help calculating combinations (trying to figure the affect of card removal on side bets)

I'm trying to figure out the effect of card removal (using the card count) on various side bets. In particular, I'm trying to figure out how the existing deck composition effects the house odds in the match the dealer side bets I've seen at the local casino.
I'm having a problem calculating the total possible combinations. I'm using the below chart from the Wizard as a reference but I can't ever get my math to add up.

The player places a bet on either either the first or second player card and if it matches ANY of the cards drawn by the dealer (not just the up card) then it's a win. A suited match pays 12 to 1 and a non-suited match pays 3 to 1 (and I think there were some other payouts as well, but I don't remember - I'm more interested in the math).

so...
player gets 2 cards (bet is made on 1 of them)
dealer gets 2+ cards (average # of cards should be higher in low counts)

the COMBIN excel formula doesn't quite fit, and I can't seem to figure out the math on possible combinations. Any help would be great.

Thanks,

Match the Dealer - Spanish 21 - Eight Decks

Event Combinations Probability Pays Return
Two suited matches 21 0.000287 24 0.00689
One hard and one each match 168 0.002297 15 0.034448
Two non-suited matches 276 0.003773 6 0.022637
One suited match 2464 0.033683 12 0.404194
One non-suited match 8448 0.115484 3 0.346452
No matches 61776 0.844477 -1 -0.844477
Total 73153 1 0 -0.029855

Match the Dealer (MTD) is only your 2 card and the dealers up card. (There might be a seperate bet for their down card common in Washington State casinos/cadrooms.)
I have a spreadsheet in google docs: here
Save the file, and edit the deck composition all you want. You'll find that MTD isn't worth counting. Any other questions, just ask.

Thanks - looks like I missed some of the rules while watching :)

The sheet was very helpful - I'll spend some time digging into the math deeper