backrat
Joined: Jun 3, 2010
• Posts: 3
June 3rd, 2010 at 11:55:48 AM permalink
Hi,

I have always considered myself as being pretty good at working out probabilites but Baccarat is giving me a headache.

eg. wizard of odds page

states that a natural tie has 0.017871 chance of winning (8 decks)

but
states the following:
player gets: 8 with 2 cards - 0.094532; 9 with 2 cards 0.094903
the odds for the banker are the same.

(0.094532 * 0.094532) + (0.094903 * 0.094903) = 0.0179427

Is my maths wrong? Have I missed something? I know the difference is tiny but I don't see why there should be ANY!

Thanks
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
• Posts: 1246
June 3rd, 2010 at 11:58:55 AM permalink
effect of card removal? if one hand has 8 or 9, it is slightly less likely that the other hand also has the 8 or 9 needed for a tie. This explains why the true probability is less than your quick calculation.

You actually need to calculate the individual probability of getting various hands that add up to 8 (or 9), and then recalculate the probability for the 2nd hand.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
backrat
Joined: Jun 3, 2010