dihaig
dihaig
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October 8th, 2010 at 4:25:53 PM permalink
DOES ANYONE KNOW THE HOUSE EDGE ON A DON'T PASS AND FIELD BET ON THE COME OUT ROLL WITH 2 AND TWELVE PAYING DOUBLE? BOTH EQUAL BETS...25 AND 25. NEW HERE AND WASN'T SURE WHERE TO POST THIS QUESTION. THANKS
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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October 8th, 2010 at 5:15:14 PM permalink
Hi dihaig. Wecome.

Many of your questions can be answered by referring to the Wizard of Odds' website and following the "Craps" link under "Advice and Strategy": (http://wizardofodds.com/craps)

Specifically, the house edge on Don't pass is: 1.36%. On each $25 bet, you can expect to lose $0.34.

The house edge on a field bet that pays double on the two and the twelve is: 5.56%. On each $25 bet, you can expect to lose $1.39.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
dihaig
dihaig
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October 9th, 2010 at 2:08:57 PM permalink
THANK YOU. SO IT IS 5.56+1.36 DIVIDED BY TWO WHICH WOULD EQUAL 3.46% HA?
goatcabin
goatcabin
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October 10th, 2010 at 11:48:07 AM permalink
Quote: dihaig

THANK YOU. SO IT IS 5.56+1.36 DIVIDED BY TWO WHICH WOULD EQUAL 3.46% HA?



There's a lot more to evaluating craps strategy than figuring the HA, dihaig. Let's examine this strategy and compare it to just betting $50 on either the DP or the Field.

For 60 bets:

$25 each -- expected loss is about $104, standard deviation about $314, probability of breaking even or better about .37
$50 DP -- expected loss is about $42, standard deviation about $387, probability of breaking even or better about .46
$50 Field -- expected loss is about $167, standard deviation about $418, probability of breaking even or better about .34

By mixing in that Field bet, you not only more than double your expected loss, due to the high HA on Field when they don't pay any triple, but you also reduce your variance, which means you have to be luckier to overcome the expected loss. The only advantage is that you will lose less if you have bad luck to the extent of .85 SD, which you can expect to happen about 20% of the time. So, you have about a .8 probability of coming out ahead using just the $50 DP.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
mkl654321
mkl654321
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October 10th, 2010 at 2:14:18 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

By mixing in that Field bet, you not only more than double your expected loss, due to the high HA on Field when they don't pay any triple, but you also reduce your variance, which means you have to be luckier to overcome the expected loss. The only advantage is that you will lose less if you have bad luck to the extent of .85 SD, which you can expect to happen about 20% of the time. So, you have about a .8 probability of coming out ahead using just the $50 DP.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA



I've always found it interesting that variance is the friend of the negative EV player, while it is the enemy of the advantage player. Similarly, variance is the casino's enemy (if Megabucks hits one more time in a year than it "should", the whole system will be deeply in the red), and lack of variance is its friend. This goes to the "best" strategy for the -EV player (aside, of course, from simply staying home), which is to make one massive bet and then walk away, win or lose.

That also points out why blackjack and other low -EV games are such consistent winners for the house. You can never win more than 3:2 on any bet, and usually, only even money. This means that the house endures very low variance. The house edge usually skyrockets as bets carry more and more variance (look at any crap table). Also, slots with bigger top jackpots have a larger hold. (That's why video poker is such a good game to play; the relatively modest 800-1 top jackpot for a royal flush means that the casino can tolerate a low house advantage.)
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
goatcabin
goatcabin
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October 10th, 2010 at 2:26:11 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

I've always found it interesting that variance is the friend of the negative EV player, while it is the enemy of the advantage player. Similarly, variance is the casino's enemy (if Megabucks hits one more time in a year than it "should", the whole system will be deeply in the red), and lack of variance is its friend.



Well, that's simply because, if there were such a thing as an "advantage player", he/she would stand in the place of the casino, relative to random players. If you have an edge, you want to minimize variance.

Quote: mkl654321

That also points out why blackjack and other low -EV games are such consistent winners for the house. You can never win more than 3:2 on any bet, and usually, only even money. This means that the house endures very low variance. The house edge usually skyrockets as bets carry more and more variance (look at any crap table).



Yes, you have to pay for more variance. I once saw a special about gambling on the History Channel, and a guy from UN, Reno, said exactly that: "You buy variance from the casino via the house advantage".

Of course, in the center of the craps table are some bets with very high vig and not much variance (Any 7), either. The house hates it when you bet 12 and parlay!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
Triplell
Triplell
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October 10th, 2010 at 8:26:59 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

Well, that's simply because, if there were such a thing as an "advantage player", he/she would stand in the place of the casino, relative to random players. If you have an edge, you want to minimize variance.



Yes, you have to pay for more variance. I once saw a special about gambling on the History Channel, and a guy from UN, Reno, said exactly that: "You buy variance from the casino via the house advantage".

Of course, in the center of the craps table are some bets with very high vig and not much variance (Any 7), either. The house hates it when you bet 12 and parlay!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA



This really isn't true however because odds bet have an extremely high variance.
goatcabin
goatcabin
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October 10th, 2010 at 10:02:33 PM permalink
Quote: Triplell

This really isn't true however because odds bet have an extremely high variance.



No, they don't, not compared to the 30-1, 15-1 bets. The standard deviations on the odds bets is pretty close to those on the place bets; compare:

SD place 6/8 1.0788
odds on 6/8 1.0954
SD place 5/9 1.1758
odds on 5/9 1.2247
SD place 4/10 1.3199
odds on 4/10 1.4142
SD on 12 5.0944
SD on 2 3.6650

(All expressed relative to the bet amount)

You can see all these numbers in the Configure/Advantage screen of WinCraps.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
mkl654321
mkl654321
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October 10th, 2010 at 10:41:16 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

No, they don't, not compared to the 30-1, 15-1 bets. The standard deviations on the odds bets is pretty close to those on the place bets; compare:

SD place 6/8 1.0788
odds on 6/8 1.0954
SD place 5/9 1.1758
odds on 5/9 1.2247
SD place 4/10 1.3199
odds on 4/10 1.4142
SD on 12 5.0944
SD on 2 3.6650

(All expressed relative to the bet amount)

You can see all these numbers in the Configure/Advantage screen of WinCraps.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA



I don't think he gets what "variance" is. It could perhaps be expressed by the fact that a series of low-variance bets is unlikely to produce drastic positive or negative results; a series of high-variance bets is much more likely to do so.

Guess a number between 1 and 1000. If you win, I pay you 999-1. This is a high-variance bet. Guess whether the number is above or below 500. If you win, I pay you even money. This is a low-variance bet. Go on a date with my ex-wife. This is an extremely high-variance bet, and -EV to boot.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw

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