Count of blackjack transactions

I am struggling to calculate a blackjack number and think this forum is my only hope (I can't model it myself on excel!)

I'm trying to answer the question: How many transactions can I expect to see on average in a game of blackjack where a transaction would be:

1) Start game

then potentially based on what you are dealt:

2) Take insurance
3) Split
4) Double

and finally I only need to count transaction where we win the hand so:

5) Win %

Ideally I'd like to be able to calculate the average transaction both under normal conditions say if I played basic strategy and then say to calculate on the more cautions side to work out closer to a maximum (if I gambled it up) - or maybe be able to say so many SD's from the average?

Has anyone published anything like this before?

My rule-set proposal is:

• Dealer stands on soft 17
• Blackjack payout ratio: 3:2
• Number of decks: 4 (reshuffle after every round)
• Insurance is available:
o Dealer peeks for BJ on a first card Ace after insurance is accepted/declined
o Insurance stake is 50% of the main bet stake
o Insurance payout ratio: 2:1
• Doubling is available:
o Only on 9-11 hand value
• Splitting is available:
o Only cards of the same rank can be split (e.g. No splitting of 10 & queen)
o Splitting is only allowed once
o No hitting on split aces
o Doubling on split is allowed
• No surrendering

Hi rosscogetrich, and welcome to the forums.

The win% is a well known and defined 42% (push 9%, lose 49%).

The rule set you described (assuming continuous shuffler) is .5%... average, not great. Also, with it being on a CSM unless you're playing clumps (which I wouldn't recommend due to this being like poor penetration and requiring huge bet spread/variance/bankroll), or using another known AP technique, you're not going to beat this game... I only say that because I get the sense that you want to try to use the gamblers fallacy to win. It feels from your post as though you want to know how often things happen so during a session you can say "I've only gotten 1 blackjack and should have gotten 4 by now, time to up my bet!" which is the gamblers fallacy that you're "due" to hit and it will lead you down a path of losing.

For that regard, do you mind if I ask what you would do with said information?

EDIT: You might also want to stop posting the same thread over and over on your first day here... It'll get you in a bit of trouble =).

Yeah sorry any moderators! Please feel free to move/keep the question on the correct forum.

Although I've fallen into the gamblers fallacy before this is actually a gaming software question. I need to provide the number of transaction calls a roulette, blackjack and video slot would make to an e-wallet based on a range of users. The roulette and video slot you'll not be surprised to hear are pretty simple - but Blackjack is a bit more complicated!

There is obviously the one transaction to take the initial bet - but then after this there will be another if / when we split, double, take insurance and then a final if we win the hand. These things all happen based on our hole cards and technically the dealers up card - which I'm struggling to simulate with my pretty basic knowledge of excel.

So I'm actually looking for the average number of bets you're likely to make in any given blackjack hand, and then adding another transaction based on the % of hands you're expected to win.

Yeah sorry any moderators! Please feel free to move/keep the question on the correct forum.

Although I've fallen into the gamblers fallacy before this is actually a gaming software question. I need to provide the number of transaction calls a roulette, blackjack and video slot would make to an e-wallet based on a range of users. The roulette and video slot you'll not be surprised to hear are pretty simple - but Blackjack is a bit more complicated!

There is obviously the one transaction to take the initial bet - but then after this there will be another if / when we split, double, take insurance and then a final if we win the hand. These things all happen based on our hole cards and technically the dealers up card - which I'm struggling to simulate with my pretty basic knowledge of excel.

So I'm actually looking for the average number of bets you're likely to make in any given blackjack hand, and then adding another transaction based on the % of hands you're expected to win.

Ah, well I would think if you could program basic strategy in excel you could work out the probability of getting the double hands, or the split hands, etc. Also, I just typed in google "How often do you split in blackjack?" and the first hit was a site that had the numbers for split and double. Happy hunting =).