Expected Loss in Craps

So, I know that the HA for place bets on the 6/8 is ~1.52%, BUT what's the expected loss? Let me elaborate.

Let's say I place just one number, say the 6 for $6. I can go up to a max of $600. Whenever I hit a 6 I full press it, so it would go, 6, 12, 24, 48, 96, 192, 384, Max. What would be my expected loss on that $6?

At first I was thinking of it like this: If I hit one, I'll get $5 back on 11 bets made, so my % loss would be 61/66. Then I was thinking about two hits, and I was thinking I should hit two (5/11)^2 = 25/121 and getting $3 back per 2 hits or 3*75/(121*6) as a % loss. But I won't hit just 25X out of 121 placements, I should hit 55X, so I adjusted to say I should lose (75 +30)/(121*6) as a %. Now what about 3 hits? Does the math just get very complex and I haven't thought about it enough? Or does it not work this way?

I know my loss should approach ~1.52% per MONEY bet, but what I care about is what my expected loss is on the original $6 bet as a %.

I'm not a math guy at all, but considering only the original bet , you are ahead if a number hits 3 times.

You bet $6
6 pays $7 , so you get $1 back - you're down $5
12 pays $14 , so you get $2 back - you're down $3
24 pays $28 , so you get $4 back - you're now up $1

As far as calculating the house edge, only off the original bet I think the math logic might go something like this:

1st bet - $6 (original bet) bet gets paid $7, but since you are committed to pressing $6, it is really only paying you $1.
2nd bet - $5 (original bet - $1) bet gets paid $14, but you are committed to pressing $12, so it is only paying you $2.
3rd bet - $3 (original bet -$1 -$2) bet gets paid $28, but you are committed to pressing $24, so it is only paying you $4.
4th bet - you have $48 on the 6, and you have $1 more than when you started....

1st bet you are getting paid $1 for a $6 bet on the 6.
2nd bet you are getting paid $2 for a $5 bet on the 6.
3rd bet you are getting paid $4 for a $3 bet on the 6.

But I don't know how to put that in a formula.....

removed
silly

YES, exactly what you did was what I was thinking of doing, I just never got around to the calculations. So if I do BOTH 6 and 8, my average loss should be about 60 cents per shooter. That makes sense to me, and sounds about right, since average loss would be ~$0.18 if flat betting at $6. At first I was just going about it in a much too complicated way.

..double post..