How Much Edge Do I Have Over The House?

A local casino near my house offers promotions as an incentive to attract guests. I have an option between 3 choices. I believe all 3 options will give me an advantage over the house but I would like to know exactly how much.

Promotion 1: $10 slot play.

Obviously, if I take advantage of the $10 slot play and decide to leave afterwards, I will come out ahead every single time. However, The amount of money I make will be next to nothing. I would still like to know what my advantage is and how much I can expect to make over time.

Promotion 2: $15 match bet

This is pretty much a coupon that is worth $15 as long as I use it with my own $15 in any even money bet. I would be risking $15 with a chance to make $30. Again, what would be my advantage here?

Promotion 3: $250 buyin with free $40.

I am required to buy in for $250 cash and in exchange I will be given $250 worth of chips that cannot be cashed out and 2 coupons worth $20 each. The coupons can be bet separately and will be taken away regardless if the bet wins or loses (I will not keep it even if I win). The $250 promotional chips will be paid out with real money if I win the hand.

I believe promotion 3 will give me the best advantage in the long run but please break down each one for me.

Thank you!

The value of free play, #1, depends on what games are allowed. Sometimes VP is allowed even though it is called slot play. In any case you run it through once and it will have an average value equal to the return - if slots figure maybe 80% of $10 = $8, if VP maybe 98% = $9.80 [check out the paytables]. All subject to variance.

Match play is worth slightly less than half face value - assumption being that it can only pay even money. So #2 is worth a little over $7. If my assumption is wrong, check back with us!

#3 seems the best deal. You decide how much variance and HE you want against your $250, but as per #1 above on average you can get it nearly all back. The promotional chips are again worth slightly less than half face value. So for losing maybe $5 you get nearly $20 in value on this one.

Note that variance plays a big role. You could do #3 and play the wrong thing, and lose too much. Although winning big is also possible usually controlling the variance is of interest to most of us. Some even play the BJ on the machines that pay even money on a natural to get the low, low variance for their free play etc. [edit: not possible I guess with non-neg chips]

Learn to get answers from wizard of odds dot com. The below link gives information on the various values of these different 'chips' . The values can go very high if other than even money bets are allowed. Note also values near 100% for non-neg with the right Craps and Baccarat bets.

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/

One thing to point out... I think you already know this OP, but just in case you don't... Most casinos only let you do a new member bonus one time and then you can't ever do them again.

On #3... The promotional chips. Since you don't get to keep the promotional chips you have to

A) Convert the chips to real money, which will have a negative expectation with them. Say you play your $250 on baccarat, or craps, at about a 1.5% edge (let's say for even numbers). Then your $250 will carry a negative expectation of -$3.75 with it. More importantly as odiousgambit pointed out is the VARIANCE. You could take some wild swings.

Your best bet here is to actually bet them in a "raise" game scenario. If you play UTH for example, use the promotional chips for the Play bet when you flop a strong hand. This will reduce the variance of those chips GREATLY, though you'll have a little bit more negative cost for playing the Ante-Blind with your own money. Or similarly on 3CP you could wager them there and raise with the promotional chips when you know you have a really good hand. This would still involve putting $250 of action through 3CP (at ~3% HE)... so here your negative EV would be something like -$12.

B) Use the two $20 "free play" coupons. The coupons are worth "about" half of face value, so you're getting "about" $20 out of them.

If you're losing about $12 from A, and gaining about $20 from B, then you're still only expecting back about $8... Get $10 and play it off on some kind of slot that you think is 90% payback or better (hell maybe even just ask a floor with your coupon and say you want to play on a good payback machine or something). At that point your highest return is definitely on slots, but the variance on slots is also higher.

None of these are 'tremendously' good deals other than the fact that they're "free" for signing up. None of them have much value to the player, but yes, you have a big advantage in all of them. A big advantage doesn't mean big bucks if you are limited by amount though.

I understand variance completely and I am willing to accept it because I like to think of my gambling adventure as one long session. I do not really care what happens on any given day or week.

It seems like option 3 definitely has the best odds but also the most variance. This is my understanding of it so please confirm if I am correct. The free $40 are worth half of their face value so immediately I can think of it as $20. The $250 promotional chips would have to be played and converted into real chips. Supposed I flat bet $10 a hand on a game of 3 to 2 blackjack with house edge of 0.5%. I would probably need to play more than $250 to fully convert all my money, let's say I wagered a total of $500. The house edge would take away around $2.50. I am left with around $17.5 winnner every time I take advantage of this promotion.

The analysis already given presumes that ALL the coupon and free play bets are "even money only." That could well be the case --- but it ain't necessarily so. Given the uncertainty the original poster had about which was the best bet, I'm not willing to accept "even money bets only" unless rules to that effect were clearly posted. If this is indeed a new member sign-up, they very likely have written rules which will be available if you ask for them.

And the best strategy for those coupons certainly depends on the rules.

For example, if you bet a $20 coupon on number 7 on roulette and it wins, do you collect $20 or $700 (with the understanding they take the coupon in both cases)? If the answer is $20, using the coupon for this type of bet would be pretty stupid. If it is $700, the $20 coupon is worth $18.42, which is a LOT more than half value --- with a lot of variance.

And if the 37:1 shot doesn't come in, can you shrug it off with "I had the best of the situation which the Wizard says is the right test of a good bet"? Or are you a "I ended up with nothing this time --- what a waste!" kind of guy? No matter what the odds are, not everybody has the psychological wherewithal to be an intelligent gambler.

Finally --- after the original poster has already taken advantage of this "once in a lifetime" opportunity, he should consider sharing with the rest of the group where this casino is. There will be others wishing to try this promotion out.

It seems that we've come to a conclusion that the $250 buyin is the best option assuming you can handle the variance. The $10 slots would Be the second.

If the wizard or someone with knowledge on the casino edge can please confirm whether or not my perspective on the $250 buyin is correct? I greatly appreciate it!

Quote: Donniee

Supposed I flat bet $10 a hand on a game of 3 to 2 blackjack

Just to show these considerations can be tricky, BJ is not the best choice - I think because of the typical 'pay even money' rule likely here. As I understand it, you don't wind up with the normal HE because you can't double down with the chips etc.

If the even money rule is *not* in effect, do not do BJ for sure.

Note that in the Wizard link that BJ does not return as well as some of the others no matter low normal HE. It's not crazy to do BJ ... but if you are asking, no, not the best.

PS: yes, option #3 seems the way to go.

Thank you so much. I am prettty sure that blackjack rules remain the same with the 3-2 payout on bj and double down allowed and etc.

I usually play ez baccarat and bet on banker. But that has a slightly higher house edge than 0.5%.

Quote: Donniee

Thank you so much. I am prettty sure that blackjack rules remain the same with the 3-2 payout on bj and double down allowed and etc.

I usually play ez baccarat and bet on banker. But that has a slightly higher house edge than 0.5%.

If you put your promo chips down for a double down you may be told you have to use normal chips. Maybe someone else can explain better.

Quote: odiousgambit

If you put your promo chips down for a double down you may be told you have to use normal chips. Maybe someone else can explain better.

This is a tricky scenario that is independent from casino to casino... or hell even from dealer to dealer.

At the same casino I've been allowed to double with free/match plays or promo chips, and been told I have to use real chips.

However the next dealer didn't care... Then the next dealer let me surrender and handed me back my free play entirely! Late surrender for 100% huh? Cool! The next dealer after that said I had to surrender the coupon if I wanted to surrender (thus you wouldn't want to surrender).

So it REALLY depends on the casino and the employees on what you can get away with... but one thing is certain: you should ask! Ask the BJ dealer "Hey, if I play this do I still get 3/2 on my blackjack?" and "Hey, if I play this and have to double or split, can I use more promo-chips or my free play?" Cuz if you get an 11v5 why wouldn't you want to get your coupon a 61% advantage? Finally if they have surrender I'd also ask what happens to promo chips and coupons when you surrender. These answers will more than likely drive whether or not you're playing Blackjack or Baccarat.

OP - As far as your "percent advantage" goes, it really isn't that hard to figure out... How much negative EV do you expect? How much positive EV do you expect?

Example
You can play blackjack with .5% HE with your $250 promo chips. Let's pretend you bet 25 hands of $10 (in promo chips) per hand.

EL(X hands) = (NumHands*AvgBet)*(HouseEdge)

EL(25 hands) = (25*10)*(-.005) = -$1.25

So for playing these 25 hands, you could expect to give up $1.25, but your reward would be two $20 coupons. From here you could count and play them with a positive expectation, play them only on doubles with an advantage (if you're allowed) etc. Let's be generic though and as others have stated say they're worth about half their value (~$10) so a total of $20.

EV(2 $20 FP's) = ~$20

Total Net EV = SUM(All other EV/EL) = EL(25 hands) + EV(2 $20 FP's) = -1.25 + 20 = 18.75

So normally if you were to play $250 action through you'd lose $1.25 (-.05%), but now with this "promotion" you're expecting to MAKE $18.75 (x% advantage). Solve for X? =P

You're putting $250 action through and expecting to make $18.75... soooo Action*HE = EV ===> 250x = 18.75... x = 7.5%

7.5% total edge on the total "play."

Thank you for breaking it down for me Rome. I greatly appreciate it. That is exactly what I expected except that it'll probably take more than $250 to play through the promo chips because the promo chips won't be taken away on winning wagers. I would expect around 50 bets of $10 on average.

Your answer brings me to another question. Does it matter how I use my $20 coupon? Let's say I just walk up to a baccarat table and the first thing I do is place it on banker. Does it matter whether I use my coupon first, in the middle of my session, or towards the end? Does this change from blackjack to baccarat?

Quote: Donniee

...because the promo chips won't be taken away on winning wagers...

Whoa whoa whoa... That kinda changes things (unless I just missed that earlier). I was under the impression from your first post that they TAKE the promo chips and replace them with real chips on a winning hand? If that's the case, why don't you just play something like 3CP and ONLY bet the promo chips when you have a really good hand? Or similarly play UTH and only bet the promo chips on the play bet when you have a solid hand?

Quote: Donniee

...Your answer brings me to another question. Does it matter how I use my $20 coupon? Let's say I just walk up to a baccarat table and the first thing I do is place it on banker. Does it matter whether I use my coupon first, in the middle of my session, or towards the end? Does this change from blackjack to baccarat?

Literally makes no difference whether it's the first hand of the shoe or the last (unless you want to hang around and count the cards - but I'm assuming you won't be doing that).

cause the promo chips won't be taken away on winning wagers...

Whoa whoa whoa... That kinda changes things (unless I just missed that earlier). I was under the impression from your first post that they TAKE the promo chips and replace them with real chips on a winning hand? If that's the case, why don't you just play something like 3CP and ONLY bet the promo chips when you have a really good hand? Or similarly play UTH and only bet the promo chips on the play bet when you have a solid hand?

Let's get any confusion out of the way here. For my buyin, I am provided with $250 worth of non negotiable chips which must be played until they are gone. Winning wagers are paid with real chips. I am also provided with 2 coupons worth $20 each which are taken away regardless if the wager wins or loses.

With that said, will playing 3 card poker or UTH still be advantageous? I do not know how to play those games. I usually head to EZ baccarat and immediately place the bet on banker.

What's not clear is what happens to the promo chip on a win. You get paid in real chips but does the promo chip stay there or does the dealer only take it on a loss? If it stays up, here's your best options. Scroll to page 9.


http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdf

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

What's not clear is what happens to the promo chip on a win. You get paid in real chips but does the promo chip stay there or does the dealer only take it on a loss? If it stays up, here's your best options. Scroll to page 9.


/content/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdf

The non-negotiable chips aren't taken away until after they are lost.

Quote: Donniee

The non-negotiable chips aren't taken away until after they are lost.

Then those are your best option of the three. Again, follow the chart on page 9 of the link I provided.

I bet this is right:

choice #2: match bet coupons are the normal thing, collected win or lose

choice #3: the non-neg $250, those chips are returned on a win, taken on a loss. The additional chips [or coupons] given are the ones to be taken away win or lose. OP is mixing terminology but seems to understand.

we shall see

I believe we have come to a conclusion that the non-neg $250 chips and $40 free play will be the best option. The next would be the $10 slot play and match play will be last. Thanks so much for everyone's advice!

Quote: Donniee

The non-negotiable chips aren't taken away until after they are lost.

I once had a choice between $150 FP and $200 in promo chips for a timeshare presentation. Took the promo chips. Did not realize the promo chips were "play once" promo chips.

Make sure the chips are "play until they lose" promo chips.

----
Also, what denomination are the promo chips?
If they give you five $50 chips, or two $100 chips & one $50 chip, you may not like the variance.

I get to choose exactly how I want them.

"play once" chips? Ahhh man. This is why the house will always have the edge, so many rules and restrictions that chip away at our edge!

The odd thing here though is this: The Promo Chips aren't your normal Promo Chips. They are a way for the casino to GUARANTEE action. Normally you don't have to pay ANYTHING for promo chips, and the ones you keep after winning are awesome! Here, that's not exactly the case...

The promo chips are basically your real money buy in but you MUST play them until you lose them. So really, you need to put in A LOT MORE ACTION than $250. The only way you put in $250 of action is if you lose every single hand and thus lose all $250 in promo chips!

For example, say you go to play them on Blackjack but you have a good session and win the mass majority of your hands. Well, at the end of that session you're STILL going to have promo chips you must play more... and since these are basically just your buy in money, it's not the normal good situation of "getting" to play them more but you "have" to play them more.

The negative EV from playing those over and over until you eventually lose all $250 worth is going to be much higher than originally thought... Then again thinking out loud: what's to stop you from just putting $250 on EZ baccarat dealer? If you lose you're down $250, but your negative EV is only like -$2.75. If you win, then I suppose you're free rolling them because you got your initial investment back. Though, to play them off and ever get real money for them you must eat another -$2.75 every time you play them. So the outcomes would look like this:

LOSE (-$250)... -$2.75 EV... then you've lost your $250 investment for the $40 FP.

WIN($250)... -$2.75 EV, but then you MUST play the $250 promo chips again for another -$2.75. Say you lose now, then you're "even" but with -$5.50 in EV.

WIN AGAIN so you're up $500 but have the chips you MUST play again, so another -$2.75 EV. Every time you play them you compound your negative EV since you're just regular gambling with $250 and these aren't your normal "free" promo chips.

*The idea is you don't really win unless you get really lucky (multiple times)... because if you win you MUST play them again until you lose them. When you WIN the first hand you can't stop and be up $250 even though you did what they wanted which was wager $250... No no, you must LOSE those promo chips (your money). So at the end of the day you WILL be putting $250 in promo chips in the rack (which is really just your real money). I don't like the promo chips at this point.

If you WIN $250 on your first hand, you don't really win anything you break even. If you lose, you're down $250 of your own money... Basically you can't win unless you get lucky numerous times and even then you MUST donate $250 of it back. Eww.

Quote: Romes

The odd thing here though is this: The Promo Chips aren't your normal Promo Chips. They are a way for the casino to GUARANTEE action. Normally you don't have to pay ANYTHING for promo chips, and the ones you keep after winning are awesome! Here, that's not exactly the case...

The promo chips are basically your real money buy in but you MUST play them until you lose them. So really, you need to put in A LOT MORE ACTION than $250. The only way you put in $250 of action is if you lose every single hand and thus lose all $250 in promo chips!

For example, say you go to play them on Blackjack but you have a good session and win the mass majority of your hands. Well, at the end of that session you're STILL going to have promo chips you must play more... and since these are basically just your buy in money, it's not the normal good situation of "getting" to play them more but you "have" to play them more.

The negative EV from playing those over and over until you eventually lose all $250 worth is going to be much higher than originally thought...

Yeah, you definitely do NOT want pay dollar for dollar to get these chips. The few places that do sell them usually give you more than the cost, i.e. $20 will buy you $30 promo chips.

Posting this again on a new post because I edit my posts too much lol...

*The idea is you don't really win unless you get really lucky (multiple times)... because if you win you MUST play them again until you lose them. When you WIN the first hand you can't stop and be up $250 even though you did what they wanted which was wager $250... No no, you must LOSE those promo chips (your money). So at the end of the day you WILL be putting $250 in promo chips in the rack (which is really just your real money). I don't like the promo chips at this point.

If you WIN $250 on your first hand, you don't really win anything you break even. If you lose, you're down $250 of your own money... Basically you can't win unless you get lucky numerous times and even then you MUST donate $250 of it back. Eww.

Is this promo once or daily?

With all the discussion, I would hope that its daily and not just once.

Romes, I hadn't thought about this angle. Wow. In a sense the non-neg money is doomed. I now am fairly sure #3 is not a good choice after all - it's actually stingy.

Quote: AxelWolf

Is this promo once or daily?

With all the discussion, I would hope that its daily and not just once.

lol no pretty sure it's just once.

Quote: odiousgambit

Romes, I hadn't thought about this angle. Wow. In a sense the non-neg money is doomed. I now am fairly sure #3 is not a good choice after all - it's actually stingy.

Yeah I'm pretty sure I'd take the match plays and play them off on either 3CP or UTH play bets when I have the hand fairly locked (if you're going to gamble anyways).

Now we gotta ask this. What would be the best price to purchase the promo chips? $200? $190? Etc.

Edit: Never-mind, this should be easy to figure out.

I understand what you are saying but even with that said, the promo chips still give us the best odds long run. You basically summed up what I mentioned earlier in detail. I already expect to wager around $500 in order to clear my promo chips. $500 at 1.06% is $5.3.

I receive $40 free chips which has a face value of $20. $20 - $5.30 would still give me a profit of $14.70 on average.

Quote: Donniee

I understand what you are saying but even with that said, the promo chips still give us the best odds long run. You basically summed up what I mentioned earlier in detail. I already expect to wager around $500 in order to clear my promo chips. $500 at 1.06% is $5.3.

I receive $40 free chips which has a face value of $20. $20 - $5.30 would still give me a profit of $14.70 on average.

No, you're not getting the bigger picture. You don't just have to run action through... YOU HAVE TO LOSE THE $250 IN PROMO CHIPS. You MUST lose them as you have no way else of converting them. So when you purchase $250 in promo chips for $250, you're kissing that $250 goodbye and you must now get LUCKY to not be down $250.

Think of the promotion without the "promo" chips but instead you just need to put $250 in action through. Say you go to a table and bet $250 of your own money on Banker (EZ Bac). You win... You're now UP $250 and you put $250 in action through to get your $40 FP. You can take your winnings and put them in your pocket, cash out your bet of $250 and your winnings of $250 for $500 cash in your pocket.

With THIS promotion, you can't do that. You can put your $250 winnings in your pocket (if you're lucky enough to win), but you MUST play the "promo" chips until they're lost. So you're buying in on those chips knowing that you WILL lose them at some point. You can't just win and leave, you must lose your $250. This is really really shady on the casino part because people hear "promo chips" and get excited because normally these are given away as a prize or over the top of the cost (i.e. spend $150 and get $250 in promo chips). That's what makes them worthwhile to the player... but if you're paying dollar for dollar for a promo chip, then you're really just converting your dollars in to a guaranteed loss.

I wouldn't touch Option #3. I'd actually take option #2 and play them on 3CP or UTH when I had a "lock" on the hand.

He said he gets the $250 in promos as $5 chips. If he min bets $5, it's very very doubtful he'll be down $250 once they're all converted.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

He said he gets the $250 in promos as $5 chips. If he min bets $5, it's very very doubtful he'll be down $250 once they're all converted.

Whether you bet $5 at a time or $250 at a time the principle is all the same... He must lose the $250 in promo chips.

Sure. All he's asking though, is which of the three options has the highest expected return.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdf

From page 3: "If the match-play is saved on ties, which seems to be more prevalent
than the alternative, then Three Card Poker becomes an attractive possibility. The strategy is to
place $20 live on the Ante. On any hand A76 or weaker, place an additional $10 live with the
match-play coupon on the Play bet; on any hand A82 or stronger, use a full $20 live cash on the
Play, saving the match-play coupon in your pocket for use on a subsequent hand. This approach
earns an expected $5.36, and should satisfy the even-money restriction, since the Play bet never
pays more than 1:1."

This is based on a $10 match play. So multiply the figues by the 1.5 for a $15 one. I get a return of $16.08 for two $15 MPs on TCP. correct me if I'm wrong.

I get an expectation of $23.335 running the promo chips on banker in baccarat then using the 2 free bets on TCP.

Quote: Romes

No, you're not getting the bigger picture. You don't just have to run action through... YOU HAVE TO LOSE THE $250 IN PROMO CHIPS. You MUST lose them

Unless I'm mistaken, terminology is getting mixed up, at least to my taste. I will reply using the terminology the Wizard uses in that link, which is match-play chips, promotional chips, and non-negotional chips [non-neg]

The $250 that 'must be lost' is then in non-neg chips. It is certainly also the case that they can be converted to cash by never using any winnings during the cycles. So for the pass-line in Craps, say, one time through would leave you nearly $125 [on avg], next time nearly half that, etc. [edit]

say;
120+55+25+10+5 then bust = 215

So from that perspective, the incentive needs to be sweeter than #3 gives. This is an AP perspective, sort of "take what you can from this deal and bye-bye, ain't playing here no more"

Another perspective is that if a non-AP player is going to continue to gamble and the non-neg chips don't expire, then they are just as good as his own money.

Yet I would still say #3 is not as attractive as it should be.

Don't forget, number three gets 2 $20 free bet coupons as well. I'd take #3 and do the scenario I posted above.

Quote: odiousgambit

Unless I'm mistaken, terminology is getting mixed up, at least to my taste. I will reply using the terminology the Wizard uses in that link, which is match-play chips, promotional chips, and non-negotional chips [non-neg]

The $250 that 'must be lost' is then in non-neg chips. It is certainly also the case that they can be converted to cash by never using any winnings during the cycles. So for the pass-line in Craps, say, one time through would leave you nearly $125 [on avg], next time nearly half that, etc. [edit]

say;
120+55+25+10+5 then bust = 215

So from that perspective, the incentive needs to be sweeter than #3 gives. This is an AP perspective, sort of "take what you can from this deal and bye-bye, ain't playing here no more"

Another perspective is that if a non-AP player is going to continue to gamble and the non-neg chips don't expire, then they are just as good as his own money.

Yet I would still say #3 is not as attractive as it should be.

$250 promo chips on pass line is worth an expected return of $243.025 ($6.075 loss)

$250 bonus is definitely still the best option. It is true that they must be played until they are lost. But let's be realistic, most people going to the casino would have lost at least $250 worth of wagers. My winning wagers will be paid out in real chips which will go into my pocket. I can continue betting the non-Neg chips.

The $250 non-neg chips can really just be played like real money. Whether I win or lose money on any given day, that is the variance. In the end, our results will be very close to the house edge. But we have already agreed that the free $40 will overcome that edge.

Thank you for answering my question everybody!

Quote: Donniee

$250 bonus is definitely still the best option. It is true that they must be played until they are lost. But let's be realistic, most people going to the casino would have lost at least $250 worth of wagers. My winning wagers will be paid out in real chips which will go into my pocket. I can continue betting the non-Neg chips.

The $250 non-neg chips can really just be played like real money. Whether I win or lose money on any given day, that is the variance. In the end, our results will be very close to the house edge. But we have already agreed that the free $40 will overcome that edge.

Thank you for answering my question everybody!

Which ever option you choose, fill us in on the results of how you do.

Today was my first day taking advantage of the $250 bonus. I placed the $20 coupon bets on banker in ez bac. I won one and lost one as expected.

I played $10 flat bets for the rest of my money at a 3-2 bj table playing perfect basic strategy. I ended with $365 for the day with a net of $115.

It will all eventually average out to a profit of around $17 per day. Variance was on my side today.