tuttigym
tuttigym
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 1835
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
May 25th, 2010 at 3:25:09 PM permalink
Wizard: Can you or Goat or the Administrator provide the odds of successfully converting a SIX point "Fire Bet"?

I just visited the casinos in Tunica and one dealer stated (anecdotally) that the six point conversion happens about once a week. There was one individual elsewhere that stated some really long odds which I will not repeat here.

Thanks for the consideration.

tuttigym
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
May 25th, 2010 at 3:37:49 PM permalink
What a dealer will say to a player may not be the truth. I would think this Once A Week firebet takes place in the dealer break room or at the local watering hole after a shift ends. I mean its probability is supposedly .016 percent or something like that. I don't see how that could be happening quite so frequently.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
  • Threads: 207
  • Posts: 10992
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
May 25th, 2010 at 3:52:52 PM permalink
Tutti! How ya doing? Long time...


The Wizard discusses the FireBet here: https://wizardofodds.com/craps/appendix4.html#firebet

In that article, the Wiz states that the odds of getting all six numbers is 0.000164
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
cclub79
cclub79
  • Threads: 35
  • Posts: 1147
Joined: Dec 16, 2009
May 25th, 2010 at 4:19:00 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Tutti! How ya doing? Long time...


The Wizard discusses the FireBet here: https://wizardofodds.com/craps/appendix4.html#firebet

In that article, the Wiz states that the odds of getting all six numbers is 0.000164



Well at a busy casino that operates 24/7, it would be interesting to know how many times the dice are passed in a week. It might indeed be close to the .000164 (1 in about every 6100 shooting opportunities). Another way to perceive the number of "shooting opportunities" is just to count the 7 outs. If a casino has about 900 7 outs a day between all of their tables, they would average a 6 Point fire bet per week.
likeplayingcrapsandbj
likeplayingcrapsandbj
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 135
Joined: May 17, 2010
May 25th, 2010 at 4:36:23 PM permalink
I play craps every weeek and have never seen a 6 point fire. I have seen 5 or 6 repeating points very rarely. In an 8 hour day I have seen maybe 3 to 4 points made per hour per shooter but usually 2 points is the norm outside of the regular 7 hitting. That is why I play the Don't.
Last Man at the Table
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
May 25th, 2010 at 5:46:32 PM permalink
I don't have anywhere that amount of experience or alertness but I would agree that it does not happen that often. I don't think there are that many lengthy rolls and ofcourse the 2,3 and 12 would not count so you would be looking for a very lengthy roll that happened to hit all the point numbers.
appistappis
appistappis
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 105
Joined: Mar 27, 2010
May 25th, 2010 at 6:25:08 PM permalink
I deal craps almost everyday......to say a six point fire bet is made once a week is laughable.....once every three months is more in line.
cclub79
cclub79
  • Threads: 35
  • Posts: 1147
Joined: Dec 16, 2009
May 25th, 2010 at 6:31:57 PM permalink
Quote: appistappis

I deal craps almost everyday......to say a six point fire bet is made once a week is laughable.....once every three months is more in line.



I mean, math is math, and the Wizard says it should happen once every 6100 times there is a 7 out. So we just have to figure out the average number of rolls per 7 out, the average number of rolls per hour, and that will tell us how often it hits per table. Then divide by the number of average active tables at a location. Viola!
miplet
miplet
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 2109
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
May 25th, 2010 at 7:02:26 PM permalink
Quote: cclub79

I mean, math is math, and the Wizard says it should happen once every 6100 times there is a 7 out. So we just have to figure out the average number of rolls per 7 out, the average number of rolls per hour, and that will tell us how often it hits per table. Then divide by the number of average active tables at a location. Viola!


All from ask wiz craps
Ave. number of seven outs per 6 point fire bet: 6156
Ave. number of rolls per seven out: 8.52551
Ave. rolls per hour:
Players - rolls
1 - 249
3 - 216
5 - 144
7 - 135
9 - 123
11 - 102
溺an Babes #AxelFabulous
tuttigym
tuttigym
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 1835
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
May 26th, 2010 at 2:30:17 PM permalink
Quote: DJTB

Tutti! How ya doing? Long time...



DJ: Thanks for the warm welcome. That was very nice and unexpected.

I recognize that dealers are casino employees and salesmen of sorts, so I am seriously doubting his assertions. Besides at 0.000164 odds, I will not indulge.

To All Others: Thanks for your quick and intellectual responses.
tuttigym
tuttigym
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 1835
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
May 26th, 2010 at 2:46:57 PM permalink
Quote: DJTB

In that article, the Wiz states that the odds of getting all six numbers is 0.000164





DJTB: I am an old, short, fat, dumpy dude with a somewhat slow mind, so answer me this: The .0001 number is at the 10,000th level is it not? I see where someone stated that conversion is at the 6100 to 1 level yet the 0.000164 seems to be at the 10,000+ to 1 level. Please straighten me out on this one. Thanks for the link. It was eye opening especially on point conversions in general.

tuttigym
thecesspit
thecesspit
  • Threads: 53
  • Posts: 5936
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
May 26th, 2010 at 3:02:24 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

All from ask wiz craps
Ave. number of seven outs per 6 point fire bet: 6156
Ave. number of rolls per seven out: 8.52551
Ave. rolls per hour:
Players - rolls
1 - 249
3 - 216
5 - 144
7 - 135
9 - 123
11 - 102



Thus at a 5 player table : 16.7 outs / hour. = 368 hours between fire bets = 1 every two weeks. If the table was constantly busy.

In a big enough casino with 4-6 active craps tables, I could see once a week happening. In a smaller casino with 1-2 tables not always active, once every 3 months seems reasonable too.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
  • Threads: 207
  • Posts: 10992
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
May 26th, 2010 at 3:07:32 PM permalink
Yeah, those tiny decimals can be confusing at times.

The easy way to turn it around is to enter it into a calculator: 1 / .000164 = 6,097.561

But to just read the post and 'accept it as true', follow along:

.0001 IS at the 10,000 level as you suspect. I.E. It's 1 in 10,000. That the same as 10,000 to 1.

.0002 is 2 in 10,000 which equals 1 in 5,000. Still with me?

.000164 is somewhere in between. Now is it easier to accept that it's about 1 in 6,100 ?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Jumboshrimps
Jumboshrimps
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 75
Joined: Jan 11, 2010
May 27th, 2010 at 12:38:47 PM permalink
I hit a six-point fire bet, as the shooter, the very first time I played craps. I had no idea what I was doing or why I was the most popular guy in the casino for a short time, but my buddy still thinks I'm some sort of dice god. Paid only 500-1 at that casino, in Missouri.
tuttigym
tuttigym
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 1835
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
May 27th, 2010 at 3:23:17 PM permalink
Quote: DJTB


The easy way to turn it around is to enter it into a calculator: 1 / .000164 = 6,097.561

But to just read the post and 'accept it as true', follow along:

.0001 IS at the 10,000 level as you suspect. I.E. It's 1 in 10,000. That the same as 10,000 to 1.

.0002 is 2 in 10,000 which equals 1 in 5,000. Still with me?

.000164 is somewhere in between. Now is it easier to accept that it's about 1 in 6,100 ?



Absolutely got it now. Thanks very much. The other dude had it right, but I doubted his math, so I need to get back to him and apologize, and make sure that he knows that I was wrong!!

The Fire Bet chart you linked me to is very descriptive. Is there another chart that is similar showing the odds of just consecutive point conversions by one shooter regardless of which points are in play? If so, can you link me there too? Thanks

tuttigym
miplet
miplet
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 2109
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
May 28th, 2010 at 7:58:08 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym


The Fire Bet chart you linked me to is very descriptive. Is there another chart that is similar showing the odds of just consecutive point conversions by one shooter regardless of which points are in play? If so, can you link me there too? Thanks

tuttigym


There is an incomplete chart on that same page near the bottem Sharp Shooter
The formula for exact number of points use (67/165)^p*(98/165) for alteast number of points use (67/165)^p where p is the number of points.
溺an Babes #AxelFabulous
tuttigym
tuttigym
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 1835
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
June 5th, 2010 at 12:16:23 PM permalink
Do the odds of success of successfully completing the six point fire bet change depending on which points are converted first? Suppose a shooter converts his first two points which are the 4 and then the 10, wouldn't the odds dramatically decrease over the shooter that converts his first two points which are the 6 & the 8?

tuttigym
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
  • Threads: 207
  • Posts: 10992
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
June 5th, 2010 at 2:36:30 PM permalink
Sure, the odds of getting all six decrease as you start to get closer.

And a player that gets the 4/10 first has more chance of completing all six than the guy who gets the 6/8 first.

But none of that affects the overall odds discussed on the Wiz' Craps page, FireBet section. Those odds are calculated for a new shooter, which is the only time you cal place the FireBet bet.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
tuttigym
tuttigym
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 1835
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
June 7th, 2010 at 9:42:58 AM permalink
Quote: DJTB

But none of that affects the overall odds discussed on the Wiz' Craps page, FireBet section. Those odds are calculated for a new shooter, which is the only time you cal place the FireBet bet.



I understood that fact regarding the intial bet. I just wondered if those particular odds were available. It is no biggie and thanks for the reply.

tuttigym
miplet
miplet
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 2109
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
June 7th, 2010 at 9:48:07 AM permalink
I can calculate them for you when my server is back up. What exacly do you want? The odds that you will make the remaining 5 points given you've already made a 4?
溺an Babes #AxelFabulous
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
  • Threads: 207
  • Posts: 10992
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
June 7th, 2010 at 11:33:15 AM permalink
If I read his scenario correctly, he was looking for the odds of hitting the remaining four after hitting 4 and 10, as well as the odds of the remaining four after hitting 6 and 8.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 2001
Joined: Mar 28, 2010
June 7th, 2010 at 12:00:24 PM permalink
i witnessed a firebet going for the 6th point at redrock casino last night.

three players had $5 on the firebet.

the 5 points already made were 4,5,6,8,9.

so all that was needed was a 10.

they hit the 10 to become the point but ended up sevening out.

so starting from the comeout roll on this hand they were 23:1 to get paid 1000:1 on their firebet.

3/24 to establish 10 as a point x 3/9 of making the 10 as the point.

1/8 x 1/3 = 1/24 or 23:1
Doc
Doc
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 7287
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
June 7th, 2010 at 12:09:45 PM permalink
Just to be nit picky, I suppose.... I think their chances were better than 1 in 24 at that point. In addition to the opportunity you describe, they also had the (perhaps slim) possibility of setting and making one or more other points for a second (third, fourth, etc.) time and finally setting and making the 10. Your 3/24 fraction rules out that possibility.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
  • Threads: 207
  • Posts: 10992
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
June 7th, 2010 at 1:26:00 PM permalink
It also rules out the far more likely possibility of establishing one of the other points, and seven out on that point.

So arent the odds LOWER than 1 in 24?


Hmmm... Actually, I think it is correct to rule out both possibilities. There's a 1 in 24 chance of "X", and 23 in 24 of something else.

The chance of hitting the 10 then 7 out, or hitting something else or 7 out or hitting something else and making that point are ALL covered in the 23 in 24 'other possibilities'.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Doc
Doc
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 7287
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
June 7th, 2010 at 1:52:25 PM permalink
No, I think rudeboyoi was correct that there is a 1 in 24 chance of setting and making the 10 (sixth fire bet point) as the very next point that is set. I think I was correct that there are additional opportunities of setting and making the 10 after having made additional points. Combined, this gives something greater than 1 in 24, but it is far from easy to calculate.

I agree that things mentioned in your last paragraph are covered in the 23 of 24 "other possibilities." However, some of those other possibilities include making the sixth fire bet point. That is why the chance of the big win is greater than 1 in 24, given that all of the points except the 10 have already been made.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1493
  • Posts: 26476
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
June 7th, 2010 at 2:04:41 PM permalink
On the come out roll there are three possible outcomes at this point.

1. Sevening out.
2. Repeating a point already made (4 to 9).
3. Rolling a 10 on the come out roll, and then making it.

We need to quantify the second and third probabilities only. The shooter will eventually make a point, and then eventually make it or seven out. The probability that the point established and then made is 4 to 9 is:

(3/24)*(3/9) + (4/24)*(4/10) + (5/24)*(5/11) + (5/24)*(5/11) + (4/24)*(4/10) = 0.364394.

The probability of establishing a 10 point and then making it is (3/24)*(1/3) = 0.041667.

Let p be the probability of making a 10 point before sevening out. If the player makes any other point he is right back to where he started from. So...

p = 0.364394 × p + 0.041667
p × (1-0.364394) = 0.041667
p = 0.041667/(1-0.364394)
p = 0.065554
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Doc
Doc
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 7287
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
June 7th, 2010 at 2:09:07 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

... but it is far from easy to calculate.


Well, it was far from easy for ME to calculate. Then the Wizard went and made it look almost trivial. (I hate it when that happens.)
tuttigym
tuttigym
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 1835
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
June 7th, 2010 at 3:38:42 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

p = 0.065554



So the Wizard states that the last point, the 10 and its conversion is 15.25 to 1. (1 divided by .065554)

Interesting -- does anyone check his work??

Do you suppose that a Ph D candidate could do the research? How long would it take to validate that conclusion? and
Would a Ph D be awarded for such research?

Just wondering.

tuttigym
Headlock
Headlock
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 316
Joined: Feb 9, 2010
June 7th, 2010 at 3:43:05 PM permalink
Could someone show the calculations again to determine how much to lay against the 5th and 6th points? I was playing last weekend and the shooter established point number 5, which happened to be the 5. I had $1 on the fire bet, so I laid $120, with $4 vig to win $80.
miplet
miplet
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 2109
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
June 7th, 2010 at 3:53:05 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

So the Wizard states that the last point, the 10 and its conversion is 15.25 to 1. (1 divided by .065554)

Interesting -- does anyone check his work??.....

Just wondering.

tuttigym


Yep, I did. It is exacly 55/839.
溺an Babes #AxelFabulous
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 2001
Joined: Mar 28, 2010
June 7th, 2010 at 4:00:02 PM permalink
Quote: rudeboyoi



so starting from the comeout roll on this hand they were 23:1 to get paid 1000:1 on their firebet.



i considered you could hit another point and try again but didnt feel like working out all the math at the moment.

this is why i put the statement "on this hand" in.
Doc
Doc
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 7287
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
June 7th, 2010 at 9:40:30 PM permalink
Geez, rudeboyoi, I think we are back to that issue I mentioned in another thread: language getting in the way of the discussions.

If you had said, 套from the come out roll, they were 23:1 to get paid 1000:1 on their fire bet on this hand, then I would have agreed with you.

Since you used a different word order, i.e., 套from the come out roll on this hand they were 23:1 to get paid 1000:1 on their fire bet, I interpreted your 登n this hand just to indicate which come out roll you were starting with, not that they had to win the full fire bet on the very next point.

Language, language, language.It can be more troubling than the math. At least for that part, we have the Wizard to set us straight. Any grammarians on this forum?
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 2001
Joined: Mar 28, 2010
June 7th, 2010 at 11:04:57 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

Geez, rudeboyoi, I think we are back to that issue I mentioned in another thread: language getting in the way of the discussions.

If you had said, 套from the come out roll, they were 23:1 to get paid 1000:1 on their fire bet on this hand, then I would have agreed with you.

Since you used a different word order, i.e., 套from the come out roll on this hand they were 23:1 to get paid 1000:1 on their fire bet, I interpreted your 登n this hand just to indicate which come out roll you were starting with, not that they had to win the full fire bet on the very next point.

Language, language, language.It can be more troubling than the math. At least for that part, we have the Wizard to set us straight. Any grammarians on this forum?



hehe i guess this is why commas are important
miplet
miplet
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 2109
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
June 8th, 2010 at 6:55:44 AM permalink
And incase anyone was wondering if the last point is 6 or 8: 125/909 5 or 9: 88/872
溺an Babes #AxelFabulous
  • Jump to: