Statistician solved a scratcher but how?

Hi,

First post, hope it's in the right place and not breaking any rules.

I've had the following link bookmarked for years, can't even remember how I found it.

/*oh right, it seems I can't post a link cause I'm new*/
/*Google "statistician solved tic tac toe scratcher" */
/*it's the wired article*/

Simply, it tells the story of how a statistician solved a variant of a scratch card due to there being non random information showing.
It goes on to tell the reader the simple system to spot winning tickets but doesn't delve into how he solved the scratch card.

I've tried multiple times but I'm no mathematician.

Obviously has something to do with the total boxes on the grid and the number range. Long time since I messed with it and on my phone so not going to try again.

So, how did he do it?

Thanks.

Here's the story from an early 2011 issue of Wired magazine

The quick version: the visible numbers gave a clue as to whether or not the ticket was a likely winner (you still had to scratch off the hidden numbers to see the actual result).

The fat lady from Texas didn't need to see the cards, I've known about this and hate seeing people waste their money. Even though the edge is so much bigger on draw games, if they're chasing a big win, better off taking 1/10000 odds, and better yet, going online to try at an 80% better pay off.

Believe it or not, I just want to know how he did it mathematically as I'm not good enough at statistics/probability to figure it out on my own.

On a side note; draw games? 1/10000? Don't know what you mean.

Quote: DublinMeUp

Believe it or not, I just want to know how he did it mathematically as I'm not good enough at statistics/probability to figure it out on my own.

On a side note; draw games? 1/10000? Don't know what you mean.

pick 4 such as 1234, 7777, 1379, usually pays $5000 for $1 bet, depending on the state. Five dimes pays $9000, seems like a better payout.😉 So instead of buying a $5 scratcher that might be corrupt, actually unfair odds of the big ones, play $5 straight or $20, whatever you desire. Even if the scratch off were fair, nobody knew where the big winners were going to be sold, still too much small win recycling to zero. They shouldn't sell tickets if the algorithm is cracked, but they do because the public gladly still buys the losing tickets.

I think you're talking about the bingo type cards where numbers are revealed before you scratch tickets off, he looked for the numbers knowing certain numbers are repeating, used for losing tickets, other combinations are reserved, actually I forget, it's been awhile. Anyways, there is an observable pattern on the outside of the ticket that is key.

Quote: DublinMeUp

Believe it or not, I just want to know how he did it mathematically as I'm not good enough at statistics/probability to figure it out on my own.

On a side note; draw games? 1/10000? Don't know what you mean.

pick 4 such as 1234, 7777, 1379, usually pays $5000 for $1 bet, depending on the state. Five dimes pays $9000, seems like a better payout.😉 So instead of buying a $5 scratcher that might be corrupt, actually unfair odds of the big ones, play $5 straight or $20, whatever you desire. Even if the scratch off were fair, nobody knew where the big winners were going to be sold, still too much small win recycling to zero. They shouldn't sell tickets if the algorithm is cracked, but they do because the public gladly still buys the losing tickets.

I think you're talking about the bingo type cards where numbers are revealed before you scratch tickets off, he looked for the numbers knowing certain numbers are repeating, used for losing tickets, other combinations are reserved, actually I forget, it's been awhile. Anyways, there is an observable pattern on the outside of the ticket that is key.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

pick 4 such as 1234, 7777, 1379, usually pays $5000 for $1 bet, depending on the state. Five dimes pays $9000, seems like a better payout.😉 So instead of buying a $5 scratcher that might be corrupt, actually unfair odds of the big ones, play $5 straight or $20, whatever you desire. Even if the scratch off were fair, nobody knew where the big winners were going to be sold, still too much small win recycling to zero. They shouldn't sell tickets if the algorithm is cracked, but they do because the public gladly still buys the losing tickets.

I don't quite follow either, fixed jackpots and scratch off's both carry a ~50% return for state lotteries.

When I was in college I spent a few summers selling tickets at a bodega that friend owned. I saw one guy hit a $2 scratcher for $10k, and another guy hit a $20 scratcher for 1 million. Not that it means anything, still a 50% return, just crazy to see that in person.

Quote: gamerfreak

I don't quite follow either, fixed jackpots and scratch off's both carry a ~50% return for state lotteries.

When I was in college I spent a few summers selling tickets at a bodega that friend owned. I saw one guy hit a $2 scratcher for $10k, and another guy hit a $20 scratcher for 1 million. Not that it means anything, still a 50% return, just crazy to see that in person.

I know 50% return is crazy, but if they're really hoping for a gigantic win, might as well cut out the bullshit, go all or nothing. The tickets are just wasting time and paper exchanging cash for nothing and almost nothing, that becomes nothing. It seems simple to me, if I play a $5 scratch ticket, the ticket must have worse odds of winning $25000 than a single $5 pick 4 play. If someone went the internet route, $45000. The tickets are basically a terrible slot machine right, and you don't even know the big tickets are AP'd and more unlikely than suspected.

Another option would be to wait until you visit a HL roulette table and drop 1000 on a number, etc., but I don't remember what the max inside numbers really are in Vegas, might only be $500.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

I know 50% return is crazy, but if they're really hoping for a gigantic win, might as well cut out the bullshit, go all or nothing. The tickets are just wasting time and paper exchanging cash for nothing and almost nothing, that becomes nothing. It seems simple to me, if I play a $5 scratch ticket, the ticket must have worse odds of winning $25000 than a single $5 pick 4 play. If someone went the internet route, $45000. The tickets are basically a terrible slot machine right, and you don't even know the big tickets are AP'd and more unlikely than suspected.

Another option would be to wait until you visit a HL roulette table and drop 1000 on a number, etc., but I don't remember what the max inside numbers really are in Vegas, might only be $500.

Oh gotcha. Yea, much better chance of a 4 figure jackpot in pick 4 over a scratcher.

I'm guilty of playing scratch offs, but I only play the bingo/crossword types that take me ~30mins to scratch if I'm taking my time. Cheap entertainment to me.

Lotteries need such a high edge because people are wagering so little in 1 sitting compared to casino games; probably less than $10 on average compared to $25/hand.

Although there were plenty of people who'd come in to the store and pay 3% to cash their paycheck then blow $50 on tickets.

We had Mohan Srivastava on GWAE a couple of times talking about this. Pretty interesting. The shows are all archived on bobdancer.com. (It is not simple to do what he did --- you cannot listen to the show and automatically go out and win a zillion bucks on the lottery.)

BTW, the same guy wrote a short story called "The Gods of Scrabble" that won some national award in Canada --- and is WONDERFUL. Do yourself a favor, Google it, and read it

Cool! Cheers for the info. Will definitely be checking those out.

Not sure how many times I'm gonna have to write this but; I just want to know how he did it ha. Sure in the first few days (years ago) when I read about it I thought I was gonna win all the monies. However in my country it'd be a useless, trust me =)