37-Spin-Cycle Roulette Betting Options
July 11th, 2012 at 7:44:36 PM
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' Neither can God herself"
Would your boyfriend agree with that statement? No offense meant, just curious.
Would your boyfriend agree with that statement? No offense meant, just curious.
July 11th, 2012 at 8:31:08 PM
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Quote: NotnabHey Sally,
Hmmm ... nice precise calculations based on probability.
The thing is ... my strategy combines probability and real world stats based on my own real play. So, I don't rely solely on probability.
Also, choosing numbers randomly will produce different results compared to my number selection method and roulette strategy. I wait until 3 specific elements line up.
I appreciate your calculations, but unfortunately they have no bearing on my method and are unable to explain my results. ;-)
I just came to this forum today to ask a question, which has now been answered, together with a useful binomial tool thrown in for good measure.
Thanks again Sally. You're a darling. ;-)
I just ran a simulation where I spin the wheel 31 times. If there are exactly 19 missing numbers, I bet them for 6 more spins.
After 1,000,000 trials :
48154 times did we get exactly 19 missing numbers (4.8%)
I bet 5,489,556 units, and got 148,577 hits, which was hits on 51.42% of bet spins. This is almost 19/37 (19.02)
I won 5,348,772 units.
My net return was 97.435% (or EV of -2.565%).
I would expect a EV of -2.70%.
I suspect doing a 10 million play trial would narrow in further.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
July 11th, 2012 at 8:42:13 PM
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" I wait until 3 specific elements line up."
You overlooked this bit of information that separates this system from all others.
You overlooked this bit of information that separates this system from all others.
July 11th, 2012 at 11:46:09 PM
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guido111 postQuote: thecesspitI just ran a simulation where I spin the wheel 31 times. If there are exactly 19 missing numbers, I bet them for 6 more spins.
After 1,000,000 trials :
48154 times did we get exactly 19 missing numbers (4.8%)
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/10561-37-spin-cycle-roulette-betting-options/#post163057
showed 48,112 out of 1 million trials had 19 number not hit.
Here is mine.
#s HIT FREQ
13.00 6
14.00 97
15.00 732
16.00 3873
17.00 16042
18.00 48153 <<<<<< 18 #s HIT, so 19 #s NOT hit
19.00 106830
20.00 177283
21.00 216172
22.00 199199
23.00 133869
24.00 66874
25.00 23763
26.00 5923
27.00 1050
28.00 130
29.00 4
just way too close :)
Time for sleep.
I Heart Vi Hart
July 15th, 2012 at 8:26:06 AM
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Maybe veering a bit off the rails, but I'm a bit annoyed by the characterization of weathermen in this thread. They - or at least the better ones, not the ones behind most local stations - don't just look up at the clouds like us and say "ah, rain today." They sit around simulations, digging through data, doing exactly the kind of probabilistic analysis on well-understood models of observed phenomena that the OP is violently ignoring as it relates to a roulette wheel. The kind of intuition being touted is moderately useful in regard to the weather, but only because it tends to agree with these rules; a roulette wheel that doesn't agree with its mathematical model is quickly replaced with one that does. If they couldn't do this, they wouldn't carry roulette.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
June 8th, 2018 at 7:33:55 AM
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this can be now easily calculated using some R code online hereQuote: thecesspitI just ran a simulation where I spin the wheel 31 times. If there are exactly 19 missing numbers, I bet them for 6 more spins.
After 1,000,000 trials :
48154 times did we get exactly 19 missing numbers (4.8%)
https://sites.google.com/view/krapstuff/roulette
results for 31 spins
[1] "Number of coupons:37, draws:31, mean number drawn:21.1757, mean number NOT drawn:15.8243"
not drawn Probability cumulative
u=1 36 8.99390462847994e-48 8.99390462847994e-48
u=2 35 3.476567358601987e-37 3.476567358691926e-37
u=3 34 1.166599911736933e-30 1.166600259393669e-30
u=4 33 7.399689503996627e-26 7.399806164022566e-26
u=5 32 4.909590649415612e-22 4.910330630032014e-22
u=6 31 7.338301177176525e-19 7.343211507806558e-19
u=7 30 3.718572685291604e-16 3.72591589679941e-16
u=8 29 8.144296939222444e-14 8.181556098190437e-14
u=9 28 9.010198533619733e-12 9.092014094601637e-12
u=10 27 5.598313477934682e-10 5.689233618880698e-10
u=11 26 2.106243292662306e-08 2.163135628851113e-08
u=12 25 5.070538596284206e-07 5.286852159169318e-07
u=13 24 8.140999796792936e-06 8.669685012709868e-06
u=14 23 8.996639266794476e-05 9.863607768065463e-05
u=15 22 0.0007010897767681046 0.0007997258544487592
u=16 21 0.003924682512062407 0.004724408366511166
u=17 20 0.01600445511943886 0.02072886348595003
u=18 19 0.04802829356085191 0.06875715704680194
u=19 18 0.1067934003696408 0.1755505574164427
u=20 17 0.1766164086917032 0.3521669661081459
u=21 16 0.2174333570381847 0.5696003231463306
u=22 15 0.1988323179372599 0.7684326410835906
u=23 14 0.1343195000880416 0.9027521411716322
u=24 13 0.06641129808653028 0.9691634392581625
u=25 12 0.02369644670056947 0.992859885958732
u=26 11 0.005978434852968837 0.9988383208117008
u=27 10 0.001035379461223489 0.9998737002729243
u=28 9 0.0001177807088899918 0.9999914809818142
u=29 8 8.205693300569446e-06 0.9999996866751149
u=30 7 3.086781178897597e-07 0.9999999953532327
u=31 6 4.646767366082403e-09 1
u=32 5 0 1
u=33 4 0 1
u=34 3 0 1
u=35 2 0 1
u=36 1 0 1
u=37 0 0 1
[1] "Number of coupons:37, draws:31, mean number drawn:21.1757, mean number NOT drawn:15.8243"
my gift to any Roulette player
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
January 9th, 2019 at 8:57:18 PM
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i side with him on this. you guys are amazing mathematicians and are very good in running simulations but you are not considering the chaos built in any complex system like roulette. The analogy with weather was quite good because Roulette does behave like weather in some cases.
i have been using this exact method from almost 12 years now and it works. only downside is that it very slow and you have to have a lot of patience and wait a lot between your plays. so i usually go with couple of friends when i want to play like this. rest of the times i play for fur fun and loose my money :)
anyway let me take a stab in explaining what is happening here and why your simulation/models are not catching this. You are basing everything on the fact that each roulette spin is completely independent of the me thing is happening in your computer models also. But this is NOT true at all and that's why we have a probability distribution curve. In every 37 spins (no matter from when you start your observation) a particular pattern is made. Its not random. Chaos theory is in play here. So in short you are trying to solve a non-linear model by applying linear rules. Please think outside the box on this.Also, every table is unique and when you play , you use your gut/instincts also which tilt the odds in your favor by a slight amount (again missing in simulation)
Thoughts?
i have been using this exact method from almost 12 years now and it works. only downside is that it very slow and you have to have a lot of patience and wait a lot between your plays. so i usually go with couple of friends when i want to play like this. rest of the times i play for fur fun and loose my money :)
anyway let me take a stab in explaining what is happening here and why your simulation/models are not catching this. You are basing everything on the fact that each roulette spin is completely independent of the me thing is happening in your computer models also. But this is NOT true at all and that's why we have a probability distribution curve. In every 37 spins (no matter from when you start your observation) a particular pattern is made. Its not random. Chaos theory is in play here. So in short you are trying to solve a non-linear model by applying linear rules. Please think outside the box on this.Also, every table is unique and when you play , you use your gut/instincts also which tilt the odds in your favor by a slight amount (again missing in simulation)
Thoughts?
January 9th, 2019 at 9:02:17 PM
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Quote: quantumleapThoughts?
I suspect another betting system is about to be mentioned. I'll be keeping an eye on you.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 9th, 2019 at 9:39:58 PM
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Quote: quantumleap.Also, every table is unique and when you play , you use your gut/instincts also which tilt the odds in your favor by a slight amount (again missing in simulation)
Thoughts?
Why would your gut instincts ever tell you anything about where the ball will land on the next spin ?
January 9th, 2019 at 9:42:26 PM
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Quote: WizardI suspect another betting system is about to be mentioned. I'll be keeping an eye on you.
I don’t know what gave you that impression Mike. Can’t a guy just show up out of the blue and contest that he can make money despite what the math says based on his gut and intuition? I’m sure he knows the number one rule which is to stay hydrated. (Also a good nights sleep never hurts)
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
