Would your boyfriend agree with that statement? No offense meant, just curious.

Quote:NotnabHey Sally,

Hmmm ... nice precise calculations based on probability.

The thing is ... my strategy combines probability and real world stats based on my own real play. So, I don't rely solely on probability.

Also, choosing numbers randomly will produce different results compared to my number selection method and roulette strategy. I wait until 3 specific elements line up.

I appreciate your calculations, but unfortunately they have no bearing on my method and are unable to explain my results. ;-)

I just came to this forum today to ask a question, which has now been answered, together with a useful binomial tool thrown in for good measure.

Thanks again Sally. You're a darling. ;-)

I just ran a simulation where I spin the wheel 31 times. If there are exactly 19 missing numbers, I bet them for 6 more spins.

After 1,000,000 trials :

48154 times did we get exactly 19 missing numbers (4.8%)

I bet 5,489,556 units, and got 148,577 hits, which was hits on 51.42% of bet spins. This is almost 19/37 (19.02)

I won 5,348,772 units.

My net return was 97.435% (or EV of -2.565%).

I would expect a EV of -2.70%.

I suspect doing a 10 million play trial would narrow in further.

You overlooked this bit of information that separates this system from all others.

guido111 postQuote:thecesspitI just ran a simulation where I spin the wheel 31 times. If there are exactly 19 missing numbers, I bet them for 6 more spins.

After 1,000,000 trials :

48154 times did we get exactly 19 missing numbers (4.8%)

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/10561-37-spin-cycle-roulette-betting-options/#post163057

showed 48,112 out of 1 million trials had 19 number not hit.

Here is mine.

`#s HIT FREQ`

13.00 6

14.00 97

15.00 732

16.00 3873

17.00 16042

18.00 48153 <<<<<< 18 #s HIT, so 19 #s NOT hit

19.00 106830

20.00 177283

21.00 216172

22.00 199199

23.00 133869

24.00 66874

25.00 23763

26.00 5923

27.00 1050

28.00 130

29.00 4

just way too close :)

Time for sleep.

this can be now easily calculated using some R code online hereQuote:thecesspitI just ran a simulation where I spin the wheel 31 times. If there are exactly 19 missing numbers, I bet them for 6 more spins.

After 1,000,000 trials :

48154 times did we get exactly 19 missing numbers (4.8%)

https://sites.google.com/view/krapstuff/roulette

results for 31 spins

[1] "Number of coupons:37, draws:31, mean number drawn:21.1757, mean number NOT drawn:15.8243"

not drawn Probability cumulative

u=1 36 8.99390462847994e-48 8.99390462847994e-48

u=2 35 3.476567358601987e-37 3.476567358691926e-37

u=3 34 1.166599911736933e-30 1.166600259393669e-30

u=4 33 7.399689503996627e-26 7.399806164022566e-26

u=5 32 4.909590649415612e-22 4.910330630032014e-22

u=6 31 7.338301177176525e-19 7.343211507806558e-19

u=7 30 3.718572685291604e-16 3.72591589679941e-16

u=8 29 8.144296939222444e-14 8.181556098190437e-14

u=9 28 9.010198533619733e-12 9.092014094601637e-12

u=10 27 5.598313477934682e-10 5.689233618880698e-10

u=11 26 2.106243292662306e-08 2.163135628851113e-08

u=12 25 5.070538596284206e-07 5.286852159169318e-07

u=13 24 8.140999796792936e-06 8.669685012709868e-06

u=14 23 8.996639266794476e-05 9.863607768065463e-05

u=15 22 0.0007010897767681046 0.0007997258544487592

u=16 21 0.003924682512062407 0.004724408366511166

u=17 20 0.01600445511943886 0.02072886348595003

u=18 19 0.04802829356085191 0.06875715704680194

u=19 18 0.1067934003696408 0.1755505574164427

u=20 17 0.1766164086917032 0.3521669661081459

u=21 16 0.2174333570381847 0.5696003231463306

u=22 15 0.1988323179372599 0.7684326410835906

u=23 14 0.1343195000880416 0.9027521411716322

u=24 13 0.06641129808653028 0.9691634392581625

u=25 12 0.02369644670056947 0.992859885958732

u=26 11 0.005978434852968837 0.9988383208117008

u=27 10 0.001035379461223489 0.9998737002729243

u=28 9 0.0001177807088899918 0.9999914809818142

u=29 8 8.205693300569446e-06 0.9999996866751149

u=30 7 3.086781178897597e-07 0.9999999953532327

u=31 6 4.646767366082403e-09 1

u=32 5 0 1

u=33 4 0 1

u=34 3 0 1

u=35 2 0 1

u=36 1 0 1

u=37 0 0 1

[1] "Number of coupons:37, draws:31, mean number drawn:21.1757, mean number NOT drawn:15.8243"

my gift to any Roulette player

Sally

i have been using this exact method from almost 12 years now and it works. only downside is that it very slow and you have to have a lot of patience and wait a lot between your plays. so i usually go with couple of friends when i want to play like this. rest of the times i play for fur fun and loose my money :)

anyway let me take a stab in explaining what is happening here and why your simulation/models are not catching this. You are basing everything on the fact that each roulette spin is completely independent of the me thing is happening in your computer models also. But this is NOT true at all and that's why we have a probability distribution curve. In every 37 spins (no matter from when you start your observation) a particular pattern is made. Its not random. Chaos theory is in play here. So in short you are trying to solve a non-linear model by applying linear rules. Please think outside the box on this.Also, every table is unique and when you play , you use your gut/instincts also which tilt the odds in your favor by a slight amount (again missing in simulation)

Thoughts?

Quote:quantumleapThoughts?

I suspect another betting system is about to be mentioned. I'll be keeping an eye on you.

Quote:quantumleap.Also, every table is unique and when you play , you use your gut/instincts also which tilt the odds in your favor by a slight amount (again missing in simulation)

Thoughts?

Why would your gut instincts ever tell you anything about where the ball will land on the next spin ?

Quote:WizardI suspect another betting system is about to be mentioned. I'll be keeping an eye on you.

I don’t know what gave you that impression Mike. Can’t a guy just show up out of the blue and contest that he can make money despite what the math says based on his gut and intuition? I’m sure he knows the number one rule which is to stay hydrated. (Also a good nights sleep never hurts)