I just visited the casinos in Tunica and one dealer stated (anecdotally) that the six point conversion happens about once a week. There was one individual elsewhere that stated some really long odds which I will not repeat here.

Thanks for the consideration.

tuttigym

The Wizard discusses the FireBet here: https://wizardofodds.com/craps/appendix4.html#firebet

In that article, the Wiz states that the odds of getting all six numbers is 0.000164

Quote:DJTeddyBearTutti! How ya doing? Long time...

The Wizard discusses the FireBet here: https://wizardofodds.com/craps/appendix4.html#firebet

In that article, the Wiz states that the odds of getting all six numbers is 0.000164

Well at a busy casino that operates 24/7, it would be interesting to know how many times the dice are passed in a week. It might indeed be close to the .000164 (1 in about every 6100 shooting opportunities). Another way to perceive the number of "shooting opportunities" is just to count the 7 outs. If a casino has about 900 7 outs a day between all of their tables, they would average a 6 Point fire bet per week.

Quote:appistappisI deal craps almost everyday......to say a six point fire bet is made once a week is laughable.....once every three months is more in line.

I mean, math is math, and the Wizard says it should happen once every 6100 times there is a 7 out. So we just have to figure out the average number of rolls per 7 out, the average number of rolls per hour, and that will tell us how often it hits per table. Then divide by the number of average active tables at a location. Viola!

Quote:cclub79I mean, math is math, and the Wizard says it should happen once every 6100 times there is a 7 out. So we just have to figure out the average number of rolls per 7 out, the average number of rolls per hour, and that will tell us how often it hits per table. Then divide by the number of average active tables at a location. Viola!

All from ask wiz craps

Ave. number of seven outs per 6 point fire bet: 6156

Ave. number of rolls per seven out: 8.52551

Ave. rolls per hour:

Players - rolls

1 - 249

3 - 216

5 - 144

7 - 135

9 - 123

11 - 102

Quote:DJTBTutti! How ya doing? Long time...

DJ: Thanks for the warm welcome. That was very nice and unexpected.

I recognize that dealers are casino employees and salesmen of sorts, so I am seriously doubting his assertions. Besides at 0.000164 odds, I will not indulge.

To All Others: Thanks for your quick and intellectual responses.

Quote:DJTBIn that article, the Wiz states that the odds of getting all six numbers is 0.000164

DJTB: I am an old, short, fat, dumpy dude with a somewhat slow mind, so answer me this: The .0001 number is at the 10,000th level is it not? I see where someone stated that conversion is at the 6100 to 1 level yet the 0.000164 seems to be at the 10,000+ to 1 level. Please straighten me out on this one. Thanks for the link. It was eye opening especially on point conversions in general.

tuttigym

Quote:mipletAll from ask wiz craps

Ave. number of seven outs per 6 point fire bet: 6156

Ave. number of rolls per seven out: 8.52551

Ave. rolls per hour:

Players - rolls

1 - 249

3 - 216

5 - 144

7 - 135

9 - 123

11 - 102

Thus at a 5 player table : 16.7 outs / hour. = 368 hours between fire bets = 1 every two weeks. If the table was constantly busy.

In a big enough casino with 4-6 active craps tables, I could see once a week happening. In a smaller casino with 1-2 tables not always active, once every 3 months seems reasonable too.

The easy way to turn it around is to enter it into a calculator: 1 / .000164 = 6,097.561

But to just read the post and 'accept it as true', follow along:

.0001 IS at the 10,000 level as you suspect. I.E. It's 1 in 10,000. That the same as 10,000 to 1.

.0002 is 2 in 10,000 which equals 1 in 5,000. Still with me?

.000164 is somewhere in between. Now is it easier to accept that it's about 1 in 6,100 ?

Quote:DJTB

The easy way to turn it around is to enter it into a calculator: 1 / .000164 = 6,097.561

But to just read the post and 'accept it as true', follow along:

.0001 IS at the 10,000 level as you suspect. I.E. It's 1 in 10,000. That the same as 10,000 to 1.

.0002 is 2 in 10,000 which equals 1 in 5,000. Still with me?

.000164 is somewhere in between. Now is it easier to accept that it's about 1 in 6,100 ?

Absolutely got it now. Thanks very much. The other dude had it right, but I doubted his math, so I need to get back to him and apologize, and make sure that he knows that I was wrong!!

The Fire Bet chart you linked me to is very descriptive. Is there another chart that is similar showing the odds of just consecutive point conversions by one shooter regardless of which points are in play? If so, can you link me there too? Thanks

tuttigym

Quote:tuttigym

The Fire Bet chart you linked me to is very descriptive. Is there another chart that is similar showing the odds of just consecutive point conversions by one shooter regardless of which points are in play? If so, can you link me there too? Thanks

tuttigym

There is an incomplete chart on that same page near the bottem Sharp Shooter

The formula for exact number of points use (67/165)^p*(98/165) for alteast number of points use (67/165)^p where p is the number of points.

tuttigym

And a player that gets the 4/10 first has more chance of completing all six than the guy who gets the 6/8 first.

But none of that affects the overall odds discussed on the Wiz' Craps page, FireBet section. Those odds are calculated for a new shooter, which is the only time you cal place the FireBet bet.

Quote:DJTBBut none of that affects the overall odds discussed on the Wiz' Craps page, FireBet section. Those odds are calculated for a new shooter, which is the only time you cal place the FireBet bet.

I understood that fact regarding the intial bet. I just wondered if those particular odds were available. It is no biggie and thanks for the reply.

tuttigym

three players had $5 on the firebet.

the 5 points already made were 4,5,6,8,9.

so all that was needed was a 10.

they hit the 10 to become the point but ended up sevening out.

so starting from the comeout roll on this hand they were 23:1 to get paid 1000:1 on their firebet.

3/24 to establish 10 as a point x 3/9 of making the 10 as the point.

1/8 x 1/3 = 1/24 or 23:1

So arent the odds LOWER than 1 in 24?

Hmmm... Actually, I think it is correct to rule out both possibilities. There's a 1 in 24 chance of "X", and 23 in 24 of something else.

The chance of hitting the 10 then 7 out, or hitting something else or 7 out or hitting something else and making that point are ALL covered in the 23 in 24 'other possibilities'.

I agree that things mentioned in your last paragraph are covered in the 23 of 24 "other possibilities." However, some of those other possibilities include making the sixth fire bet point. That is why the chance of the big win is greater than 1 in 24, given that all of the points except the 10 have already been made.

1. Sevening out.

2. Repeating a point already made (4 to 9).

3. Rolling a 10 on the come out roll, and then making it.

We need to quantify the second and third probabilities only. The shooter will eventually make a point, and then eventually make it or seven out. The probability that the point established and then made is 4 to 9 is:

(3/24)*(3/9) + (4/24)*(4/10) + (5/24)*(5/11) + (5/24)*(5/11) + (4/24)*(4/10) = 0.364394.

The probability of establishing a 10 point and then making it is (3/24)*(1/3) = 0.041667.

Let p be the probability of making a 10 point before sevening out. If the player makes any other point he is right back to where he started from. So...

p = 0.364394 × p + 0.041667

p × (1-0.364394) = 0.041667

p = 0.041667/(1-0.364394)

p = 0.065554

Quote:Doc... but it is far from easy to calculate.

Well, it was far from easy for ME to calculate. Then the Wizard went and made it look almost trivial. (I hate it when that happens.)

Quote:Wizardp = 0.065554

So the Wizard states that the last point, the 10 and its conversion is 15.25 to 1. (1 divided by .065554)

Interesting -- does anyone check his work??

Do you suppose that a Ph D candidate could do the research? How long would it take to validate that conclusion? and

Would a Ph D be awarded for such research?

Just wondering.

tuttigym

Quote:tuttigymSo the Wizard states that the last point, the 10 and its conversion is 15.25 to 1. (1 divided by .065554)

Interesting -- does anyone check his work??.....

Just wondering.

tuttigym

Yep, I did. It is exacly 55/839.

Quote:rudeboyoi

so starting from the comeout roll on this hand they were 23:1 to get paid 1000:1 on their firebet.

i considered you could hit another point and try again but didnt feel like working out all the math at the moment.

this is why i put the statement "on this hand" in.

If you had said, “…from the come out roll, they were 23:1 to get paid 1000:1 on their fire bet on this hand”, then I would have agreed with you.

Since you used a different word order, i.e., “…from the come out roll on this hand they were 23:1 to get paid 1000:1 on their fire bet”, I interpreted your “on this hand” just to indicate which come out roll you were starting with, not that they had to win the full fire bet on the very next point.

Language, language, language….It can be more troubling than the math. At least for that part, we have the Wizard to set us straight. Any grammarians on this forum?

Quote:DocGeez, rudeboyoi, I think we are back to that issue I mentioned in another thread: language getting in the way of the discussions.

If you had said, “…from the come out roll, they were 23:1 to get paid 1000:1 on their fire bet on this hand”, then I would have agreed with you.

Since you used a different word order, i.e., “…from the come out roll on this hand they were 23:1 to get paid 1000:1 on their fire bet”, I interpreted your “on this hand” just to indicate which come out roll you were starting with, not that they had to win the full fire bet on the very next point.

Language, language, language….It can be more troubling than the math. At least for that part, we have the Wizard to set us straight. Any grammarians on this forum?

hehe i guess this is why commas are important