tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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May 26th, 2010 at 2:46:57 PM permalink
Quote: DJTB

In that article, the Wiz states that the odds of getting all six numbers is 0.000164





DJTB: I am an old, short, fat, dumpy dude with a somewhat slow mind, so answer me this: The .0001 number is at the 10,000th level is it not? I see where someone stated that conversion is at the 6100 to 1 level yet the 0.000164 seems to be at the 10,000+ to 1 level. Please straighten me out on this one. Thanks for the link. It was eye opening especially on point conversions in general.

tuttigym
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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May 26th, 2010 at 3:02:24 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

All from ask wiz craps
Ave. number of seven outs per 6 point fire bet: 6156
Ave. number of rolls per seven out: 8.52551
Ave. rolls per hour:
Players - rolls
1 - 249
3 - 216
5 - 144
7 - 135
9 - 123
11 - 102



Thus at a 5 player table : 16.7 outs / hour. = 368 hours between fire bets = 1 every two weeks. If the table was constantly busy.

In a big enough casino with 4-6 active craps tables, I could see once a week happening. In a smaller casino with 1-2 tables not always active, once every 3 months seems reasonable too.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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May 26th, 2010 at 3:07:32 PM permalink
Yeah, those tiny decimals can be confusing at times.

The easy way to turn it around is to enter it into a calculator: 1 / .000164 = 6,097.561

But to just read the post and 'accept it as true', follow along:

.0001 IS at the 10,000 level as you suspect. I.E. It's 1 in 10,000. That the same as 10,000 to 1.

.0002 is 2 in 10,000 which equals 1 in 5,000. Still with me?

.000164 is somewhere in between. Now is it easier to accept that it's about 1 in 6,100 ?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Jumboshrimps
Jumboshrimps
Joined: Jan 11, 2010
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May 27th, 2010 at 12:38:47 PM permalink
I hit a six-point fire bet, as the shooter, the very first time I played craps. I had no idea what I was doing or why I was the most popular guy in the casino for a short time, but my buddy still thinks I'm some sort of dice god. Paid only 500-1 at that casino, in Missouri.
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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May 27th, 2010 at 3:23:17 PM permalink
Quote: DJTB


The easy way to turn it around is to enter it into a calculator: 1 / .000164 = 6,097.561

But to just read the post and 'accept it as true', follow along:

.0001 IS at the 10,000 level as you suspect. I.E. It's 1 in 10,000. That the same as 10,000 to 1.

.0002 is 2 in 10,000 which equals 1 in 5,000. Still with me?

.000164 is somewhere in between. Now is it easier to accept that it's about 1 in 6,100 ?



Absolutely got it now. Thanks very much. The other dude had it right, but I doubted his math, so I need to get back to him and apologize, and make sure that he knows that I was wrong!!

The Fire Bet chart you linked me to is very descriptive. Is there another chart that is similar showing the odds of just consecutive point conversions by one shooter regardless of which points are in play? If so, can you link me there too? Thanks

tuttigym
miplet
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
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May 28th, 2010 at 7:58:08 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym


The Fire Bet chart you linked me to is very descriptive. Is there another chart that is similar showing the odds of just consecutive point conversions by one shooter regardless of which points are in play? If so, can you link me there too? Thanks

tuttigym


There is an incomplete chart on that same page near the bottem Sharp Shooter
The formula for exact number of points use (67/165)^p*(98/165) for alteast number of points use (67/165)^p where p is the number of points.
溺an Babes #AxelFabulous
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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June 5th, 2010 at 12:16:23 PM permalink
Do the odds of success of successfully completing the six point fire bet change depending on which points are converted first? Suppose a shooter converts his first two points which are the 4 and then the 10, wouldn't the odds dramatically decrease over the shooter that converts his first two points which are the 6 & the 8?

tuttigym
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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June 5th, 2010 at 2:36:30 PM permalink
Sure, the odds of getting all six decrease as you start to get closer.

And a player that gets the 4/10 first has more chance of completing all six than the guy who gets the 6/8 first.

But none of that affects the overall odds discussed on the Wiz' Craps page, FireBet section. Those odds are calculated for a new shooter, which is the only time you cal place the FireBet bet.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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June 7th, 2010 at 9:42:58 AM permalink
Quote: DJTB

But none of that affects the overall odds discussed on the Wiz' Craps page, FireBet section. Those odds are calculated for a new shooter, which is the only time you cal place the FireBet bet.



I understood that fact regarding the intial bet. I just wondered if those particular odds were available. It is no biggie and thanks for the reply.

tuttigym
miplet
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
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June 7th, 2010 at 9:48:07 AM permalink
I can calculate them for you when my server is back up. What exacly do you want? The odds that you will make the remaining 5 points given you've already made a 4?
溺an Babes #AxelFabulous

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