Odds help - Roulette low odds

If I watch a roulette wheel, which produces exactly 100 spins an hour, and I monitor all the even money bets and all the 2/1 bets, how long before I see either a run of 13 even money chances or a run of 34 2/1 against chances? Assume I watch for 10 hours a day. Will I live to see it, given I'm pushing 65! :)

Thanks

Impossible to answer without knowing your shoe size.

8-1/2 UK .. :)

It was impossible for me, hence my asking better brains than mine.. ?

on a double-0 wheel, you'l see 13 straight even money wins about once every 165 hours, and 13 straight even money losses about once every 45 hours. 34 straight 2:1 losses once every 4000 hours or so, and 34 straight 2:1 wins is more than my tablet's calculator can handle.

Should have mentioned, being in the UK, I was thinking a single zero wheel..? Also do your numbers take into account that there are parallel sequences running for both types of bets..?

Well, then:

1:1 win: 116 hours
1:1 loss: 58 hours
2:1 loss: 6150 hours
2:1 win: you'll be dead.

I'm just taking (18/37)^13, (19/37)^13, (25/37)^34, and (12/37)^34.

OK, so with there being 6 even money chances, (red, black, odd, even, high, low) is it as simple as just dividing your numbers by 6 to get the time for any of those to rack up the sequence..? Same with rows, columns..?

Quote: DBC

If I watch a roulette wheel, which produces exactly 100 spins an hour, and I monitor all the even money bets and all the 2/1 bets, how long before I see either a run of 13 even money chances or a run of 34 2/1 against chances? Assume I watch for 10 hours a day. Will I live to see it, given I'm pushing 65! :)

Thanks

DBC.....just a warning. You are going to get a serious beat down (age notwithstanding nor the fact that your a new member) if you continue down this line of questioning. It's clear your working your way, teetering on the edge, peeking into the abyss known as the dreaded "gamblers fallacy". For the record I think your questions are legit as I think I know where your going with them. (P) Probability 50/50 even number bets (excluding 0/00) (n) number of trails and finally (DC) degree of certainty. Degree of certainty changes as number of trails increase. A real world observation and fact.

Fair point.. I am aware of the gamblers fallacy, and although I'd never heard of the degree of certainty, I guess that was what I was trying to get a handle on.. Fret not, I will not be tumbling into the Martingale abyss, and if I get 'a serious beat down', then at my age I'm pretty used to it! :)

Quote: DBC

Fair point.. I am aware of the gamblers fallacy, and although I'd never heard of the degree of certainty, I guess that was what I was trying to get a handle on.. Fret not, I will not be tumbling into the Martingale abyss, and if I get 'a serious beat down', then at my age I'm pretty used to it! :)

Your a good sport......Google, Ian Saliu's piece on the anti gamblers fallacy.....I find it interesting....

OK ta.. I will take a look at it..

Quote: DBC

OK ta.. I will take a look at it..

You will get a play a minute on the OP Roulette machines......

Is that fast..?

Was I right about this..? (Thought this would be placed below the relevant post? Anyway it was about just dividing the time by 6?)

Quote: DBC

If I watch a roulette wheel, which produces exactly 100 spins an hour, and I monitor all the even money bets and all the 2/1 bets, how long before I see either a run of 13 even money chances or a run of 34 2/1 against chances? Assume I watch for 10 hours a day.
Will I live to see it, given I'm pushing 65! :)

Thanks

Sure. I say you can see both in one years time
(on average - remember on average has a probability of about 65%)
wow Big questions.
13 in a row OR 34 in a row. (actually 23 in a row would be close to the 13 in a row for average number of spins required)

To answer your question I say 4 days on average for the 13 in a row.
3900 average spins/1000 spins watched per day = 3.9 days
That is from a simulation

Quote: DBC

OK, so with there being 6 even money chances, (red, black, odd, even, high, low) is it as simple as just dividing your numbers by 6 to get the time for any of those to rack up the sequence..? Same with rows, columns..?

Not "as simple as" but it will be close.

Dividing by 6 would be just fine for any streak length if we were looking for X number of runs total in N trials (say 34 runs in 100 spins)
you asked a different question basically...

How long does one have to wait until the first occurrence of 13 in a row? (for the 18/37 bets)

Let us start by showing the average wait time to see 13 in a row even money wins at 18/37
someone said that is 1/(18/37)^13 and that IS the number of trials to expect,
but each trial is NOT 1 spin in length so we need to do a bit more math that involves the sum of a geometric series.
We need to calculate the length of the average trial since our successful event covers 13 spins.
(we do not hit 13 wins every time in a row)

1/(18/37)^13 = 11697.14427 = # of trials

Now, For the average length of each trial
1+(18/37)^1+(18/37)^2+(18/37)^3...+(18/37)^13 = 1.944396172

or just the formula for the sum of a geometric series
(yeah we all had this is school. was not that interesting then, maybe)
S=a(1-r^n)/(1-r)
a= 1st term (1)
r = 18/37
n=13

to complete the calculation (zzzzzzzzzz)
1.944396172 * 11,697.14427 = 22,776.702 spins. OK


more reading here if so desired:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=22433211&postcount=14
or
Sally's thread here using Feller's formula:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/8141-on-average-how-many-trials-will-it-take-to-see-a-streak-of-8-qs-for-fun/

22,777 mean wait time (average) for 13 in a row.
The median is about 70% of that value

The against 2to1 would be 1/(25/37)^34 = 615,032.86 *
avg length of a trial is 3.08 =
1,896,348.25 spins on average for the 34 in a row
divide by 6 = 316,058.167
divide by 1000 spins per day = 316.05817 days



Here is why dividing by 6 does not always work.
from a run of length 3 to 7 we see ratios of 3.5 to 5.5
run of 3 (18/37)
avg # of trials: 14.97
from all 6
4.2 (3.56 ratio)

run of 4
avg # of trials: 32.82
from all 6
7.4 (4.435 ratio)

run of 5
avg # of trials: 69.52
from all 6
14.42 (4.82)

run of 6
avg # of trials: 144.95
from all 6
27.6 (5.25)

run of 7
avg # of trials: 300.01
from all 6
53.58 (5.60)

run of 8
avg # of trials: 618.75
from all 6
108.33 (5.71)

Kind of a pattern there
Like the length of the longest run in N trials
too much math there.

summary
for your long streaks (10+) divide by a little less than 6 and you be very close.
Of course, you can do the same thing by watching more than one table at a time. (more spins, more runs)

I wonder why you wanted to know this...
I wonder, wonder, wonder who, who wrote the book of love

Good Luck

From my own experience I can tell you: possibly not too long. I've seen already 15 in-a-row for both and only in one month spree, and definitely not 100 per hour, 10 hour a day. Randomness is captivating.

Quote: Fuengirola2

From my own experience I can tell you: possibly not too long. I've seen already 15 in-a-row for both and only in one month spree, and definitely not 100 per hour, 10 hour a day.

Long streaks actually do occur earlier than later in the average of things. It is the long disappearing acts (high variance)
that fools many in believing streaks are rare events.
of course everything is relative to the observer.

Quote: Fuengirola2

Randomness is captivating.

Yep.

So is Laura Nyro, Karen Carpenter and Dusty Springfield.
captivating female singing voices