Math / Fantasy Baseball

Looking for a Mathematical way to do this if there is a way

Have to pick seven players on my team and can only spend 141
The following are my players listed in projection order based on projected homeruns...the number next to them is there value...again 141 or less to spend.

Question: How do I put together my best rated seven man team while spending 141 or less?

Miguel Cabrera 25
Chris Davis 26
Edwin Encarnacion 34
Mark Trumbo 14
Pedro Alvarez 18
Adrian Beltre 19
Adam Jones 29
Jay Bruce 18
Curtis Granderson 20
Robinson Cano 14
Ryan Braun 19
Adam Laroche 26
Albert Pujols 28
Carlos Beltran 15
Paul Goldschmidt 19
Andrew Mccutchen 25
Brendon Moss 25
Evan Longoria 22
Wilin Rosario 13
Matt Holliday 20
Yoenis Cespedes 22
Ian Desmond 24
Mike Napoli 17
Hunter Pence 20
Carlos Gomez 23
Freddie Freeman 18
Troy Tulowitzki 21
Dayan Viciedo 21
Buster Posey 22
Mark Teixeira 22
Matt Weiters 17
Colby Rasmus 18
Josh Reddick 12
Chase Headley 13
Bryce Harper 13
Garrett Jones 15
Aramis Ramirez 15
Jimmy Rollins 17
Alex Gordon 19
Trevor Plouffe 14
Shin-soo Choo 13
Matt Dominguez 16
Ian Kinsler 17
Yasiel Puig 16
Manley Ramiriz 13
Jason Castro 14
Matt Adams 15
Jonathan Lucroy 13
Brandon Belt 12
Miguel Montero 13
Manny Machado 12
Martin Prado 12
Seth Smith 12

No Anthony Rizzo?

Playing fantasy baseball, there is so much more that should be taken into account than merely HRs. You should factor in stolen bases, where he hits in the lineup for the opportunity for extra at bats, or run scoring opportunities, or RBI potential, the amount he walks, his infrequency of striking out etc. However, if i was going to do this solely based upon HRs, I would find the totals of people who are on an upward career arc, so people who might be under 28 years of age, who previous years might be eclipsed by the current year

Scoring system? Also is this a salary cap that those are their salaries, or is it an auction where those are your projected values?

Based on my projections simply on home runs (if more than home runs I'd delete Trumbo from my list),
Trumbo, Bruce, Goldschmidt and Harper all look like tremendous values. You would only spend $64 on those 4 players if it is salary cap, leaving you $77 for three players, you would basically be able to choose whoever you like with that available.
Based strictly on home runs, I would go those 4 with some combination of Cabrera, Alvarez, Encarnacion, and Tulowitzki for the other three. Players who could bounceback and still own the power skill like Chris Davis, Jay Bruce, Alvarez can provide value. Look at three year averages and evaluate if there's any noticeable skill changes, or if their most recent year was luck driven. (Fly ball rate and % of fly balls that went out vs career average, would more or less have gone out based on average distance if he's changing ballparks, etc)

Health and playing time changes/concerns should be looked at but those are usually built into the price. I would have included Chris Davis but I'm concerned about playing time, if he plays as poorly in first 1/3 of the year as he did last season he can hurt his team by being in the lineup. Adam Jones outperformed what underlying statistics would say, but at this point he's done that a couple seasons in a row now so he may deserve the benefit of the doubt.

Quote: Beardgoat

No Anthony Rizzo?

lots of guys missing if you're going that route. Stanton, Joey Bautista

Fangraphs, dig in and find what you want to, all sorts of stats and projection systems. Look at how many home run Robinson Cano has hit over his last 225-250 games or so and he's in Seattle, I see maybe 15.

Quote: Beardgoat

No Anthony Rizzo?

No. My projections have him hitting less than his value...i'll pass on him

Quote: Gabes22

Playing fantasy baseball, there is so much more that should be taken into account than merely HRs. You should factor in stolen bases, where he hits in the lineup for the opportunity for extra at bats, or run scoring opportunities, or RBI potential, the amount he walks, his infrequency of striking out etc. However, if i was going to do this solely based upon HRs, I would find the totals of people who are on an upward career arc, so people who might be under 28 years of age, who previous years might be eclipsed by the current year

This contest his SOLELY based on HR's

Quote: mcallister3200

Look at three year averages and evaluate if there's any noticeable skill changes, or if their most recent year was luck driven. (Fly ball rate and % of fly balls that went out vs career average, would more or less have gone out based on average distance if he's changing ballparks, etc)

I looked at something close to three year averages...I like the Fly ball rate ...will have a look, thanks

All this being said, is there a math way to just get my best possible 141 or less from the ranked players above?

Quote: Arnie

All this being said, is there a math way to just get my best possible 141 or less from the ranked players above?

Yes, if you define a way to determine which of two groups of seven players is "better".

Although I don't know if would be "math" as much as "brute force searching".

Here's a group with 7 of your top 9 for 140:
Miguel Cabrera 25
Chris Davis 26
Mark Trumbo 14
Pedro Alvarez 18
Adrian Beltre 19
Jay Bruce 18
Curtis Granderson 20

Ryan Braun might be a good value at 19. He had a down year in 2014 as he had a lot of issues with his thumb on his swing hand. After offseason surgery he should be back up into the 30+ range

Also not on the juice...

I like Braun to bounce back somewhat. But after 2-3 consecutive down years at what point do you call it a new baseline? Hitting is also just plain trending downward over the past two years. 30 sounds like a good over under if healthy but if forced to choose I go under. I also think he's more of a .280 hitter than getting back to .300.

5 Dimes has over/unders on HR totals for many of these players. They are based on common projections, but you can see where the money is coming in.

You can use an auction value calculator. You can mess around with various settings, but this is approx set to your league.

http://www.draftbuddy.com/baseball/lastplayerpicked/index.php?t=10&l=MLB&m=141&b=1&ds=15E&dis=250&spl=&hs=70&ps=30&HR=Y&C=0&1B=0&2B=0&3B=0&SS=0&OF=0&LF=0&CF=0&RF=0&CI=0&MI=1&IF=0&Util=7&mg=20&SP=0&RP=0&P=0&ms=5&mr=5

When you get projected values you like, try to find the combo that gets the highest projected total.

No Padres? Game is obviously rigged.
As much as I hate to say it, I'd be looking at a Rockies slugger given the altitude and how the ball travels.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Yes, if you define a way to determine which of two groups of seven players is "better".

Although I don't know if would be "math" as much as "brute force searching".

Here's a group with 7 of your top 9 for 140:
Miguel Cabrera 25
Chris Davis 26
Mark Trumbo 14
Pedro Alvarez 18
Adrian Beltre 19
Jay Bruce 18
Curtis Granderson 20

That's without 3rd ranked Encarnacion...interesting, thanks

I think in order to do a correct calculation we would need to know how many homeruns you project each player to have. I assume you think Trumbo is going to hit 35-40 homeruns because he is #3 on you list? Or does that mean you think he is the third best value.

Quote: Beardgoat

I think in order to do a correct calculation we would need to know how many homeruns you project each player to have. I assume you think Trumbo is going to hit 35-40 homeruns because he is #3 on you list? Or does that mean you think he is the third best value.

These projections are based on guys who will hit more hr's this year compared to last year only... guys like Nelson Cruz, Rizzo , Duda etc who were minus 1 or higher from last year were tossed

Quote: Beardgoat

I think in order to do a correct calculation we would need to know how many homeruns you project each player to have. I assume you think Trumbo is going to hit 35-40 homeruns because he is #3 on you list? Or does that mean you think he is the third best value.

Trumbo was 33 for this year

Quote: Arnie

That's without 3rd ranked Encarnacion...interesting, thanks

Yes, but if you put in Encarnacion and take out Granderson (the highest-cost player below him), that raises your total to 153. You would need a lot of 13-15 cost players after your top three.