tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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May 25th, 2010 at 3:25:09 PM permalink
Wizard: Can you or Goat or the Administrator provide the odds of successfully converting a SIX point "Fire Bet"?

I just visited the casinos in Tunica and one dealer stated (anecdotally) that the six point conversion happens about once a week. There was one individual elsewhere that stated some really long odds which I will not repeat here.

Thanks for the consideration.

tuttigym
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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May 25th, 2010 at 3:37:49 PM permalink
What a dealer will say to a player may not be the truth. I would think this Once A Week firebet takes place in the dealer break room or at the local watering hole after a shift ends. I mean its probability is supposedly .016 percent or something like that. I don't see how that could be happening quite so frequently.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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May 25th, 2010 at 3:52:52 PM permalink
Tutti! How ya doing? Long time...


The Wizard discusses the FireBet here: http://wizardofodds.com/craps/appendix4.html#firebet

In that article, the Wiz states that the odds of getting all six numbers is 0.000164
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
cclub79
cclub79
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May 25th, 2010 at 4:19:00 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Tutti! How ya doing? Long time...


The Wizard discusses the FireBet here: http://wizardofodds.com/craps/appendix4.html#firebet

In that article, the Wiz states that the odds of getting all six numbers is 0.000164



Well at a busy casino that operates 24/7, it would be interesting to know how many times the dice are passed in a week. It might indeed be close to the .000164 (1 in about every 6100 shooting opportunities). Another way to perceive the number of "shooting opportunities" is just to count the 7 outs. If a casino has about 900 7 outs a day between all of their tables, they would average a 6 Point fire bet per week.
likeplayingcrapsandbj
likeplayingcrapsandbj
Joined: May 17, 2010
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May 25th, 2010 at 4:36:23 PM permalink
I play craps every weeek and have never seen a 6 point fire. I have seen 5 or 6 repeating points very rarely. In an 8 hour day I have seen maybe 3 to 4 points made per hour per shooter but usually 2 points is the norm outside of the regular 7 hitting. That is why I play the Don't.
Last Man at the Table
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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May 25th, 2010 at 5:46:32 PM permalink
I don't have anywhere that amount of experience or alertness but I would agree that it does not happen that often. I don't think there are that many lengthy rolls and ofcourse the 2,3 and 12 would not count so you would be looking for a very lengthy roll that happened to hit all the point numbers.
appistappis
appistappis
Joined: Mar 27, 2010
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May 25th, 2010 at 6:25:08 PM permalink
I deal craps almost everyday......to say a six point fire bet is made once a week is laughable.....once every three months is more in line.
cclub79
cclub79
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May 25th, 2010 at 6:31:57 PM permalink
Quote: appistappis

I deal craps almost everyday......to say a six point fire bet is made once a week is laughable.....once every three months is more in line.



I mean, math is math, and the Wizard says it should happen once every 6100 times there is a 7 out. So we just have to figure out the average number of rolls per 7 out, the average number of rolls per hour, and that will tell us how often it hits per table. Then divide by the number of average active tables at a location. Viola!
miplet
miplet
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May 25th, 2010 at 7:02:26 PM permalink
Quote: cclub79

I mean, math is math, and the Wizard says it should happen once every 6100 times there is a 7 out. So we just have to figure out the average number of rolls per 7 out, the average number of rolls per hour, and that will tell us how often it hits per table. Then divide by the number of average active tables at a location. Viola!


All from ask wiz craps
Ave. number of seven outs per 6 point fire bet: 6156
Ave. number of rolls per seven out: 8.52551
Ave. rolls per hour:
Players - rolls
1 - 249
3 - 216
5 - 144
7 - 135
9 - 123
11 - 102
溺an Babes #AxelFabulous
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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May 26th, 2010 at 2:30:17 PM permalink
Quote: DJTB

Tutti! How ya doing? Long time...



DJ: Thanks for the warm welcome. That was very nice and unexpected.

I recognize that dealers are casino employees and salesmen of sorts, so I am seriously doubting his assertions. Besides at 0.000164 odds, I will not indulge.

To All Others: Thanks for your quick and intellectual responses.

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