NerfGun123
NerfGun123
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Joined: Jan 5, 2016
January 5th, 2016 at 5:49:40 PM permalink
I was wondering if anyone knew the probability of Flopping top 2 pair three times in a row and lose three times in a row with runner runner with only one over ?
I was playing at the Choctaw Casino wsop event there were 2700 entries I finished 36th...... My fate was abruptly ended by these four hands . I went from 3rd in chips to finishing in 36th in 4 hands in a row Here were my hands

1ST HAND KQ suited Lost to A 4 off Flop - K , Q , 5 , A , A No flush Draws

2ND Hand AQ off Lost to 78 suited Flop - A , 2 , Q , 8 , 8 no flush draws

3rd Hand AJ off Lost to 9,10 suited Flop - A , 6 , J , 9 , 9 no flush draw

4th Hand QQ Vs AK lost to king on turn <----- was classic but it was the hand that dealt the final blow. but all were in consecutive hands

I know this happens , but 4 in a row ? I wish I could figure the odds thx for your help if it is even possible lol
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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Joined: May 21, 2013
January 7th, 2016 at 12:24:27 AM permalink
Hand Your Odds Their Odds
1a 45.63% 53.90%
1b 90.00% 10.00%
1c 81.82% 18.18%

2a 58.24% 41.39%
2b 99.39% .61%
2c 95.45% 4.55%

3a 59.07% 40.53%
3b 91.21% 8.79%
3c 95.45% 4.55%

4a 56.10% 43.40%
4b 73.23% 26.77%
4c 4.55% 95.45%
Starting values of these hands head-to-head(all hands had a slight chance of tying) a=pre-flop b= post-flop c= post turn

So, I guess the simplest thing is to multiply the 2nd column, since each won in turn. If that's correct methodology, there was a 3.92% chance of you losing all 4 of those hands. (I am not a math guy, but I suspect one or more of them will chime in if there's a better way of calculating it.)

Sorry you ran bad. Very frustrating to be put out like that on decent hands. Welcome to the forum!

BTW, calculator I used can be found here.

This method of calculating doesn't take into account the extra frustration you had that they turn/rivered you on all 4. I'm not sure I know how to figure that, but given the great flops you had, it probably raised your chances considerably above your starting hand each time (and probably your betting patterns) post-flop.

If we take the post-flop point in all 4 hands multiplied together, you had a .0014% chance of losing all 4 hands. Post-turn, it went up some to .0359% chance of losing all 4. And of course, post-river you had 100% chance. :(

That still doesn't fully take into account how unusual it is to flop 2 pair 3x in a row, but it's the best I can do.
Last edited by: beachbumbabs on Jan 7, 2016
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
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