit with a shuffle master, know what I mean?
So, 9 is believable based on the dealers story and seeing what can happen in a shuffle. A symmetrical shoe can randomly occur, causing many ties back to back . . . Odds are youll never see it though. There is a shoe out there with all ties. It Just isnt likely to hit with a shuffle master, know what I mean?
June 28th, 2022 at 8:36:24 AM
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In case anyone is interested, 18 yo's in a row has about the same probability as 22.1 baccarat ties in a row.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
June 28th, 2022 at 11:55:18 AM
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What an impoverished, barren existence one must have to believe that nothing remarkable - nothing improbable - ever happens in the whole wide world of 7.9 billon people during one's years on Earth.
A pox of Mongolian crotch-rot on anyone who didn't at least pause and initially give this claim the benefit of the doubt. I'm guessing you've also never seen the stars in the night-sky nor the joy in a child's eyes.
Any soul who calculated the odds of this happening in one instance of 9 consecutive hands and used that as a basis for denouncing the OP should be tried in Mathematics Court. If only we had a Mathematics Court! It's the old chestnut: "If you torture numbers enough, they will confess to anything." No one claimed that in the entire history of the world human beings have only dealt 9 hands of baccarat and that those 9 hands all tied. Let's all strive to improve at putting our calculations in context.
Of course, this probably happened. It has probably happened many times somewhere in the world during the history of gambling. IMO, OP's claim has now satisfied several important plausibility tests.
A pox of Mongolian crotch-rot on anyone who didn't at least pause and initially give this claim the benefit of the doubt. I'm guessing you've also never seen the stars in the night-sky nor the joy in a child's eyes.
Any soul who calculated the odds of this happening in one instance of 9 consecutive hands and used that as a basis for denouncing the OP should be tried in Mathematics Court. If only we had a Mathematics Court! It's the old chestnut: "If you torture numbers enough, they will confess to anything." No one claimed that in the entire history of the world human beings have only dealt 9 hands of baccarat and that those 9 hands all tied. Let's all strive to improve at putting our calculations in context.
Of course, this probably happened. It has probably happened many times somewhere in the world during the history of gambling. IMO, OP's claim has now satisfied several important plausibility tests.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
June 28th, 2022 at 1:18:15 PM
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How many baccarat tables are there on the planet? How many shoes are dealt on each table every day? No matter how outrageous the odds are, streaks like this are going to happen somewhere at some point.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland.
And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with.
- AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
June 28th, 2022 at 3:29:59 PM
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It's also my understanding that cards (dice, roulette balls) don't have memory.
So after the third time did the cards say that's too many in a row to keep going?
After the eighth tie, the cards suddenly remembered?
Perhaps with playing cards, due to the fact that configuration of prior games may have some effect on Ties.
But what about the 18 yo claim or the thirty reds at roulette (I witnessed and played the thirty roulette reds myself).
So after the third time did the cards say that's too many in a row to keep going?
After the eighth tie, the cards suddenly remembered?
Perhaps with playing cards, due to the fact that configuration of prior games may have some effect on Ties.
But what about the 18 yo claim or the thirty reds at roulette (I witnessed and played the thirty roulette reds myself).
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
June 29th, 2022 at 5:10:42 AM
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One question we should be asking ourselves:
When something that is highly improbable does actually occur in a casino, what are the chances that someone will come on the Wizard of Vegas forum and make a post that reports it?
Is it 1 in 10? 1 in 3?
The world is a big place and "stuff" happens.
Like dice landing on top of each other. Dice are observed to land on top of each other every 12 to 18 months, says a dealer
Like this one: Soopoo report of two golf balls on different holes hit waywardly and hitting each other in mid air
WOV or WOO should have some sort of official list of rare/improbable things that people have observed. Not sure how to define what is rare enough to make the list, though.
When something that is highly improbable does actually occur in a casino, what are the chances that someone will come on the Wizard of Vegas forum and make a post that reports it?
Is it 1 in 10? 1 in 3?
The world is a big place and "stuff" happens.
Like dice landing on top of each other. Dice are observed to land on top of each other every 12 to 18 months, says a dealer
Like this one: Soopoo report of two golf balls on different holes hit waywardly and hitting each other in mid air
WOV or WOO should have some sort of official list of rare/improbable things that people have observed. Not sure how to define what is rare enough to make the list, though.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
June 29th, 2022 at 9:59:22 AM
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Kudos to The Wiz for bringing up a sore subject!! Woulda been in red shortly!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
June 29th, 2022 at 10:10:29 AM
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What are the odds that there will be 5 ties in a row? because I have seen that more than once just in the past couple years.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
June 29th, 2022 at 10:40:59 AM
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Quote: MDawgWhat are the odds that there will be 5 ties in a row? because I have seen that more than once just in the past couple years.
link to original post
Which question are you asking (because the answer is different):
1) What are the odds that the next five hands will all be ties?
2) What are the odds that the next shoe will have at least five ties in a row?
3) In a given day I play [five] shoes what are the odds that I will see at least five ties in a row that day?
4) In a given trip to Vegas, I play [50] shoes, what are the odds that I will see at least five ties in a row on a trip?
5) Over my lifetime I have played [5,000] shoes, what is the chance that have seen at least five ties in a row at some point ever?
ETA: I’ve seen math here run on #1 for an improbable event where the question was really asking for #s 2-5.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
June 29th, 2022 at 12:42:25 PM
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I suppose some or all of the above?
Over all just saying that I haven't played millions of shoes in the past couple years and yet I've seen five Bacc ties in a row more than once.
I will say that I have seen 16 Bank or Player runs more than once too, but that is the most I have seen in recent years.
But I think more important than the occurrence of these runs is how much the observer made off the runs. On occasion I have netted six figures off such runs, and on other occasions far less.
Over all just saying that I haven't played millions of shoes in the past couple years and yet I've seen five Bacc ties in a row more than once.
I will say that I have seen 16 Bank or Player runs more than once too, but that is the most I have seen in recent years.
But I think more important than the occurrence of these runs is how much the observer made off the runs. On occasion I have netted six figures off such runs, and on other occasions far less.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
June 29th, 2022 at 1:22:00 PM
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Quote: unJon
…
2) What are the odds that the next shoe will have at least five ties in a row?
…
link to original post
Excellent question, unJon! It seems like #2 would be the most useful, as one could take the reciprocal of the answer to get an idea how often (in number of shoes watched) they would be likely to observe such an event, on average. Perhaps we should change the wording as follows:
What is the probability that the average shoe will have at least 1 run of X ties?
This could be calculated for X=5, X=9, or any other value of X from 3 to ?…
It’s a dog eat dog world.
…Or maybe it’s the other way around!
June 29th, 2022 at 2:12:34 PM
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What are the odds of winning "some" 40 hands of blackjack in a row? Asking for a friend ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
June 29th, 2022 at 3:08:40 PM
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The chance that any of these things has happened is 100%, once it has happened.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
June 29th, 2022 at 4:04:17 PM
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Im not 100% sure about this but I’d wager that there are more Bacc table games in the world than any other table game. And FWIW easily an order of magnitude (or two) more Bacc than craps tables in the world. If I had to guess of which game would result in the most unlikely statistical event that actually occurred, I’d say Bacc. I also suspect like others have said that there’s something slightly self-reinforcing about the removal effects of ties (could be wrong)
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
June 29th, 2022 at 7:27:14 PM
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Also depending on the player, the hands might go by very quickly. Now at a crowded public table, the shoe might take literally hours, but when someone like me is playing alone I might blaze through the shoe in twenty minutes. 70 - 80 hands in just twenty minutes.
A lot of hands flying by equals a lot of potential over a relatively short period of time for "unlikely statistical events."
A lot of hands flying by equals a lot of potential over a relatively short period of time for "unlikely statistical events."
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
June 30th, 2022 at 11:56:09 AM
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It is true that if you remove a pair from a deck/shoe, it is more probable (than it would be from a fresh deck/shoe) that the next two cards will be a pair. Similarly, if you remove a straight (or flush) from a deck/shoe it is more likely than that the next dealt hand will be a straight (or flush).
But I don't think that "symmetry principle" works that way with Tie Probability in Bac. On average, if you remove a Tie hand from the shoe, I believe it is slightly less probable that the next hand will be a tie.
Just for giggles, here are the EORs for the Tie Probability in Baccarat,
As you can see, not all ranks contribute equally to the occurrence of Ties. Removal of 8s and 9s increase the tie probability. The cards that disproportionately appear in ties are 6s and 7s, and also 2,3,4,5.
So after, say, after 8 consecutive Tie Hands I think it is (slightly) more likely that you have disproportionately removed 6,7, 2,3,4 and 5 and thus lowered the Tie probability of the ensuing 9th hand.
The effect of reducing tie probability is very, very small so P(nine consecutive ties) = (prob of one tie)9 is an extremely good approximation, but its not P(nine consecutive ties) > (prob of one tie)9.
(Again, many thanks to miplet for his bac info spreadsheet. miplet is pure gold.)
But I don't think that "symmetry principle" works that way with Tie Probability in Bac. On average, if you remove a Tie hand from the shoe, I believe it is slightly less probable that the next hand will be a tie.
Just for giggles, here are the EORs for the Tie Probability in Baccarat,
As you can see, not all ranks contribute equally to the occurrence of Ties. Removal of 8s and 9s increase the tie probability. The cards that disproportionately appear in ties are 6s and 7s, and also 2,3,4,5.
So after, say, after 8 consecutive Tie Hands I think it is (slightly) more likely that you have disproportionately removed 6,7, 2,3,4 and 5 and thus lowered the Tie probability of the ensuing 9th hand.
The effect of reducing tie probability is very, very small so P(nine consecutive ties) = (prob of one tie)9 is an extremely good approximation, but its not P(nine consecutive ties) > (prob of one tie)9.
(Again, many thanks to miplet for his bac info spreadsheet. miplet is pure gold.)
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
