Past numbers have *NOTHING* to do with future events?
So if I do have the advantage (as you have stated), past numbers CAN BE USED for future betting. There is an ADVANTAGE to using past numbers for betting....correct? Ken
Quote: mrjjj"I flip a coin five times" >>> Your example is much different and you SHOULD know why. There are only TWO outcomes with the coin. Mine, there are 38 different outcomes. During those last 13 spins, there is a chance you and I will get NO hits. With your coin toss example, someone WILL WIN.
So if I do have the advantage (as you have stated), past numbers CAN BE USED for future betting. There is an ADVANTAGE to using past numbers for betting....correct? Ken
Not for any future betting that actually exists in a casino. Why do you think the casino will only accept a Fire Bet on a brand new shooter?
The difference between two outcomes for a coin and 38 for roulette is not relevant for the principle we're talking about.
I'm done with you.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
You are ON RECORD >>> So I do have the advantage (as you have stated), past numbers CAN BE USED for future betting. There is an ADVANTAGE to using past numbers for betting. By many, that is also called gamblers fallacy. People hate that term but you cant have it both ways. If the challenge would be deemed UNFAIR, its gamblers fallacy on your head. Ken (I see Herb/Snowman/Keyser has STILL not taken a side. lol Big surprise, he likes to stay in the middle. Its safe in the middle)
actual spins from a roulette wheel. I used Roulette Xtreme software to get the snapshots.
maybe others can see what your challenge is all about.
remember: top number is last number spun
How the distribution of the last 25 spins looks like plotted on the wheel.(a very nice software feature)
according to mrjjj "rules" he can only chose 3 numbers from the 4 that have hit exactly twice.The ones with the green dots.
gives mrjjj 4 possible choices. What number will he leave out???
(There is always a possibility of more or less numbers that have exactly 2 hits but this example will be used for now.)
(In a casino he might actually wager on all 4 numbers, that is another story)
mrjjj can NOT chose #19 red since that number already has hit 3 times. The one with the red dots.
mrjjj will now select, for someone else, 3 numbers from the group of 19 numbers that have yet to hit.
(I think mrjjj should allow any one to choose their own 3 numbers from the non-hit pool, but he set the rules.)
He who wins,there could be no winner, is the one who has MORE 3 hits or more than the other.
remember: top number is last number spun. Here are the next 13 spins.
The yellow dots show the 4 numbers mrjjj would have chosen 3 from.
How the distribution of the last 38 spins looks like plotted on the wheel.
Quote: mrjjj@scotty81 >> You were wrong in the way you interpreted it. I re-posted it for YOU, take your time. Ken
You didn't address whether or not my two scenarios accurately depict the challenge.
You pick three numbers that have come up two times in the 25 spins, and select three numbers for me that have zero hits.
Then, in the next 13 spins all of my numbers come in twice. Only one of your numbers comes in once. So, I have a total of 6 hits in the next 13 spins, and you only have one hit.
Who wins the challenge?
If you win the challenge, are you saying it is fair?
Quote: mrjjjI will pick 3 numbers that I think will have 3 hits on it by 38 (or 37) spins. *BUT* I also get to pick ANY 3 numbers for you, you dont get to choose your numbers.
At the end of 38 numbers, we'll see who has the most numbers with 3 hits.
Ken
His first post shows these rules.
He can choose any numbers for himself. I thought he could only choose from numbers that have hit twice. That would give him the greatest advantage.
Quote: mrjjj"In short, you are pointless waste of time to discuss this with" >>> Then why post thecesspit and ruascott? Why waste your time and my time? Ken
Because I was hoping the clue stick had dropped on your head.
It hadn't. Such a shame.
Your question reads like this:
"Which fruit do you prefer :
a) melons
b) fire trucks
You must answer A or B, you can't answer both!"
Quote: thecesspitYou must answer A or B, you can't answer both!"
But if you pick A and then switch to B, your answer is now worth 1.25A. And then if you switch back ...
Quote: thecesspitBecause I was hoping the clue stick had dropped on your head.
It hadn't. Such a shame.
Your question reads like this:
"Which fruit do you prefer :
a) melons
b) fire trucks
You must answer A or B, you can't answer both!"
You continue to hold out hope for jjj. I applaud your optimism, but it's sort of like Linus waiting for the Great Pumpkin to show up.
I expect jjj to now post a response that will contain 1) an assertion that he is a BIG WINNER, 2) an insult of some kind, 3) at least two misplaced (as in, written by someone who barely understands English) "lol"s, and 4) a diarrheal spurt of breathtaking illogic.
Quote: MathExtremistBut if you pick A and then switch to B, your answer is now worth 1.25A. And then if you switch back ...
Oooooh, we should debate this for another 600 or so posts. Most, if not all of them, should attempt to articulate a mathematical argument that definitively shows WHY you can't turn a melon into a fire truck, and vice versa. We need mathematics to help us understand such things.
Quote: mrjjjIn 37/38 spins, on average, there are 3 numbers with 3 hits on it. Sometimes 2 numbers, sometimes 4 numbers, whatever.
mrjjj knows his math and/or has empirical data to validate his statement.
My math table (binomail distribution) shows 2.9572 is the average number with 3 hits or more.
Quote: mrjjjLets say its the numbers 5, 17 and 34. I am looking for a YES or a NO to this question......try not to DRIFT from the question. Didn't those three numbers have to have two hits on them (within 37/38) BEFORE it had 3 hits? The number 5 is not going to magically jump from having ONE hit on it, then out of no where, it has 3 hits on it.
Yes, of course
Quote: mrjjjMy point being, if PAST numbers mean nothing, then HOW is it that we can gage that there will 2-4 numbers with 3 hits on them?
Because past numbers will establish a probability. p=n/N to be exact for roulette. Binomial distribution formula works well to establish the averages.
Or many, many simulations can do the same thing.
I think you already know that.
Quote: mrjjjAll numbers are independant from one another, PAST NUMBERS MEAN NOTHING". Ken
All spins in roulette are independent from one another, yes exactly.
"PAST NUMBERS MEAN NOTHING" is an incomplete statement.
past numbers can not alter or change the probability of the very next spin. That has been stated in other posts.next spin prob 1/37 or 1/38. we all know that.
Since you are using the past 25 spins, or precisely, the last 25 spins, you are using those numbers to establish a probability that is different from the 1/38.
One can pick ANY 25 numbers from the last 100 spins or so, if they are available, they do not have to be the exact last 25, to establish a probability. Once a probability is established, it can be applied to the very next spin or future spins. That also has been pointed out.
I think you already know that.
So, if you want me to select "A" or "B" for your survey, they are not the same and as already posted, both are correct.
Yes, we can pity the poor soul who does not see a difference between the two.
wait!
can I change my vote?
I just cleaned my glasses.
I sure like the way Raquel Welsh looks these days. It is not only about looks. She has a fantastic smile.
Quote: nope27Hmmmm
wait!
can I change my vote?
I just cleaned my glasses.
I sure like the way Raquel Welsh looks these days. It is not only about looks. She has a fantastic smile.
You might want to clean them again. lol!
"If the number has hit twice in the last 25 times, the odds that it will hit in the next 13 spins is 1-(37/38)^13 = .292974.
If the number has hit 24 times in the last 25 spins, the odds that it will hit on the next spin is still 1/38. AND THE ODDS THAT IT WILL HIT IN THE NEXT 13 SPINS IS 1-(37/38)^13=.292974.
The past spins have absolutely nothing to do with the odds that a number will hit in the future. Not at all. Not even a little bit". <<< So my question. Why has nobody addressed rdw4potus regarding his view, only my posts? (We'll see how many answer this, lol) Ken
Quote: mrjjj@goatcabin, MarieBicurie, nope27 and OTHERS >> rdw4potus (page 12)has stated >>>
"If the number has hit twice in the last 25 times, the odds that it will hit in the next 13 spins is 1-(37/38)^13 = .292974.
If the number has hit 24 times in the last 25 spins, the odds that it will hit on the next spin is still 1/38. AND THE ODDS THAT IT WILL HIT IN THE NEXT 13 SPINS IS 1-(37/38)^13=.292974.
The past spins have absolutely nothing to do with the odds that a number will hit in the future. Not at all. Not even a little bit". <<< So my question. Why has nobody addressed rdw4potus regarding his view, only my posts? (We'll see how many answer this, lol) Ken
Because everyone - except you - agrees with it.
Quote: mrjjj"Because everyone - except you - agrees with it" >>> lol, Have you read any of these posts? Most (not all) say that picking numbers with two hits ALREADY on them, is UNFAIR. rdw4potus has said that it makes NO DIFFERENCE. You wanna try and answer this again? Another example, some want it BOTH ways. Ken
<REDACTED>
Quote: mrjjj
BOTH
ESTABLISH
CHANGE
ALREADY
UNFAIR
NO DIFFERENCE
BOTH
Ken, are you just shouting for the fun of it, or do you actually not understand the difference between counting to 3 starting from 0 vs. counting to 3 starting from 2?
"If the number has hit twice in the last 25 times, the odds that it will hit in the next 13 spins is 1-(37/38)^13 = .292974.
If the number has hit 24 times in the last 25 spins, the odds that it will hit on the next spin is still 1/38. AND THE ODDS THAT IT WILL HIT IN THE NEXT 13 SPINS IS 1-(37/38)^13=.292974.
The past spins have absolutely nothing to do with the odds that a number will hit in the future. Not at all. Not even a little bit".
Quote: scotty81You didn't address whether or not my two scenarios accurately depict the challenge.
You pick three numbers that have come up two times in the 25 spins, and select three numbers for me that have zero hits.
Then, in the next 13 spins all of my numbers come in twice. Only one of your numbers comes in once. So, I have a total of 6 hits in the next 13 spins, and you only have one hit.
Who wins the challenge?
If you win the challenge, are you saying it is fair? >>>
So I have a number with 3 hits and you have no numbers with 3 hits....I win. Like I said in the first post, this would be done for 30 groups of 38 so we dont have any sort of bias in the results. Why do I have to repeat this again? Most are MISSING the point of this. F**k the challenge! This is about having TWO different views, thats all its about. Some here (and other boards) have said, past numbers IN ANY MANNER mean nothing, even those first 25 spins. BUT, some of those same people (not all) will say this is an unfair challenge, under THIS scenario. For THOSE posters, you can NOT have both opinions. Ken
Quote: MathExtremistKen, are you just shouting for the fun of it, or do you actually not understand the difference between counting to 3 starting from 0 vs. counting to 3 starting from 2?
He actually doesn't understand, appalling as that may be. He also LOOOOOOVES to argue; that may be his raison d'etre.
Less hardy souls than you have already given up on him.
Quote: mrjjjQuote: scotty81You didn't address whether or not my two scenarios accurately depict the challenge.
You pick three numbers that have come up two times in the 25 spins, and select three numbers for me that have zero hits.
Then, in the next 13 spins all of my numbers come in twice. Only one of your numbers comes in once. So, I have a total of 6 hits in the next 13 spins, and you only have one hit.
Who wins the challenge?
If you win the challenge, are you saying it is fair?
>>>
So I have a number with 3 hits and you have no numbers with 3 hits....I win. Like I said in the first post, this would be done for 30 groups of 38 so we dont have any sort of bias in the results. Why do I have to repeat this again? Most are MISSING the point of this. F**k the challenge! This is about having TWO different views, thats all its about. Some here (and other boards) have said, past numbers IN ANY MANNER mean nothing, even those first 25 spins. BUT, some of those same people (not all) will say this is an unfair challenge, under THIS scenario. For THOSE posters, you can NOT have both opinions. Ken
Answer my question: under this scenario are YOU saying this is a fair challenge?
Also, I never asked you to repeat your challenge. I merely asked if this scenario was correct. From near as I can tell:
--I get 6 hits on my three numbers in the next 13 spins (two hits for each number - an extraordinary performance).
--You get 1 hit on on only one of your numbers
--These hits occur on the spins AFTER the numbers are selected
--You win - I lose.
--You think it is fair.
I don't.
--You believe that past spins can influence future results.
I don't.
It's as simple as that. I'm not going to change your mind, and you're not going to change mine.
Because I'm right, and you're wrong.
"Answer my question: under this scenario are YOU saying this is a fair challenge?" >>> I'm not trying to dodge you, I want to make sure I understand your point/question, thats all. I think this challenge is unfair, I *NEVER* said the opposite. I would have the advantage and THATS A GOOD THING! Past numbers CAN successfully be used for future betting. Every day of every week? No, but in general? Sure. Ken
And fire engines.
Quote: thecesspitI really like melons.
And fire engines.
And it would certainly be much more fun if we all lived in Mr jjj's imaginary world, where you can change one into the other at will.
Though I don't really know if it would be a good thing if firemen arrived at a fire armed with nothing but melons, nor would I want to see a fire engine on my salad bar.
Quote: mkl654321He actually doesn't understand, appalling as that may be. He also LOOOOOOVES to argue; that may be his raison d'etre.
I'm not sure about the former. I don't think anyone can honestly not get the difference between betting on future independent outcomes and what's known as "in-running betting" -- that is, betting during the middle of a game where the beginning affects the end. Cantor Gaming is providing that feature for the sportsbooks at the M, Venetian and Palazzo. In a nutshell, you can make football bets after the opening kickoff. Obviously the odds will change once a few plays (or quarters) have passed. It's a fine discussion to have, but it's totally divorced from roulette. In roulette, you can't offer in-running betting because there's no "game" per se. Each spin is independent of each other spin and there's no "final score". If you artificially create a game, such as the proposed game to 3 where I start at 0 and you start at 2, then you can offer in-running betting on it. I'd be a fool to take your bet, at least at even-money. However, there's a significant difference. In football, the score midway through a game often gives clues to the probability of each team scoring again. In roulette, the probabilities don't change regardless of what the artificial "score" already is. Past numbers don't influence future numbers (lip balm notwithstanding).
Quote:Less hardy souls than you have already given up on him.
Fair enough, but I'm a professional - it's my job to explain these things. For this particular assignment, however, perhaps I'll recuse myself.
