Another odds calculator

How would you work out the odds in soccer betting (as a percentage and fractional) on a team to draw that has not drawn in 5 matches? To make it more complicated if you choose 10 teams that had not drawn for 5 matches each if you put one dollar on each what are your chances? Please help maths wizards (could you explain in leyman terms :)

Welcome to the board!

There is no answer to your question, because there is nothing to work with here, statistically. Also from a handicapping perspective, you need much more info to even begin to estimate some wildly inaccurate odds.

In absence of any information however, you may assume a probability of 25% for a draw, or 75% for no draw. (based on English Premier League statistics over the last couple of years)

Thanks Canyonero.

So the chance of getting a draw is 1 in 3? (win, loose, draw) what are the odds of 5 draws in a row?

Quote: GRP

So the chance of getting a draw is 1 in 3? (win, loose, draw) what are the odds of 5 draws in a row?

IF the odds of a draw are 1 in 3 then the odds of five draws in a row is (1/3) ^5 (1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3) which is 1 out of 243 or 242 to 1 against. Please note that the outcome of a win, a loss, and draw are most certainly not equally likely. To clarify, just because you have three possible outcomes, that doesn't mean that each outcome has a one-third chance.

If the odds of a draw happen to be 1 in 4 then the odds of five draws in a row is (1/4) ^5 (1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4) which is 1 out of 1,024 or 1,023 to 1 against.

Welcome to the forum.

(Note: lose, not loose.)

Well... as Canyonero as pointed out, there's a LOT of missing info to generate any kind of meaningful answer. Unlike roulette from the other thread, soccer is skillbased. Now, assuming we were rolling hypothetical 3-sided dice (each one representing W/L/T), getting the same result 5x in a row would be (1/3)^5, or .4% of the time, or about 1 in 243.

Using Canyonero's estimate of the league statistics indicating a 25% tie, it'd be a (1/4)^5, or .09%, or 1:1024.

But, well, sports teams aren't statistically even. Two evenly matched teams are more likely to result in a tie than, say, the best vs the worst teams in the league.

Quote: GRP

So the chance of getting a draw is 1 in 3? (win, loose, draw) what are the odds of 5 draws in a row?

Minor nitpick, but very important for odds calculation:

25% = 1 to 3 or 1 in 4

1 in 3 would equal 33.3%

Quote: Canyonero

Minor nitpick, but very important for odds calculation:

25% = 1 to 3 or 1 in 4

1 in 3 would equal 33.3%

Oh geez. It's like 1 to 2 and 1 for 2. Doesn't matter that I'm aware of the difference, I just never see the difference. ><

Cheers guys :) I thought it would be a complicated one. Ive been looking at the score cast sheets at the bookmakers and was going to bet on the draws for better odds than the win/lose ;) Trying to decide the best way to pick out 3 teams to draw from the form guide is tough.