Estimating a slot's distribution

Hi everyone!

I'm working on a little project where i'm running monte carlo simulations for different casino games in excel. The roulette one I achieved what I wanted with it without a hitch as the payout is obviously very simple!

I'm very stuck with slots (online slots) though, as of course i don't know the distribution of payouts for a given slot. Can anyone point me in the right direction for ways of getting more information for a slot, or estimating the payout structure so I could run something rough in a monte carlo simulation.

Side note: I'm also stuck with Blackjack for different reasons. I used a distribution I found on the wizardofodds site, but I also want the simulation to know the amount wagered too. Just because you won 2x your stake doesn't mean you wagered 2x your stake on that hand. Any ideas to tackle this? Basically a distribution for amounts stakes when playing many hands of blackjack, not just the payout.

Thanks in advance for any advice :)

Quote: batmantrippin

I'm very stuck with slots (online slots) though, as of course i don't know the distribution of payouts for a given slot. Can anyone point me in the right direction for ways of getting more information for a slot, or estimating the payout structure so I could run something rough in a monte carlo simulation.

It depends on what you mean by "payout structure." Obviously, the payouts themselves are listed on the machine.

Do you mean the probabilities of any particular result showing up? If you do, then, from what I have been able to determine, these are Very Closely Guarded Secrets.

Then again, pretty much the point of a Monte Carlo simulation is to estimate the values when you don't know them in advance. What you would do is, you would play an actual machine over and over again, and track all of the results. The more you play, the more accurate your results will be.

If you want to estimate the amounts bet in blackjack, you can try something like this:
Assume an "infinite deck"; there are 13 x 13 x 13 x 13 different possible deals (your first card, your second card, dealer's first card, dealer's second card). Note that this treats you being dealt 6-2 and you being dealt 2-6 as two different hands, but this way, you don't have to take into account the fact that a 6-2 is twice as likely as a 4-4 (or a 10-10 is 8 times as likely as a 6-2). Look at the deal on a basic strategy card, remembering that you obviously won't double or split a hand where the dealer is dealt a 21, and see where combinations of your two cards and the dealer's up card would result in you doubling or splitting. This leaves out a few details, like doubling after splitting, but it should be a close approximation.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

What you would do is, you would play an actual machine over and over again, and track all of the results.

Or you could play a machine and record the wheel stops and play it enough to reconstruct the complete wheels ( for a video slot like a penny slot).

See Wizard of Odds site "deconstructing hexbreaker" for an idea as to how to do that.

Quote: rsactuary

Or you could play a machine and record the wheel stops and play it enough to reconstruct the complete wheels ( for a video slot like a penny slot).

See Wizard of Odds site "deconstructing hexbreaker" for an idea as to how to do that.

That works only if it is a multi-line machine. On a single-line machine, each symbol does not have the same number of "logical" stops.

^ Personally I would look at all the two-card starting hands for the player (55) and use factoring. Similarly the dealer can have A,2,3,4,5....T and Blackjack (11 options) with known probabilities. It's not that difficult to multiply by 2 for different starting cards and 4 for each "Ten" and can be adapted for finite decks.

Then for each row work out whether (a) split and estimate for how many splits you tend to have and (b) how many doubles you get (either for the starting hand or for each split).

Quote: ThatDonGuy

That works only if it is a multi-line machine. On a single-line machine, each symbol does not have the same number of "logical" stops.

you're talking more of a mechanical reeled slot, or a simulation thereof. I was careful to qualify my comment regarding that.