Three Royals in Ten Days - What is the probability/odds?
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August 5th, 2014 at 10:23:10 PM
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Hi Guys
I recently returned from a Las Vegas vacation and would like some help analyzing my video poker results. Over a ten day period, I averaged 5 hours of play per day, and estimate that I played around 300 hands/hour (I know that's pretty slow - I like to socialize). My game is double double bonus and I usually play 50 cent or 1 dollar (5 coin). Over a ten day period I hit three royals:
50 cent/5 coin, dealt 4 cards to royal, $2000
25 cent/ 10 coin progressive, dealt 4 cards to royal, $4300 (rounded down)
1 dollar/5 coin, dealt 2 cards to royal, $4000
My question: what is the probability of hitting this many royals during this period, out of this many hands?
Thank you in advance!
Pics available upon request. Two of the royals (#2 and #3) were on the same machine (!)
I recently returned from a Las Vegas vacation and would like some help analyzing my video poker results. Over a ten day period, I averaged 5 hours of play per day, and estimate that I played around 300 hands/hour (I know that's pretty slow - I like to socialize). My game is double double bonus and I usually play 50 cent or 1 dollar (5 coin). Over a ten day period I hit three royals:
50 cent/5 coin, dealt 4 cards to royal, $2000
25 cent/ 10 coin progressive, dealt 4 cards to royal, $4300 (rounded down)
1 dollar/5 coin, dealt 2 cards to royal, $4000
My question: what is the probability of hitting this many royals during this period, out of this many hands?
Thank you in advance!
Pics available upon request. Two of the royals (#2 and #3) were on the same machine (!)
August 5th, 2014 at 11:29:20 PM
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The probability of exactly 3 Royal Flushes in about 15,000 hands is 0.604% (1 in 165).
The probability of 3 or more Royal Flushes in about 15,000 hands is 0.665% (1 in 150).
The probability of 3 or more Royal Flushes in about 15,000 hands is 0.665% (1 in 150).
August 6th, 2014 at 12:53:48 AM
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Nice hits.
A couple of years ago my son hit five $1 royals (single line machines) in 24 hours but came home with a net loss. Each royal cost him about $4000.
I'm guessing you came back with a net profit?
A couple of years ago my son hit five $1 royals (single line machines) in 24 hours but came home with a net loss. Each royal cost him about $4000.
I'm guessing you came back with a net profit?
August 6th, 2014 at 5:25:42 AM
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If this was a standard VP machine. I just can't believe this.Quote: AlanMendelsonNice hits.
A couple of years ago my son hit five $1 royals (single line machines) in 24 hours but came home with a net loss. Each royal cost him about $4000.
I'm guessing you came back with a net profit?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 6th, 2014 at 6:06:17 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfIf this was a standard VP machine. I just can't believe this.
At the very least, more detail is needed.
And nice hits mrjack! I see where my luck has gone. :p
August 6th, 2014 at 6:58:16 AM
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I respect Alan but .... this is way out of the norm. Perhaps he played some obscure game like draw till you win or 2nd chance royals.Quote: tringlomaneAt the very least, more detail is needed.
And nice hits mrjack! I see where my luck has gone. :p
Just for Sh*ts and Giggles can you take a run at estimating this on an 8/5 bonus poker machine assuming near perfect play @ and average of 600 hands per hr for 24 hrs straight assume a loss of $1. I'm exaggerating but Its like he ran 20x better on then expected on royals then expected and lost 20 times more on the drop.
5 royals I can kind of believe. Surly there are W2G's. But, add that to the odds of losing on top of that. It almost seems next to impossible. Its like you would have to lose like 25% to the drop over 16k hands. This makes 30 hands of bj losses in a row look easy.
I think I lost 2500 on $1 9/6 on a double royal promotion in about 1 hr before(I didn't sit and time it)
Who was it that said there were 18 yo's in a row?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 6th, 2014 at 8:30:23 AM
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What don't you believe? Five royals in 24 hours?
First one was at Gold Strike at Jean. Next four came on different machines at Caesars. All single line, $1 denom. Almost non stop play.
Since there are W2Gs as proof care to challenge me with a small wager?
First one was at Gold Strike at Jean. Next four came on different machines at Caesars. All single line, $1 denom. Almost non stop play.
Since there are W2Gs as proof care to challenge me with a small wager?
August 6th, 2014 at 8:38:17 AM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
August 6th, 2014 at 8:43:41 AM
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Axel wasnt challenging 5 royals in 24 hours. He was challenging hitting 5 royals in 24 hours but coming up a loser.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
August 6th, 2014 at 8:46:22 AM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
August 6th, 2014 at 8:50:26 AM
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Yes. My son will admit to losing even with five royals. Admittedly he used some $1 royal money to play higher denom games.
August 6th, 2014 at 9:08:45 AM
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WOW! and travel time in between as well. No need to point out they were on different machines, that has nothing to do with it. Different machines would just make it more unbelievable and unlikely.Quote: AlanMendelsonWhat don't you believe? Five royals in 24 hours?
First one was at Gold Strike at Jean. Next four came on different machines at Caesars. All single line, $1 denom. Almost non stop play.
Since there are W2Gs as proof care to challenge me with a small wager?
5 royals on single line 24 hr straight, assume he got in like 16k hands normally over 4Ok hands to get one. Then to lose money on top of that. How much did he lose? Was he playing blind folded?
Pay tables?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 6th, 2014 at 9:14:08 AM
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well if he played 900 hands an hour it would be 21500 hands - it is within the realm of possibilty just not highly likey
but def more possible then losing 30 hands of blackjack in a row - hey hey
but def more possible then losing 30 hands of blackjack in a row - hey hey
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
August 6th, 2014 at 9:24:47 AM
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Who lost thirty hands in a row at blackjack?
I don't understand the question about travel time. Jean is abput 20 minutes outside of Vegas. Four royals at Caesars. One at Jean.
I don't understand the question about travel time. Jean is abput 20 minutes outside of Vegas. Four royals at Caesars. One at Jean.
August 6th, 2014 at 9:25:27 AM
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No oneQuote: AlanMendelsonWho lost thirty hands in a row at blackjack?
August 6th, 2014 at 10:07:02 AM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonYes. My son will admit to losing even with five royals. Admittedly he used some $1 royal money to play higher denom games.
But lost it all back in the same day? Just playing video poker? How high of a denomination he go up to? I don't even want to imagine how I'd feel if I did that.
August 6th, 2014 at 10:28:01 AM
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He went to $10 denom.
Im not proud of this but I have hit $4000 roysls and lost it all in an hour moving up yo $5 games.
Im not proud of this but I have hit $4000 roysls and lost it all in an hour moving up yo $5 games.
August 6th, 2014 at 10:56:38 AM
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Quote: mickeycrimmAxel wasnt challenging 5 royals in 24 hours. He was challenging hitting 5 royals in 24 hours but coming up a loser.
EDIT: As I see from the next page, he lost it after moving up to $10 denom. Ok, that is not at all unlikely. Leaving it out of the original post was extremely misleading.
August 6th, 2014 at 11:19:18 AM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceEDIT: As I see from the next page, he lost it after moving up to $10 denom. Ok, that is not at all unlikely. Leaving it out of the original post was extremely misleading.
Yeah, that's why people questioned you pretty quickly, Alan. Write that in the beginning, you mostly would be getting, "Wow! That sucks!" And losing a $1 Royal in a $5 unit in roughly an hour is crappy too. I not sure if I've ever really parlayed a big win trying to win huge. The normal swings bug me enough.
August 6th, 2014 at 11:31:08 AM
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I never start at high denom. Always start low and use my wins to play at higher denoms. My son does the same. On some VP games such as Royal Aces I start at 25 cents.
Regarding the original post it was true: he lost it all. I forgot that on this forum everyone demands the tiniest of details or else you're a liar.
Regarding the original post it was true: he lost it all. I forgot that on this forum everyone demands the tiniest of details or else you're a liar.
August 6th, 2014 at 11:43:08 AM
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I figured it'd be a loss on a parlay. I do this when I play if I have a good session. Starting with quarters up to dollars, if the game has the same pay table so I am only changing the amount played per hand. One time I got up to $2 and got 4 deuces dealt. That was fun.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
August 6th, 2014 at 12:23:52 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonRegarding the original post it was true
True yet misleading.
Quote:the tiniest of details
Yeah, the amount that you are betting is a "tiny detail" when talking about how much you lost. Nice try.
August 8th, 2014 at 6:45:39 AM
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I didn't see where you said he played higher denominations. It sounded as if you were implying he played all the same denominations you had a chance to clear this up in you 2nd post. where you added this "First one was at Gold Strike at Jean. Next four came on different machines at Caesars. All single line, $1 denom. Almost non stop play." Add this to your first post "A couple of years ago my son hit five $1 royals (single line machines) in 24 hours but came home with a net loss. Each royal cost him about $4000."
You said each royal cost him $4000 SO this make no sense. Umm...... this does not jive with what your saying about a higher denomination. I would think that clearly implies that he would hit a $1 royal but lose most of it back in between the $1 denomination royals. You can spin it all you want, Its obvious what you were claiming at first.
You said each royal cost him $4000 SO this make no sense. Umm...... this does not jive with what your saying about a higher denomination. I would think that clearly implies that he would hit a $1 royal but lose most of it back in between the $1 denomination royals. You can spin it all you want, Its obvious what you were claiming at first.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 8th, 2014 at 7:28:15 AM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
August 18th, 2014 at 8:13:50 AM
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I see your name a lot, so being a newbee on the forum I thought I would comment here an a tangent topic. I just got back from AC where after 3 hours on the second day I hit a Royal Flush ($1199.00) on the "My Poker" Dbl, Dbl, Bonus Poker...the machine locked up, the tech came, fixed it and the Voucher was printed . Then 5 hands later, I was dealt a Royal Flush...the machine locked up, the tech came, fix it, the Voucher was printed and then the Voice on his walkie/talkie told him to shut down the Machine and take it off line for "a full re-boot". Urban Legend goes that machines are taken off-line, is it true or was this just a coincidence?
Also, not trying to hi-jack this thread (I read the rules) but I noticed the locals feverously working (and standing in line to play) a 5 Play Joker Wild Progressive game, required a 10 coin (5cents) bet, the 5 of a kind on the Draw paid over $10K with mini-payouts for other 4 of a kind then finishing out as 8(FH)/5(FL)/4(ST)/2(3ofakind)/1(2pr). I have spend the last hour or so trying to find paytables or strategy for this type of game...your discussion on the Royal Flush came as close as I could find to my first question above.
Please forgive any unintended errors here by a newbee.
DocMike
Also, not trying to hi-jack this thread (I read the rules) but I noticed the locals feverously working (and standing in line to play) a 5 Play Joker Wild Progressive game, required a 10 coin (5cents) bet, the 5 of a kind on the Draw paid over $10K with mini-payouts for other 4 of a kind then finishing out as 8(FH)/5(FL)/4(ST)/2(3ofakind)/1(2pr). I have spend the last hour or so trying to find paytables or strategy for this type of game...your discussion on the Royal Flush came as close as I could find to my first question above.
Please forgive any unintended errors here by a newbee.
DocMike
August 18th, 2014 at 8:48:31 AM
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fixed it? Fixed what? If there was a problem whit the machine the 2nd time, that's the reason why they reset it. Perhaps it was not supposed to lock up, possibly it was supposed to Just pay the credits.Quote: DocMikeI see your name a lot, so being a newbee on the forum I thought I would comment here an a tangent topic. I just got back from AC where after 3 hours on the second day I hit a Royal Flush ($1199.00) on the "My Poker" Dbl, Dbl, Bonus Poker...the machine locked up, the tech came, fixed it and the Voucher was printed . Then 5 hands later, I was dealt a Royal Flush...the machine locked up, the tech came, fix it, the Voucher was printed and then the Voice on his walkie/talkie told him to shut down the Machine and take it off line for "a full re-boot". Urban Legend goes that machines are taken off-line, is it true or was this just a coincidence?
Also, not trying to hi-jack this thread (I read the rules) but I noticed the locals feverously working (and standing in line to play) a 5 Play Joker Wild Progressive game, required a 10 coin (5cents) bet, the 5 of a kind on the Draw paid over $10K with mini-payouts for other 4 of a kind then finishing out as 8(FH)/5(FL)/4(ST)/2(3ofakind)/1(2pr). I have spend the last hour or so trying to find paytables or strategy for this type of game...your discussion on the Royal Flush came as close as I could find to my first question above.
Please forgive any unintended errors here by a newbee.
DocMike
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 18th, 2014 at 9:01:18 AM
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It probably was a superstitious manager who wanted to "let the machine cool off".
August 18th, 2014 at 9:58:21 AM
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Quote: 1arrowheaddrIt probably was a superstitious manager who wanted to "let the machine cool off".
Possibly, managers seem to think this way a lot. But the machine doesn't have to lock up on a $1199 payout either.
August 18th, 2014 at 10:55:25 AM
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The old progressive Palms FPDW locked up on all royals. They would bring your $1002.25 in a hand pay.
A dealer recently was telling me about how his pit supervisor 25 years ago would send blackjack dealers on an hour long break when the players at that table were winning too much and bring in a "hot" dealer.
A dealer recently was telling me about how his pit supervisor 25 years ago would send blackjack dealers on an hour long break when the players at that table were winning too much and bring in a "hot" dealer.
August 18th, 2014 at 10:59:13 AM
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Makes no sense.Quote: 1arrowheaddr"hot" dealer.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 18th, 2014 at 11:00:25 AM
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Quote: 1arrowheaddrThe old progressive Palms FPDW locked up on all royals. They would bring your $1002.25 in a hand pay.
Lots of progressives still lock up even if the payout is < $1200. It's unusual for a non-progressive to lock up for < $1200 though. Particularly a machine as new as that "My Poker" aberration.
August 18th, 2014 at 11:50:21 AM
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Quote: DocMike...Also, not trying to hi-jack this thread (I read the rules) but I noticed the locals feverously working (and standing in line to play) a 5 Play Joker Wild Progressive game, required a 10 coin (5cents) bet, the 5 of a kind on the Draw paid over $10K with mini-payouts for other 4 of a kind then finishing out as 8(FH)/5(FL)/4(ST)/2(3ofakind)/1(2pr)...
Is that a group of machines in Harrah's? I often see every seat taken even when the progressive is above about only $3K.
I was wondering about the value of those machines, too. I think the basic game has a return of 97.19%. Check Wizard's page on Joker Poker to see if I'm using the right pay table.
To win the progressive, the player has to get five-of-a-kind on all five hands, which essentially means that the player must be dealt five-of-a-kind. For a dealt five-of-a-kind, the player would get paid $10,000 but would miss out on the five separate payouts of about $400 per line. So, the bonus would be about $10K - $2K = $8K, which is 160,000 nickels. Divide 160,000 by the 50 nickels played to get 3,200:1. Then multiply 3,200 by 13/combin(53,5) to get 1.45%. So, I get a return 97.19% + 1.45% = 98.64% even with a $10K progressive. So, I don't know why the players are so eager to get a seat.
August 18th, 2014 at 2:45:02 PM
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Quote: ChesterDogSo, I don't know why the players are so eager to get a seat.
The average ploppy probably assumes it's worth a lot more.
August 18th, 2014 at 2:59:54 PM
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Quote: tringlomaneLots of progressives still lock up even if the payout is < $1200. It's unusual for a non-progressive to lock up for < $1200 though. Particularly a machine as new as that "My Poker" aberration.
I know quite a few places that still lock up machines on $800 or higher wins. I think it is a silly idea, but I also know lots of slot directors that are superstitious and not well informed on how slots actually work.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
August 18th, 2014 at 3:04:38 PM
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It creates a bit of excitement, I think casinos should have more.Quote: DRichI know quite a few places that still lock up machines on $800 or higher wins. I think it is a silly idea, but I also know lots of slot directors that are superstitious and not well informed on how slots actually work.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 18th, 2014 at 3:31:49 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfIt creates a bit of excitement, I think casinos should have more.
The floor people would like that. More tips.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
August 18th, 2014 at 9:18:06 PM
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Oh how I wish they would raise the lockup number! The time spent waiting might be of value to casinos because most would just spend the time gambling right on through. The wait times can take an hour sometimes. Once I even had to run home and even grab my s.s. card. That was ridiculous.
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
August 18th, 2014 at 9:55:37 PM
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Hours? VERY rare, big promotions or grand openings, possibly. Most casinos in the US do not require you to show an actual ss card.Quote: MoosetonOh how I wish they would raise the lockup number! The time spent waiting might be of value to casinos because most would just spend the time gambling right on through. The wait times can take an hour sometimes. Once I even had to run home and even grab my s.s. card. That was ridiculous.
Hand pays are not horrible. They should have both available in all casinos. Options and variety are best.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 22nd, 2018 at 11:24:38 PM
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After some longtime ongoing confrontation on another forum. Alan swearing up and down his son hit 5 SINGLE LINE Royals in 24 hours.
He said over and over that it was true(just as true as him seeing 18 yos in a row), I knew danm well it was not true. It had even escalated to talks about 5k to show proof(a one-sided "bet" I was not interested in, as it had no upside for me, I was not sure I could even trust any evidence ).
I was finally able to ask his son if it were true.
NO BIG SURPRISE, IT WAS NOT EVEN CLOSE.
He hit ONE legit single line royal.
There were many other jackpots(NOT SINGLE LINE ROYALS LIKE HE CLAIMED) including a 3-way action royal and a triple play Royal.
GIVEN THIS INFORMATION, ITS SAFE TO SAY HE ONLY WITNESSED 3.6 YO's IN A ROW.
He said over and over that it was true(just as true as him seeing 18 yos in a row), I knew danm well it was not true. It had even escalated to talks about 5k to show proof(a one-sided "bet" I was not interested in, as it had no upside for me, I was not sure I could even trust any evidence ).
I was finally able to ask his son if it were true.
NO BIG SURPRISE, IT WAS NOT EVEN CLOSE.
He hit ONE legit single line royal.
There were many other jackpots(NOT SINGLE LINE ROYALS LIKE HE CLAIMED) including a 3-way action royal and a triple play Royal.
GIVEN THIS INFORMATION, ITS SAFE TO SAY HE ONLY WITNESSED 3.6 YO's IN A ROW.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
