What is the probability of having...
January 28th, 2013 at 7:19:01 AM
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I was playing BJ in a 6 deck shoe game on the Celebrity Reflection over New Years, with six people playing at the table.
With a freshly shuffled shoe, cards were dealt. What caught the eye of EVERYONE at the table was the fact that the first 6 cards out of the shoe were jacks. We each received one jack.
I've played a fair bit and never seen so many of any one card in a row - though I always wonder why my split 3's, 7's, and 8's always seem to draw more of the same cards! ;)
With a freshly shuffled shoe, cards were dealt. What caught the eye of EVERYONE at the table was the fact that the first 6 cards out of the shoe were jacks. We each received one jack.
I've played a fair bit and never seen so many of any one card in a row - though I always wonder why my split 3's, 7's, and 8's always seem to draw more of the same cards! ;)
January 28th, 2013 at 8:12:17 AM
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I get 1 in 9,069,000 for 6 jacks in a row off the top, or 1 in 697,616 to get 6 of any kind off the top (which I'm sure would also have been noticed).
Now, the odds that this would happen to someone eventually, and who would then post the event here are much better. In 500,000 shoes, the odds are better than 50-50 that a 6 of a kind will happen at some table. With thousands (someone have this number?) of BJ tables in the US, dealing around a hundred shoes a day, this event could happen somewhere in the US as often as daily. At least once a week, to be conservative.
Now, the odds that this would happen to someone eventually, and who would then post the event here are much better. In 500,000 shoes, the odds are better than 50-50 that a 6 of a kind will happen at some table. With thousands (someone have this number?) of BJ tables in the US, dealing around a hundred shoes a day, this event could happen somewhere in the US as often as daily. At least once a week, to be conservative.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
January 28th, 2013 at 8:36:56 AM
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To summarize dwheatley's reply:
Shit happens. It's not nearly as incredible as you think.
Shit happens. It's not nearly as incredible as you think.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
January 28th, 2013 at 9:49:46 AM
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Quote: dwheatleyI get 1 in 9,069,000 for 6 jacks in a row off the top, or 1 in 697,616 to get 6 of any kind off the top (which I'm sure would also have been noticed).
Now, the odds that this would happen to someone eventually, and who would then post the event here are much better. In 500,000 shoes, the odds are better than 50-50 that a 6 of a kind will happen at some table. With thousands (someone have this number?) of BJ tables in the US, dealing around a hundred shoes a day, this event could happen somewhere in the US as often as daily. At least once a week, to be conservative.
Thanks for crunching the numbers, and putting things into perspective as well!
January 28th, 2013 at 9:50:43 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearTo summarize dwheatley's reply:
Shit happens. It's not nearly as incredible as you think.
Yep - but I doubt I'll ever see a streak of 6 (of anything) again in my playing years (a couple good decades left)!
