RF prize in poker tourney

I'm going to offer a royal flush bonus prize in my next hold 'em poker tourney. I'm wondering the approximate odds of a royal flush appearing at any time during the night. Assume 8 guys start the tourney and we play at an average pace.

How would the odds differ if the prize is only given if both hole cards must be involved?

Thanks

I deal poker in a bar league, about 3 hours per night, 4 or 5 nights per week.

In my 8 years of dealing, I've seen a Royal Flush, twice. Every few months, I see a straight flush. Quads are somewhat less rare.

In other words, regardless of the rules, it's unlikely that you'll ever pay off this bonus, which also means that you probably shouldn't do it.

Hey DJ,

That's good info, thanks.

So, how about I change up the question a little.

What scenarios would have an approximate 1/100, 1/50 or 1/10 chance of appearing over the course of an evening. This way I can find appropriately valued prizes given the likelihood that I will have to honor them.

Thanks again.

Hi icekreaman, and welcome to the forums.

There are a lot of intelligent people on these forums willing to put in a lot of free effort to help answer questions about most any game, odds, etc, etc. One thing that is usually requested though is at least a bit of effort on the front end to do some basic research =). I believe the answers to your question are here:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=odds+of+poker+hands+occuring

Here's a strange question:

When there's a RF bonus involved, if one player has 3/Royal after the flop but everybody else folds before the turn, can the player ask for the turn and river cards to be shown, and claim the jackpot if the Royal is made?

Thanks, but I know how to use Google and I did spend a reasonable amount of time researching my question before posting. In fact, it was a Google search that brought me to this website.

My question is a bit more specific than 'odds of poker hands occuring' (sic). Perhaps you could follow your own advice before posting flippant replies.

Good question, and I think I'll specifically address this when I set out the rules for claiming the prizes. I'm going to specify that the RF (or other qualifying hand) must occur during the normal course of play, so the above example would be excluded.

Quote: icekreaman

Thanks, but I know how to use Google and I did spend a reasonable amount of time researching my question before posting. In fact, it was a Google search that brought me to this website.

My question is a bit more specific than 'odds of poker hands occuring' (sic). Perhaps you could follow your own advice before posting flippant replies.

If you had read "odds of poker hands" in the google results you could see the frequency with which the hands come up... then take notice that a royal flush is 1 in ~650,000. Then if you played with 8 guys at a "reasonable pace" you'd realize you'd NEVER EVER HIT THAT OR PAY IT OUT, similar to the first response you got on this forum.

Then you posted saying you wanted 1/10, 1/100, etc, etc... which you could AGAIN just use the frequencies from google to see what your answers are.

Quote: icekreaman

...What scenarios would have an approximate 1/100, 1/50 or 1/10 chance of appearing over the course of an evening. This way I can find appropriately valued prizes given the likelihood that I will have to honor them...

3 of a kind = 1 in ~46
full house = 1 in ~700
4 of a kind = 1 in ~4,164
straight flush = 1 in ~72,000

Thus if you deal 50 rounds per hour, 8 hands, 400 hands per hour for 5 hours that would get you about 2,000 hands per night, or about a 50% chance of seeing a quad per night.

So yeah, you didn't read it very well (or google it at all) if I'm answering your first, then follow up questions with the link I provided you... aka google.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Here's a strange question:

When there's a RF bonus involved, if one player has 3/Royal after the flop but everybody else folds before the turn, can the player ask for the turn and river cards to be shown, and claim the jackpot if the Royal is made?

You're describing "Rabbit Hunting".

In most card rooms, it is highly discouraged. In many poker rooms, dealers caught rabbit hunting will get written up. enough write ups and they're gone.

Sometimes, if a player shows his hand, and asks for the next cards, the dealer will, on the sly, peek at the next cards. It certainly would NOT count towards any bonus.

Also, many experienced players frown upon rabbit hunting, preferring that the player pay to see that next card.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

You're describing "Rabbit Hunting"...

Slightly different in this context. He's not just asking to see the next cards just to see them, which is what Rabbit Hunting is. DonGuy is asking if everyone folds will the rest of the cards be dealt out anyways to see if a qualifying hand is made for the bonus.

Typically ThatDonGuy, no, they'e not. The hand must be played through to completion... "usually."

Quote: Romes

If you had read "odds of poker hands" in the google results you could see the frequency with which the hands come up... then take notice that a royal flush is 1 in ~650,000. Then if you played with 8 guys at a "reasonable pace" you'd realize you'd NEVER EVER HIT THAT OR PAY IT OUT, similar to the first response you got on this forum.

Then you posted saying you wanted 1/10, 1/100, etc, etc... which you could AGAIN just use the frequencies from google to see what your answers are.

3 of a kind = 1 in ~46
full house = 1 in ~700
4 of a kind = 1 in ~4,164
straight flush = 1 in ~72,000

Thus if you deal 50 rounds per hour, 8 hands, 400 hands per hour for 5 hours that would get you about 2,000 hands per night, or about a 50% chance of seeing a quad per night.

So yeah, you didn't read it very well (or google it at all) if I'm answering your first, then follow up questions with the link I provided you... aka google.

FH 1 in 700? Perhaps I'm missing something?

The odds you are quoting are for 5 cards being pulled from a deck. I'm looking for the odds of a hand appearing when playing hold em over the course of an evening. I understand the 2 answers will be related but I think even you would agree they are not the same. I really don't want to get into a pissy back and forth so how about you just stfu and let someone else answer.

Quote: AxelWolf

FH 1 in 700? Perhaps I'm missing something?

Yeah I just grabbed the first thing that came off... the process remains the same, just swap some numbers.

Quote: icekreaman

The odds you are quoting are for 5 cards being pulled from a deck. I'm looking for the odds of a hand appearing when playing hold em over the course of an evening. I understand the 2 answers will be related but I think even you would agree they are not the same. I really don't want to get into a pissy back and forth so how about you just stfu and let someone else answer.

I did answer your question... just swap the numbers. X rounds per night, 8 hands per round, Y hands per hour, Z hours... odds of hitting per night after that. So even right now, you know where the data is, and how to do it, and you're saying "stfu and let someone answer." How lazy can you be.

Quote: Romes

I did answer your question... just swap the numbers. X rounds per night, 8 hands per round, Y hands per hour, Z hours... odds of hitting per night after that. So even right now, you know where the data is, and how to do it, and you're saying "stfu and let someone answer." How lazy can you be.

Your assumptions are wrong. There will be fewer than 8 players as the night goes on, hold 'em uses 7 cards not 5 (as I'm sure you know) and most importantly, not all hands will be played.

DJ's anecdote implies that a quad comes up less than every other night as you claim.

To avoid abusive responses, perhaps the question I should have asked was, "Given that the odds of a specific 5-card hand are x, how likely is it that that hand will appear in an 8 player hold 'em poker tournament?"

https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/texas-hold-em/probability/

If the odds are correct, and I'm understanding your question correctly:

1 out of 43,316, taken from the above page

Live table probably averages about 20 hands per hour, lower if it's an inexperienced group and people struggle with passing the deck

Home tournaments typically lasting 5-6 hours?

6 hours * 20 hands per hour = 120 hands for the entire tournament

Can somebody take it from here? lol

It's very unlikely.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

You're describing "Rabbit Hunting".

In most card rooms, it is highly discouraged. In many poker rooms, dealers caught rabbit hunting will get written up. enough write ups and they're gone.

Sometimes, if a player shows his hand, and asks for the next cards, the dealer will, on the sly, peek at the next cards. It certainly would NOT count towards any bonus.

Also, many experienced players frown upon rabbit hunting, preferring that the player pay to see that next card.

So then if I have 4 to a Royal after the turn card, I guess I’d do everything possible from a betting standpoint to make sure at least one other person stays in. Checking my turn, calling any bet. That’s if the Royal bonus payout is much larger than the pot of the hand I’m currently in

Quote: icekreaman

Your assumptions are wrong. There will be fewer than 8 players as the night goes on, hold 'em uses 7 cards not 5 (as I'm sure you know) and most importantly, not all hands will be played.

DJ's anecdote implies that a quad comes up less than every other night as you claim.

To avoid abusive responses, perhaps the question I should have asked was, "Given that the odds of a specific 5-card hand are x, how likely is it that that hand will appear in an 8 player hold 'em poker tournament?"

We would need all the blind levels, the personality of the players, more specific rules on if one, both cards or none of the cards need to be in the players hand. Then we would have to run a simulation of this poker tournament millions of times to see how many players on average will be in each hand.

OR

You just give a bonus away to the person with the best hand of the night.

OR

You pick either quads or a straight flush to be the qualifier and the first person to get that wins.

My point is, (which I didn't specifically say), there's no way to figure the exact likelihood of a royal flush occurring in a Poker tournament. You've seen several estimates, you're going to have to use the best one, or make it simpler.