Craps EV when playing full odds
Thread Rating:
If you throw a 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12 on the come-out, your total bet is $10, but if you throw anything else, it's $110.
If you limit it to the cases where you have a point (and the bet is always $110):
Your point is 4 or 10 1/4 of the time (remember, you are only counting point numbers here, so it's 3/24 for each of the 4 and 10)
2/3 of the time, you lose $110; 1/3 of the time, you win $210
Your point is 5 or 9 1/3 of the time
3/5 of the time, you lose $110; 2/5 of the time, you win $160
Your point is 6 or 8 5/12 of the time
6/11 of the time, you lose $110; 5/11 of the time, you win $130
The EV is ( 1/4 x (1/3 x 210 - 2/3 x 110) + 1/3 x (2/5 x 160 - 3/5 x 110) + 5/12 x (5/11 x 130 - 6/11 x 110) ) / 110
= (1/4 x (-10/3) + 1/3 x (-10/5) + 5/12 x (-10/11)) / 110
= -(5/6 + 2/3 + 25/66) / 110 = - 124 / 7260 = -1.708%
Yes, that is worse than the -1.41 without odds, but remember, the 1.41 includes when you win with a 7 or 11, whereas the 1.708 does not.
Quote: PlloenForgive my poor math skills guys, but at least I'm here to learn! I know how to calculate the -1.41% expected value on the pass line, and I know there is now house edge on your odds bet, but how might I calculate the expected value of a pass line bet, assuming I will play max odds? I'd like to see a general formula, but if it makes it easier, we can use 100% odds because that's what I have here in Chicago. (So if I put $10 on the pass line for the come out roll and back it up with 100 after establishing a point, what's my EV on my total $110 bet?) Thanks in advance!
You can find the formula on this Wizard Of Odds Page
See "Combined Pass and Buying Odds".
$10 bet with 10X odds has a House Edge of 0.18%
Quote: MathExtremistThat means if you play $10 pass bets for 2 hours, you expect to lose about $10 - again regardless of how much you take in odds.
So how do serious gamblers eliminate this "expect to lose" attitude? I play to win, not as was mentioned, for recreation and fun. It's a tough job but someone's got to do it.
Quote: NokTangSo how do serious gamblers eliminate this "expect to lose" attitude? I play to win, not as was mentioned, for recreation and fun. It's a tough job but someone's got to do it.
If you play a negative expectation casino game expecting to win and not for recreation or fun, well, good luck with that!
Quote: MrVa negative expectation
As related, it isn't a "negative expectation" game unless you are a negative person and/or don't believe in a greater being, one which controls all outcomes, and one which you can influence with your own behavior and thoughts. Not to get religious with you, but you gotta believe sometimes mate.
Quote: PlloenIf taking the odds actually make it worse, would you be better off just putting the whole $110 on the pass line for the come out roll and crossing your fingers?
L2FR
Let's remember how long it takes to realize a pass, on average.
The calculation is 1 * 12/36 + (36/9) * 6/36 + (36/10) * 8/36 + 10/36 (36/11) = 2.709 rolls.
You expected values is 110 * ((8-4)/36) + (6/36 *((3-6)/9) + 8/36 * ((4-6)/10) + 10/36 * ((5-6)/11)) or -$1.5556 or $.5742 / roll.
If you put 10x odds on a $10 bet then you make out differently
Your expected value is 10*((8-4)/36)+(6/36)*(21*3-11*6)/9+(8/36)*(16*4-11*6)/10+(10/36)*(13*5-11*6)/11) = -$.1414 / bet or about $.0522 / roll. (Surprise surprise it is 1/11th of a $110 bet).
Clearly it is better to do a $10 pass and back it up with odds. Odds are free from an EV standpoint but it costs you variance of course.
it does not make IT worseQuote: PlloenIf taking the odds actually make it worse,
you totally mis-under-stood-the-reply for
ONLY when a point is established.
a very common error many due make
"better off" means exactly what?Quote: Plloenwould you be better off just putting the whole $110 on the pass line for the come out roll and crossing your fingers?
a better off expected value?
Frank Scoblete, a self-proclaimed craps expert says a proper-craps-session-bankroll = 10X your spread.
so you make $110 bets you should have a bankroll of $1100
******************
the probability to double the bankroll B4 ruin is 42.9755901%
taking $10 pass and $100 odds gives one a 47.9% chance to double the same bankroll
******************
so making the smaller bet and taking the odds is
WAY BETTER to double bankroll B4 ruin
simple
if you play a system that can not due better, it ain't better
no better
no way better
please explain as your threads are very intimidating and confusing to read
in my opinion
You're not using the same meaning of "expectation" as I am. It's a calculable number, not a mental outlook. Wishing really hard doesn't change the house edge. Vegas casinos wouldn't exist were that otherwise.Quote: NokTangAs related, it isn't a "negative expectation" game unless you are a negative person and/or don't believe in a greater being, one which controls all outcomes, and one which you can influence with your own behavior and thoughts. Not to get religious with you, but you gotta believe sometimes mate.
That first 12/36 should be 1 instead, fyi. You always make the first roll. Alternately, add 1 to 36/9, 36/10, and 36/11 to account for the comeout.Quote: boymimboLet's remember how long it takes to realize a pass, on average.
The calculation is 1 * 12/36 + (36/9) * 6/36 + (36/10) * 8/36 + 10/36 (36/11) = 2.709 rolls.
Quote: NokTangSo how do serious gamblers eliminate this "expect to lose" attitude? I play to win, not as was mentioned, for recreation and fun. It's a tough job but someone's got to do it.
I don't even look at it as an "expect to lose" situation. As soon as I've made a bet with a house edge, I know I have already lost no matter how the dice or cards turn up (but when it's a loss of only seven cents for a table minimum bet, I'm ok with it on occasion). The only way to eliminate it is to make bets where the player has the edge. I can do it at craps fairly easily and routinely, though not necessarily as regularly or for as much money as some people like.
Quote: MathExtremistWishing really hard doesn't change the house edge. Vegas casinos wouldn't exist were that otherwise.
Another non-believer. Where is Dr. Carson when you need him most? In said Doctor's example, he to repeat said people go into prison straight, and come out gay, proving being gay is learned. Same applies to the so called "house edge" and all this "EV" and "AP" stuff. If you believe in such nonsense and ignore the surroundings you find yourself, you are bound to lose. Winning is earned, not learned.
Quote: NokTangAnother non-believer. Where is Dr. Carson when you need him most? In said Doctor's example, he to repeat said people go into prison straight, and come out gay, proving being gay is learned. Same applies to the so called "house edge" and all this "EV" and "AP" stuff. If you believe in such nonsense and ignore the surroundings you find yourself, you are bound to lose. Winning is earned, not learned.
I assume you're a lifetime winner at the craps table, yes?
Quote: NokTangAnother non-believer. Where is Dr. Carson when you need him most? In said Doctor's example, he to repeat said people go into prison straight, and come out gay, proving being gay is learned. Same applies to the so called "house edge" and all this "EV" and "AP" stuff. If you believe in such nonsense and ignore the surroundings you find yourself, you are bound to lose. Winning is earned, not learned.
Very good point. Playing any casino game with a house advantage is very much like being gay. I am completely baffled why anyone would ever make either of those choices
wow!Quote: MathExtremistThat first 12/36 should be 1 instead, fyi.
You always make the first roll. Alternately, add 1 to 36/9, 36/10, and 36/11 to account for the comeout.
why be so silly?
add 1
sounds silly
not to mention Alternately
***** (5 stars)
1 + (36/9) * 6/36 + (36/10) * 8/36 + 10/36 * (36/11) =
3+62/165 =
about 3.375757576
Sally
Quote: NokTangAs related, it isn't a "negative expectation" game unless you are a negative person and/or don't believe in a greater being, one which controls all outcomes, and one which you can influence with your own behavior and thoughts. Not to get religious with you, but you gotta believe sometimes mate.
Really?
"Believe" in what, exactly?
I believe in science, nature, and objective reality.
I categorically reject religion as the societal codification of superstition in aid of exerting power over others.
Ummmm, variance. Although "believe" may not be the precisely correct verb.Quote: MrVReally? "Believe" in what, exactly?
Free drinks?Quote: TomGVery good point. Playing any casino game with a house advantage is very much like being gay. I am completely baffled why anyone would ever make either of those choices
Or over acetate cubes, for that matter. But if he thinks fervent belief can change the house edge, I'll fade his any 7 action all day long.Quote: MrVReally?
"Believe" in what, exactly?
I believe in science, nature, and objective reality.
I categorically reject religion as the societal codification of superstition in aid of exerting power over others.
Quote: MrVReally?
"Believe" in what, exactly?
I believe in science, nature, and objective reality.
I categorically reject religion as the societal codification of superstition in aid of exerting power over others.
Not power over others, power over results such as in craps or roulette where there is no human element.
Quote: RSI assume you're a lifetime winner at the craps table, yes?
To repeat once again, craps and roulette are about not being a chicken shit and jumping on a streak. Had I followed my now learned system I would in fact be a lifetime winner at many things, including craps.
