Have to pick seven players on my team and can only spend 141

The following are my players listed in projection order based on projected homeruns...the number next to them is there value...again 141 or less to spend.

Question: How do I put together my best rated seven man team while spending 141 or less?

Miguel Cabrera 25

Chris Davis 26

Edwin Encarnacion 34

Mark Trumbo 14

Pedro Alvarez 18

Adrian Beltre 19

Adam Jones 29

Jay Bruce 18

Curtis Granderson 20

Robinson Cano 14

Ryan Braun 19

Adam Laroche 26

Albert Pujols 28

Carlos Beltran 15

Paul Goldschmidt 19

Andrew Mccutchen 25

Brendon Moss 25

Evan Longoria 22

Wilin Rosario 13

Matt Holliday 20

Yoenis Cespedes 22

Ian Desmond 24

Mike Napoli 17

Hunter Pence 20

Carlos Gomez 23

Freddie Freeman 18

Troy Tulowitzki 21

Dayan Viciedo 21

Buster Posey 22

Mark Teixeira 22

Matt Weiters 17

Colby Rasmus 18

Josh Reddick 12

Chase Headley 13

Bryce Harper 13

Garrett Jones 15

Aramis Ramirez 15

Jimmy Rollins 17

Alex Gordon 19

Trevor Plouffe 14

Shin-soo Choo 13

Matt Dominguez 16

Ian Kinsler 17

Yasiel Puig 16

Manley Ramiriz 13

Jason Castro 14

Matt Adams 15

Jonathan Lucroy 13

Brandon Belt 12

Miguel Montero 13

Manny Machado 12

Martin Prado 12

Seth Smith 12

Based on my projections simply on home runs (if more than home runs I'd delete Trumbo from my list),

Trumbo, Bruce, Goldschmidt and Harper all look like tremendous values. You would only spend $64 on those 4 players if it is salary cap, leaving you $77 for three players, you would basically be able to choose whoever you like with that available.

Based strictly on home runs, I would go those 4 with some combination of Cabrera, Alvarez, Encarnacion, and Tulowitzki for the other three. Players who could bounceback and still own the power skill like Chris Davis, Jay Bruce, Alvarez can provide value. Look at three year averages and evaluate if there's any noticeable skill changes, or if their most recent year was luck driven. (Fly ball rate and % of fly balls that went out vs career average, would more or less have gone out based on average distance if he's changing ballparks, etc)

Health and playing time changes/concerns should be looked at but those are usually built into the price. I would have included Chris Davis but I'm concerned about playing time, if he plays as poorly in first 1/3 of the year as he did last season he can hurt his team by being in the lineup. Adam Jones outperformed what underlying statistics would say, but at this point he's done that a couple seasons in a row now so he may deserve the benefit of the doubt.

lots of guys missing if you're going that route. Stanton, Joey BautistaQuote:BeardgoatNo Anthony Rizzo?

Quote:BeardgoatNo Anthony Rizzo?

No. My projections have him hitting less than his value...i'll pass on him

Quote:Gabes22Playing fantasy baseball, there is so much more that should be taken into account than merely HRs. You should factor in stolen bases, where he hits in the lineup for the opportunity for extra at bats, or run scoring opportunities, or RBI potential, the amount he walks, his infrequency of striking out etc. However, if i was going to do this solely based upon HRs, I would find the totals of people who are on an upward career arc, so people who might be under 28 years of age, who previous years might be eclipsed by the current year

This contest his SOLELY based on HR's

Quote:mcallister3200Look at three year averages and evaluate if there's any noticeable skill changes, or if their most recent year was luck driven. (Fly ball rate and % of fly balls that went out vs career average, would more or less have gone out based on average distance if he's changing ballparks, etc)

I looked at something close to three year averages...I like the Fly ball rate ...will have a look, thanks

Quote:ArnieAll this being said, is there a math way to just get my best possible 141 or less from the ranked players above?

Yes, if you define a way to determine which of two groups of seven players is "better".

Although I don't know if would be "math" as much as "brute force searching".

Here's a group with 7 of your top 9 for 140:

Miguel Cabrera 25

Chris Davis 26

Mark Trumbo 14

Pedro Alvarez 18

Adrian Beltre 19

Jay Bruce 18

Curtis Granderson 20

You can use an auction value calculator. You can mess around with various settings, but this is approx set to your league.

http://www.draftbuddy.com/baseball/lastplayerpicked/index.php?t=10&l=MLB&m=141&b=1&ds=15E&dis=250&spl=&hs=70&ps=30&HR=Y&C=0&1B=0&2B=0&3B=0&SS=0&OF=0&LF=0&CF=0&RF=0&CI=0&MI=1&IF=0&Util=7&mg=20&SP=0&RP=0&P=0&ms=5&mr=5

When you get projected values you like, try to find the combo that gets the highest projected total.

As much as I hate to say it, I'd be looking at a Rockies slugger given the altitude and how the ball travels.

Quote:ThatDonGuyYes, if you define a way to determine which of two groups of seven players is "better".

Although I don't know if would be "math" as much as "brute force searching".

Here's a group with 7 of your top 9 for 140:

Miguel Cabrera 25

Chris Davis 26

Mark Trumbo 14

Pedro Alvarez 18

Adrian Beltre 19

Jay Bruce 18

Curtis Granderson 20

That's without 3rd ranked Encarnacion...interesting, thanks

Quote:BeardgoatI think in order to do a correct calculation we would need to know how many homeruns you project each player to have. I assume you think Trumbo is going to hit 35-40 homeruns because he is #3 on you list? Or does that mean you think he is the third best value.

These projections are based on guys who will hit more hr's this year compared to last year only... guys like Nelson Cruz, Rizzo , Duda etc who were minus 1 or higher from last year were tossed

Quote:BeardgoatI think in order to do a correct calculation we would need to know how many homeruns you project each player to have. I assume you think Trumbo is going to hit 35-40 homeruns because he is #3 on you list? Or does that mean you think he is the third best value.

Trumbo was 33 for this year

Quote:ArnieThat's without 3rd ranked Encarnacion...interesting, thanks

Yes, but if you put in Encarnacion and take out Granderson (the highest-cost player below him), that raises your total to 153. You would need a lot of 13-15 cost players after your top three.