Can this be answered?

Don't know if this question belongs on this site...If not, sorry.
Can I get help with Craps numbers? If I played this way (Below) for a weekend only, what would be my odds of leaving a winner? More specifically, over 3 days I play 100 hands at 5 rolls a hand (Please go with 5 for now) wagering same the way every time . Using 1200 on the Don't and 800 on the DO with 20.00 every other roll on the 12. Also after the point is established 300 in odds on the don't side of course.
So, I don't care about "The long haul" Only a weekend of play. Please take in to consideration 2, 3, 12, 11 and of course 7s.... If someone can do this math it would be greatly appreciated. Need anymore info? Ooops, and how much should I win or lose in dollars? What kind of bankroll do you think I need? Please excuse my naiveté..

Quote: mds

what would be my odds of leaving a winner?

in my opinion, I think you need to show an example of how you play.
I get the part about X number of rolls played over a weekend

Quote: mds

Using 1200 on the Don't and 800 on the DO with 20.00 every other roll on the 12. Also after the point is established 300 in odds on the don't side of course.

On the come out roll you bet 1200 don't pass and 800 pass line and 20 on 12
say point is a 6
now you lay odds of 300 on don't pass

and now another $1200 don't come bet (you mention the Don't) and $800 come bet?
This seems weird to do.
or are you just betting the pass/don't pass on the come out roll and every other come out roll you bet $20.

wait!!
you said
"every other roll"

this would mean to me maybe you bet the don't come and come bets too
I think you would need to be more specific or show an example of what you are trying to do or already do.

Quote: mds

Ooops, and how much should I win or lose in dollars?

should?
you mean your expectation
or do you mean
"how much could I win or lose in dollars?"

Sally

Thanks Sally for even attempting this one. Here is the sequence...

New player (Hand) (Every time a new player gets the dice I consider it a new hand)

1200 on the don't pass
800 on the Pass
20.00 12. (Only every other come out do I do this)
Number 6 is rolled.
I then put 300 in odds on the don't side. (Every time)
NO DC BETS AT ALL!

Now I sit and wait for a 7........
I am assuming an average of 5 rolls before a 7 or their number hits. ( Something I want to calculate)

Assume I bet the same way every single Come out bet.

Over 100 different come out rolls x5 rolls each, in the end, what would I lose or win in dollars? And, how big of a bank roll would I need? Also can you or anyone provide the %s of winning and/or losing? Not each and every roll but at the end of the 100x5 rolls..

I will tell you later why im betting the DOEY/DONT.... There are 2 maybe 3 huge reasons but doesn't matter right now...

Im trying to articulate this but obviously having trouble. Sorry

Quote: mds

1200 on the don't pass
800 on the Pass
20.00 12. (Only every other come out do I do this)
Number 6 is rolled.
I then put 300 in odds on the don't side. (Every time)
NO DC BETS AT ALL!

Nice

Quote: mds

Now I sit and wait for a 7........

and of course that only happens on average 66.7% of the time
the other 33.3% of the time you are either happy you won on the come out roll (roll of 2,3 or 12)
or
more times sad you lost to the 7 and 11
just my opinion
you could be happy either way :)

Quote: mds

I am assuming an average of 5 rolls before a 7 or their number hits. ( Something I want to calculate)

well, the average number of rolls for a pass line decision = 557/165
or about 3.37576 rolls
Don Catlin shows one method of calculating that here
http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/how-long-is-a-craps-roll-1240

I use this to get the same result
1+3/9+3/9+4/10+4/10+5/11+5/11 = 557/165

That value to me seems it would be more important to you because you can easily lose lots of real money on a come out roll. More come out rolls per 100 rolls than point decisions per 100 rolls on average.

But to answer this question,
on average what is the number of rolls before a 7 or their number hits?
So we can say given a point IS established, how many rolls on average until a 7 out or a point winner?

we need to sum 3 products
(36/9)*(6/24) + (36/10)*(8/24) +(36/11)*(10/24) = about 3.563636364
or exactly 196/55
very close to the value for the pass line decision.

The average number of rolls to set a point is just 36/24 = 1.5
so we can add that to 3.563636364 = about 5.063636364
or exactly 557/110
for the average number of rolls for a point decision.

Quote: mds

Assume I bet the same way every single Come out bet.
Over 100 different come out rolls x5 rolls each, in the end, what would I lose or win in dollars?

OK
About a $2900 average loss
Over 100 different come out rolls
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/
can help in calculating that value

100*$1200*0.0136 +
100*$800*0.0141 +
50*$20*.1389 = $2898.9

Quote: mds

And, how big of a bank roll would I need?

Depends on how high you want your Risk of Ruin to be
I simulated 40,000 players playing this (they all had a $100k start bankroll)
and the largest draw-down was $30k
of course, IF we knew the standard deviation of this play over 100 come out bets we could be more accurate in the answer.
But that takes more effort (math and/or sim)
I show about $5785 not calculated

The smaller the bankroll the greater the Risk of Ruin

Quote: mds

Also can you or anyone provide the %s of winning and/or losing?

my values are rounded
30% win ($3725 avg win from a win)
70% loss ($5830 avg loss from a loss)
(you could end up even with a small probability. This also does not factor in any value from comps)

Do have fun win or lose
Sally

Quote: mustangsally

Nice
and of course that only happens on average 66.7% of the time
the other 33.3% of the time you are either happy you won on the come out roll (roll of 2,3 or 12)
or
more times sad you lost to the 7 and 11
just my opinion
you could be happy either way :)
well, the average number of rolls for a pass line decision = 557/165
or about 3.37576 rolls
Don Catlin shows one method of calculating that here
http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/how-long-is-a-craps-roll-1240

I use this to get the same result
1+3/9+3/9+4/10+4/10+5/11+5/11 = 557/165

That value to me seems it would be more important to you because you can easily lose lots of real money on a come out roll. More come out rolls per 100 rolls than point decisions per 100 rolls on average.

But to answer this question,
on average what is the number of rolls before a 7 or their number hits?
So we can say given a point IS established, how many rolls on average until a 7 out or a point winner?

we need to sum 3 products
(36/9)*(6/24) + (36/10)*(8/24) +(36/11)*(10/24) = about 3.563636364
or exactly 196/55
very close to the value for the pass line decision.

The average number of rolls to set a point is just 36/24 = 1.5
so we can add that to 3.563636364 = about 5.063636364
or exactly 557/110
for the average number of rolls for a point decision.

OK
About a $2900 average loss
Over 100 different come out rolls
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/
can help in calculating that value

100*$1200*0.0136 +
100*$800*0.0141 +
50*$20*.1389 = $2898.9

Depends on how high you want your Risk of Ruin to be
I simulated 40,000 players playing this (they all had a $100k start bankroll)
and the largest draw-down was $30k
of course, IF we knew the standard deviation of this play over 100 come out bets we could be more accurate in the answer.
But that takes more effort (math and/or sim)
I show about $5785 not calculated

The smaller the bankroll the greater the Risk of Ruin
my values are rounded
30% win ($3725 avg win from a win)
70% loss ($5830 avg loss from a loss)
(you could end up even with a small probability. This also does not factor in any value from comps)

Do have fun win or lose
Sally

Thank you very much! You have reconfirmed my AP play. It just so happens I am 26/30 for winning $$ trips. Lucky maybe but due to an average of $5,000.00 or so in comps each trip (Sometimes 2,500 and other times 7,000 depending) the way I play I always come out ahead. well, most always. Lol It is possible to be an AP at Craps even in "the long run".

Slightly off topic, but this is the type stuff the Wizard should be getting paid for on this site.

Quote: mds

Thank you very much! You have reconfirmed my AP play. It just so happens I am 26/30 for winning $$ trips. Lucky maybe...

Maybe you do not average 100 come out roll bets per session? Maybe far less?

Your OP says this
"over 3 days I play 100 hands"
and you mention a hand is
"New player (Hand) (Every time a new player gets the dice I consider it a new hand)"

So 100 shooters = about 337 come out bets made over a weekend of play, on average.
and = on average, about 853 rolls total. This sounds reasonable.

I gave results for only what you asked last
"Assume I bet the same way every single Come out bet.
Over 100 different come out rolls..."

So, I really do not know how many come out roll bets you actually do make to win 26 out of 30 sessions.
Maybe most times no one knows, not even the casino as they I imagine just estimate.

That has about the same probability of one shooter surviving 153 rolls without a 7out
and that has only happened in a casino 1 time. (1 in 5.6 billion chance on average)

so your Craps AP comes from the casino giving you too much in comps
or are they giving you exactly what you figured you are worth to them?
Nice if you can always get it
Sally

Quote: mustangsally

my values are rounded
30% win ($3725 avg win from a win)
70% loss ($5830 avg loss from a loss)

That's about what I get as well - over 20,000,000 sets of 100 come-outs:
30.88% win (average loss $3710)
69.12% loss (average loss $5864)

Quote: ThatDonGuy

That's about what I get as well - over 20,000,000 sets of 100 come-outs:
30.88% win (average loss $3710)
69.12% loss (average loss $5864)

That is not too impressive but then "average loss" and "average win" can be misleading. All you need is ONE session that is spectacularly non-average... in either direction.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

That's about what I get as well - over 20,000,000 sets of 100 come-outs:
30.88% win (average loss $3710)
69.12% loss (average loss $5864)

Ah, I thought you would have calculated this by now.
I did not, yet, because I was watching the basketball game and I really want to know how many bets the OP really makes on average in his playing sessions.
Not just IF he makes that many.

so something like
ev: -2900
sd: 5785
ev/sd: -0.501296456
excel normsdist = 0.308081249 = even or better
(funny OP could actually play a session and end up even, just from his bets that is)

Sally

Quote: mustangsally

Ah, I thought you would have calculated this by now.
I did not, yet, because I was watching the basketball game and I really want to know how many bets the OP really makes on average in his playing sessions.
Not just IF he makes that many.

Er, what is it that I am supposed to be calculating?

Quote: mustangsally

Maybe you do not average 100 come out roll bets per session? Maybe far less?

Your OP says this
"over 3 days I play 100 hands"
and you mention a hand is
"New player (Hand) (Every time a new player gets the dice I consider it a new hand)"

So 100 shooters = about 337 come out bets made over a weekend of play, on average.
and = on average, about 853 rolls total. This sounds reasonable.

I gave results for only what you asked last
"Assume I bet the same way every single Come out bet.
Over 100 different come out rolls..."

So, I really do not know how many come out roll bets you actually do make to win 26 out of 30 sessions.
Maybe most times no one knows, not even the casino as they I imagine just estimate.

That has about the same probability of one shooter surviving 153 rolls without a 7out
and that has only happened in a casino 1 time. (1 in 5.6 billion chance on average)

so your Craps AP comes from the casino giving you too much in comps
or are they giving you exactly what you figured you are worth to them?
Nice if you can always get it
Sally

So 100 shooters = about 337 come out bets made over a weekend of play, on average.
and = on average, about 853 rolls total. This sounds reasonable.


I did say over 3 days I play 100 hands at 5 rolls per... That's 500 rolls total not 853..



So, I really do not know how many come out roll bets you actually do make to win 26 out of 30 sessions.

Not that it matters.... Not 26 out of 30 sessions but 26 out of 30 TRIPS that I have WON!.... each session averages maybe an hour max give or take.