Casibot Blackjack Simulator in error?
February 5th, 2013 at 5:06:03 PM
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Hi, I'm using this simulator to calculate the EV of various blackjack bonuses.
I'm getting some results I didn't expect and I'm wondering whether the simulator is broken or whether there's something I don't understand.
It seems to be a problem across the board, but specifically I'm looking at Blackjack (RTG), with a $100 deposit, $100 bonus, and $8000 rollover.
It's my understanding that you'd look at the amount you need to risk (8000) times the house edge (let's say 0.5%), in which case you'd "lose" 40, and finish with 160, keeping 60 from the bonus.
I would think the bet size is largely irrelevant (the exception being when you risk too high a % of your funds and compromise your ability to split and double), and only affects variance. However, the simulator shows that the EV of the bonus promotion increases with your bet size, up to 50% of the maximum (all-in) bet. Is there a logical reason for this?
Secondly, there's another promotion with a $100 deposit, $140 bonus, and $30000 rollover. It seems like a losing proposition to me, but on the simulator says it delivers a solid profit. Is the sim right?
Thanks.
I'm getting some results I didn't expect and I'm wondering whether the simulator is broken or whether there's something I don't understand.
It seems to be a problem across the board, but specifically I'm looking at Blackjack (RTG), with a $100 deposit, $100 bonus, and $8000 rollover.
It's my understanding that you'd look at the amount you need to risk (8000) times the house edge (let's say 0.5%), in which case you'd "lose" 40, and finish with 160, keeping 60 from the bonus.
I would think the bet size is largely irrelevant (the exception being when you risk too high a % of your funds and compromise your ability to split and double), and only affects variance. However, the simulator shows that the EV of the bonus promotion increases with your bet size, up to 50% of the maximum (all-in) bet. Is there a logical reason for this?
Secondly, there's another promotion with a $100 deposit, $140 bonus, and $30000 rollover. It seems like a losing proposition to me, but on the simulator says it delivers a solid profit. Is the sim right?
Thanks.
