MoonRaker1
MoonRaker1
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February 28th, 2018 at 12:03:24 PM permalink
As this is my first post, please, let me thank all active members who make this forum such a great resource.

Although I have searched the forum, I haven't found what I am looking for.
I want to analyze online video poker machines.

Especially, I am interested whether
  • they are fair or biased
  • there is any (statistically significant) difference, if you play for fun (points) or for cash
  • ...


Is there special purpose software available that provides such statistical analysis?

Maybe someone can give me a jump start on
  • how many hands I must collect at least (for JB and Joker's Wild)
  • how I should 'encode' the hands such that they can be used for further analysis most effectively
  • ...


What about the idea to map the dealt hands to unique hands such that it is easier (?) to find patterns regarding the first and second dealt, i.e., final hand.
Or does this transformation reduce or even bias the original data?

Any help and information regarding how to do statistical analysis the right way is highly appreciated.
Romes
Romes
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February 28th, 2018 at 1:04:54 PM permalink
1) Hi MoonRaker1, and welcome to the forums.

2) It's cheating to use Oddjob or MoonRaker... everyone knows that ;-).

3) A good place to start would be to look at the Wizard's Video Poker analyzer for your specific game (type / pay table).

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/analyzer/

After that you can take the resulting table with probabilities and build out an excel sheet (or something else more automatic if you know how to code), then just record hand by hand. It depends how in depth you want to get on whether or not you want to check individual hands. I think personally that would be a MASSIVE undertaking which would involve logging every single card from every single deal/draw. Basically you can record your "buckets" of results (such as are listed on the Wiz's return table):

(sorry for s&*t formatting, just doing this quickly):
Natural Royal Flush 4,000 49,677,654 0.000024 41,213.81 15.489727 0.019411
Five of a Kind 1,000 191,112,966 0.000093 10,713.06 3.696275 0.018669
Wild Royal Flush 500 213,025,399 0.000104 9,611.09 1.019627 0.010405
Straight Flush 250 1,177,014,059 0.000575 1,739.49 1.379925 0.028744
Four of a Kind 100 17,516,331,096 0.008555 116.89 3.086391 0.171108
Full House 35 32,101,452,702 0.015679 63.78 0.563232 0.109754
Flush 25 31,891,658,383 0.015577 64.20 0.248421 0.077883
Straight 15 33,976,555,727 0.016595 60.26 0.065951 0.049785
Three of a Kind 10 274,223,552,262 0.133937 7.47 0.132211 0.267874
Two Pair 5 227,002,401,450 0.110873 9.02 0.000005 0.110873
Kings or Better 5 290,645,557,531 0.141958 7.04 0.000006 0.141958
All Other 0 1,138,417,120,871 0.556029 1.80 0.563240 0.000000
Totals 2,047,405,460,100 1.000000 2.25 26.245010 1.006463

Basically log your hands in to a BLANK table like that and keep track of your total hands. Then after X hands (probably like 50k or 100k) you could check your results against the basic probabilities to see how they line up. For example, if you hit 1659 straights in your 100k hand trial, that would mean you hit on on average 1.6595% of the time, which would line up EXACTLY with expectation. Do that for all of your categories and see how well you fall in line with the probabilities. After X amount of hands (again something like 50k or 100k) you should have a large enough sampling size to know if you're well out of the realm of likely or not.

The PROBLEM is if online sites were SMART about cheating they would just shave each of the probabilities a bit so it wasn't too obvious and they could still jack up the house edge in reality by shaving each category just a little bit. So you could run 100k hands and due to variance find something that's 1SD down and that's still in the realm of 'normal' even though they might have programmed it to be 1SD worse than what it's supposed to be.

When it comes to online you need to either accept you're "gambling" with the sites reputation, or don't play online. The amount of time (and money) you're going to burn "checking" these online games, you could be putting that brain power to work beating real casino games and making money. Not worth it in my opinion, but I understand how people get locked in on ideas and want to solve the problem... Best of luck.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
MoonRaker1
MoonRaker1
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March 2nd, 2018 at 8:33:00 AM permalink
@Romes Thank you for your valuable information.

FYI, the last 67K Joker's Wild (play for fun) hands logged:

Natural Royal Flush 1
Five of a Kind 7
Wild Royal Flush 3
Straight Flush 36
Four of a Kind 576
Full House 1,087
Flush 1,378
Straight 1,802
Three of a Kind 8,455
Two Pair 7,196
All Other 47,092
Totals 67,633

Romes
Romes
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March 2nd, 2018 at 10:01:52 AM permalink
No problem... I thought I put this in my original post, but re-reading apparently I did not... Another thing to note is that while you could take 100 hours of your life and dedicate it to figuring out if one site and one game is fair or not you could learn another entirely more useful skill. Hell, you could even learn to be exceedingly proficient with card counting, or perfect your strategy for ANY kind of VP game, or learn about other AP opportunities through research and study. Basically, while I understand the "itch" and need to know if the game is fair or not, why not just dump online and put your time in to something more useful/profitable? Maybe not even in AP but in your career, relationships, etc, etc?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
MoonRaker1
MoonRaker1
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March 2nd, 2018 at 10:15:59 AM permalink
I appreciate your life coaching.
You may rest assured that I have a good work/life balance; I do not gamble at all.
bobbartop
bobbartop
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March 2nd, 2018 at 12:05:07 PM permalink
Quote: MoonRaker1

I appreciate your life coaching.
You may rest assured that I have a good work/life balance; I do not gamble at all.




To my understanding, that sounds like NO life. :-)

Anyway, I would first search reviews of specific software providers. Some online software, you KNOW they are rigged. Count on it. Some others, very reputable. Might save you some time.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
MoonRaker1
MoonRaker1
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March 3rd, 2018 at 2:25:42 AM permalink
LOL

Anyone interested in the collected data?
prozema
prozema
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March 3rd, 2018 at 7:10:43 AM permalink
I'm not really interested in seeing the data, maybe others are... But one question... Wouldn't it be easier to determine a game is fair based on the frequency each card comes up than it would be to analyse the frequency each hand is made? Seems like if each card appears within X standard deviations from the mean, you have a fair game.
MoonRaker1
MoonRaker1
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March 3rd, 2018 at 7:36:43 AM permalink
Could it be that easy?

I assumed that it may be possible to have an overall sound card frequency distibution while the hands made could significantly deviate.
Sorry, if these are basic questions for the wizzes amongst you but I am terrible lost in this kind of reasoning.
prozema
prozema
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March 3rd, 2018 at 7:43:27 AM permalink
Quote: MoonRaker1

Could it be that easy?

I assumed that it may be possible to have an overall sound card frequency distibution while the hands made could significantly deviate.
Sorry, if these are basic questions for the wizzes amongst you but I am terrible lost in this kind of reasoning.



I would like to meet the person who can make all the cards appear in the correct frequency but still rig the game. I would also like to be friends with this person especially if they work for Powerball.

I try and limit myself to 2 good ideas a day. This may or may not be one.
MoonRaker1
MoonRaker1
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March 3rd, 2018 at 8:14:13 AM permalink
In VP there are dependent draws. Doesn't this make a difference?
MoonRaker1
MoonRaker1
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March 6th, 2018 at 3:16:41 PM permalink
Here is some data.

This is the game:

OutcomePrizeCombinationsProbabilityFrequencyVarianceReturn
Natural Royal Flush
2,500
51,602,157
0.000025
39,676.74
6.276024
0.012602
Five of a Kind
750
188,239,985
0.000092
10,876.57
2.041483
0.013791
Wild Royal Flush
2,500
220,650,993
0.000108
9,278.93
26.836298
0.053886
Straight Flush
250
1,206,240,128
0.000589
1,697.34
1.415209
0.029458
Four of a Kind
100
16,990,135,310
0.008298
120.51
2.999244
0.165967
Full House
50
31,185,650,160
0.015232
65.65
1.236846
0.152318
Flush
25
39,057,571,687
0.019077
52.42
0.306937
0.095383
Straight
20
54,129,666,966
0.026438
37.82
0.239723
0.105753
Three of a Kind
10
259,461,680,495
0.126727
7.89
0.129580
0.253454
Two Pair
5
217,424,150,865
0.106195
9.42
0.000013
0.106195
All Other
0
1,427,489,871,354
0.697219
1.43
0.681698
0.000000
Totals
2,047,405,460,100
1.000000
3.30
42.163053
0.988806



149976 games logged.

Frequency distribution of returns:

Outcome #
Natural Royal Flush
6
Five of a Kind
11
Wild Royal Flush
8
Straight Flush
81
Four of a Kind
1234
Full House
2356
Flush
2924
Straight
3932
Three of a Kind
18808
Two Pair
15967
Nothing
104649
Totals
149976



Frequency distribution of cards dealt:


card 1st draw 2nd draw totals
2c
13951
7100
21051
2d
14147
7000
21147
2h
14239
6972
21211
2s
14086
7115
21201
3c
14058
7099
21157
3d
14255
7159
21414
3h
14375
7040
21415
3s
14205
7226
21431
4c
14131
7183
21314
4d
14112
7158
21270
4h
14186
6945
21131
4s
14305
6979
21284
5c
14110
6986
21096
5d
14090
7008
21098
5h
14280
7077
21357
5s
14200
7168
21368
6c
14048
7080
21128
6d
14067
7062
21129
6h
14081
7132
21213
6s
14254
7104
21358
7c
14099
7065
21164
7d
14211
7045
21256
7h
14299
7119
21418
7s
14318
7022
21340
8c
14067
7081
21148
8d
13990
7187
21177
8h
14189
6979
21168
8s
14064
7193
21257
9c
14056
7174
21230
9d
14108
7083
21191
9h
14085
7030
21115
9s
14174
6987
21161
Ac
14255
6981
21236
Ad
14085
7173
21258
Ah
14033
7104
21137
As
14197
7089
21286
Jc
14107
7050
21157
Jd
14142
7147
21289
Jh
14205
6942
21147
Js
14159
7099
21258
Kc
14062
6912
20974
Kd
14029
7118
21147
Kh
14013
7075
21088
Ks
14212
7042
21254
Qc
14240
6984
21224
Qd
14107
7128
21235
Qh
14272
7028
21300
Qs
14286
6845
21131
Tc
14184
7184
21368
Td
14010
7228
21238
Th
14212
7114
21326
Ts
14174
7025
21199
joker
14056
7158
21214


gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
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March 6th, 2018 at 10:08:32 PM permalink
Quote: prozema

Wouldn't it be easier to determine a game is fair based on the frequency each card comes up than it would be to analyse the frequency each hand is made? Seems like if each card appears within X standard deviations from the mean, you have a fair game.



No, absolutely not. Mathematically and analytically this is a really wrong-headed idea.

Simple-minded example: you are playing texas hold-em. Om two consecutive pre-flop hands you are dealt these 4 cards: 2 kings and 2 sevens. Clearly, being dealt KK and 77 on those two hands is better than being dealt K7 and K7.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
boymimbo
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March 6th, 2018 at 10:40:01 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

No, absolutely not. Mathematically and analytically this is a really wrong-headed idea.

Simple-minded example: you are playing texas hold-em. Om two consecutive pre-flop hands you are dealt these 4 cards: 2 kings and 2 sevens. Clearly, being dealt KK and 77 on those two hands is better than being dealt K7 and K7.



I'm fairly convinced that VP is not rigged at B&M casinos. I've had too much experiences and too many wins and losses to feel otherwise. I've thought about ways to test for fairness and sometimes all I look at is the distribution of the important cards on the deal, such as 2s in DW or Aces in a DB or TDB game. But really, to get to anything statistically relevant you have to look at many, many hands.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
prozema
prozema
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March 7th, 2018 at 3:46:55 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

No, absolutely not. Mathematically and analytically this is a really wrong-headed idea.

Simple-minded example: you are playing texas hold-em. Om two consecutive pre-flop hands you are dealt these 4 cards: 2 kings and 2 sevens. Clearly, being dealt KK and 77 on those two hands is better than being dealt K7 and K7.



That makes sense. If I imagine a game that only had Kings and 7 in the deck and I got the right number of each card over enough two card draws, but never got a pair that would definitely cause suspicion.

Thanks for correcting me.
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