variance in blackjack
January 20th, 2018 at 12:32:14 PM
permalink
What is the probability to lose 416 of 780 hands in electronic blackjack game?
Or 0,533333333%.
According to my calculation is a rare event in the order of 4 in 1000 times.
Is this true?.
Thanks
Or 0,533333333%.
According to my calculation is a rare event in the order of 4 in 1000 times.
Is this true?.
Thanks
January 20th, 2018 at 12:41:30 PM
permalink
Wouldn't you expect to lose about 51% of the decisions to begin with? Losing an extra 2% over a short run doesn't seem out of the ordinary to me.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
January 20th, 2018 at 12:57:07 PM
permalink
My expected value is just 382,902 in 780.
In this case i have lost 33 more hands than normal.
Is this common?
A mean difference of 52,026 hands against a 126 difference between won and lost hands.
is this normal?
In this case i have lost 33 more hands than normal.
Is this common?
A mean difference of 52,026 hands against a 126 difference between won and lost hands.
is this normal?
January 20th, 2018 at 1:01:35 PM
permalink
I thought that if you follow perfect basic strategy you'll lose 48% of the time and push another 8% of the time (and win 44% of the time). Losing 53% of your hands seems more than normal but not too far-fetched as far as variance goes. Those who are much better acquainted with the math know better than I.
ars longa vita brevis
January 20th, 2018 at 1:05:52 PM
permalink
I'm assuming he is counting decisions, not hands. Eliminate pushes and its closer to 48.5-51.5, as I recall
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
January 20th, 2018 at 1:07:53 PM
permalink
So nothing strange!
I have lost -0.126482903% of the total volume played.
It is very far from the expected value of just 0.0038%.
I have lost -0.126482903% of the total volume played.
It is very far from the expected value of just 0.0038%.
January 20th, 2018 at 1:39:36 PM
permalink
Winning that amount is even more unlikely, but no one ever gets suspicious when unusual results favor the player.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
