Wich Value Is Better?
Example 2: 250$ bonus money - 1X requirement - 98% RTP slot. Ones own money being played goes toward the wagering requirememt and the bonus becomes cash first after it has been met.
Is it correct to multiply 0.98 × 250 for a total of 245$ and therefor conclude that example 2 is better? How to actually quantify the value of example 2 in practise to conclude a likely outcome and whether it should be considered better or worse?
It depends on the size of your bankroll and risk factor (ie: what % of kelly you play at) and obviously the variance of the slot machine and denomination. So it depends on what person compared to another. Bill Gates with a 500 Billion USD bankroll is going to play the slot for a $245 EV, while someone with $0 is going to take the $200 cash.
https://www.blackjackapprenticeship.com/math-behind-advantage-play/
Quote: sourceCertainty Equivalence (CE)
This is also known as risk-adjusted return. This is the product of taking the expected win rate and adjusting it based on the level of risk in proportion to the current bankroll and level of risk tolerance. This will show you if the game is “worth playing” compared to your bank size. So you may have a $100 in EV but you CE may only indicate that the game is only worth $50 since your bankroll is so small. You can even go so far as CE going into negative territory which indicates you are severely over betting your bankroll.
The basic equation of figuring CE. EV-( (bet size*Standard Deviation)^2)/(2*Kelly factory*BR)
*Any easy way to think about the concept behind CE: “I could pay you $100 cash, or you could take a 50/50 chance at $200. Is it worth it? What about a 50/50 chance at $101? 1/10 chance at $20,000? At some points, you will take the risk. At other times, the risk involved isn’t justified.
Generally speaking, would you say that example 2 favors the casino more and decreases the value on average?
*On a Bloodsuckers slot machine.
Quote: Sm0keyI don't know if it's over? At wich point of a bankroll does the value exceed 200$ and at wich point is it lower? If i risk as much cash as the bonus itself where does that put me in refards to both profit as such and compared to 200$?
Like I said, also depends on your level of risk or kelly factor.
Quote: Sn4keyzGenerally speaking, would you say that example 2 favors the casino more and decreases the value on average?
*On a Bloodsuckers slot machine.
The casino would rather you take the $200 cash since they (almost certainly I'd imagine) have a significant bankroll. So overall, yes, you'd be better off playing the $250 through a 2% loser.
But for this problem, I don't know, since...well, I don't know anything about it (variance, your kelly factor, BR, etc.). Not that I'm going to do the math either way.
Quote: WizardI'd choose the slot machine for the higher EV. I'm curious to know how you know it's RTP is 98%?
It's stated on the instructions page.
Quote: RSBill Gates with a 500 Billion USD bankroll is going to play the slot for a $245 EV, while someone with $0 is going to take the $200 cash.
Bill Gates earns about $250,000 per hour just in interest, the time spend mashing the buttons would turn that into a losing proposition for him
Quote: Sm0keyExample 1: 200$ cashprize
Example 2: 250$ bonus money - 1X requirement - 98% RTP slot. Ones own money being played goes toward the wagering requirememt and the bonus becomes cash first after it has been met.
Is it correct to multiply 0.98 × 250 for a total of 245$ and therefor conclude that example 2 is better? How to actually quantify the value of example 2 in practise to conclude a likely outcome and whether it should be considered better or worse?
Variance matters. To be extreme if a slot has a single $9800 prize that goes off on average every 10,000 coin in you would probably pick the cash prize.
For example Ultimate and Multistrike have large variances where the $250 coin in could easily be reduced to below $200 despite a decent pay table. I imagine slots are very much the same.
Quote: TomGBill Gates earns about $250,000 per hour just in interest, the time spend mashing the buttons would turn that into a losing proposition for him
Point taken but I question the example. Mashing buttons don't decrease passive income sources like interest.
Quote: TomGBill Gates earns about $250,000 per hour just in interest, the time spend mashing the buttons would turn that into a losing proposition for him
Does he stop earning interest when he plays slot machines? I think he spends most of his actual time giving money away, so being tied up in front of a slot would probably save him millions!
Quote: NathanThe $200 in cash is the better choice IMHO. You can take that $200 and do whatever you want with it, it is cold hard cash. Whereas with the $250 free play you HAVE to play it. I am posting under the scenario that when you take the choice you are playing with a lot of fatigue and are itching to go home already. So that bonus $200 in cash is a Godsend for you and you run for the hills with it. Now let's say you are feeling fatigued and wanted to go home but you chose the $250 in free play and you are so fatigued you play stupid bets in tight machines (Playing while fatigued is not a good idea) and end up with only $50 in cash. You kick yourself for not leaving with the $200. TBH, it all changes if you are fresh, wide awake, and alert then the $250 in the free play is better because you tend to make better bets when your mind is clear and alert rather than fatigued.
No i'm not feeling fatigued nor do i mind spending time playing, quite to the contrary actually: i think it's entertaining. And it's online not in casino.
Quote: NathanThe $200 in cash is the better choice IMHO. You can take that $200 and do whatever you want with it, it is cold hard cash. Whereas with the $250 free play you HAVE to play it. I am posting under the scenario that when you take the choice you are playing with a lot of fatigue and are itching to go home already. So that bonus $200 in cash is a Godsend for you and you run for the hills with it. Now let's say you are feeling fatigued and wanted to go home but you chose the $250 in free play and you are so fatigued you play stupid bets in tight machines (Playing while fatigued is not a good idea) and end up with only $50 in cash. You kick yourself for not leaving with the $200. TBH, it all changes if you are fresh, wide awake, and alert then the $250 in the free play is better because you tend to make better bets when your mind is clear and alert rather than fatigued.
Can I buy your $8 in free play for $5 cash?
Quote: boymimboVariance matters. To be extreme if a slot has a single $9800 prize that goes off on average every 10,000 coin in you would probably pick the cash prize.
For example Ultimate and Multistrike have large variances where the $250 coin in could easily be reduced to below $200 despite a decent pay table. I imagine slots are very much the same.
Variance matters yes. As with many slots the great equalizer comes from the bonus round so i wouldn't be maximizing my odds even if i bet it all on one spin. There's a sweetspot where the bet size isn't big enough to see the bonus too infrequently and not small enough to have it's value watered down by a prolonged grind, and i don't know exactly where that is or how to quantify it.
I will defiantly let you buy my $8 in free play for $5 cash.Quote: RogerKintCan I buy your $8 in free play for $5 cash?
I will defiantly let you buy my $8 in free play for $5 cash.Quote: RogerKintCan I buy your $8 in free play for $5 cash?
Quote: AxelWolfI will defiantly let you buy my $8 in free play for $5 cash.
If there is a 9/6 job game in that house, I'm a buyer at that price.
You are going to truck your ass to the casino for less than $3 in value?Quote: prozemaIf there is a 9/6 job game in that house, I'm a buyer at that price.
If it were a significant amount I would certainly buy free play for a discount.
Quote: AxelWolfYou are going to truck your ass to the casino for less than $3 in value?
If it were a significant amount I would certainly buy free play for a discount.
No. I was thinking you'd sell in hundred lots. :-)
Quote: prozemaPoint taken but I question the example. Mashing buttons don't decrease passive income sources like interest.Quote: TomGBill Gates earns about $250,000 per hour just in interest, the time spend mashing the buttons would turn that into a losing proposition for him
The example isn't meant to show a change in income, only how much that would be worth to him compared to the time lost
How much extra work would you be willing to do for a one time payment of 0.01% of your hourly income?
Looking for UX multipliers is probably not worth the time. Some people just enjoy looking for buried treasure.
I like walking through a casino knowing about advantage gambling exploits though about all I do is play live poker.
Quote: TomGThe example isn't meant to show a change in income, only how much that would be worth to him compared to the time lost
How much extra work would you be willing to do for a one time payment of 0.01% of your hourly income?
I suppose that depends on how much you need a little more.
