Ivanpah Airport
January 20th, 2010 at 5:47:50 PM
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The airport was mixed with a different thread and combined with multiple transportation issued, I though I would repost.
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Since 1960 four major airports have opened in the USA. the question of how to do deal with the old airport was handled differently.
(1) 1962 Dulles outside of Washington DC -- National Airport remained open but nonstop flights restricted to no further than Texas
(2) 1973 Dallas Fort Worth -- Love Field remained open but nonstop flights restricted to Texas and adjacent states
(3) 28-Feb-95 Denver International Airport -- Stapleton Field was closed
(4) 23-May-99 Austin -- Robert Mueller Municipal Airport was closed
Phoenix has three runways and will not run out of capacity in the foreseeable future.
McCarran is supposed to be at capacity at 53 million psgrs. In 2008 there were 44 million psgrs. Although the load has dropped to near 40 million in 2009, there is going to be a record of decision later this year about building a reliever airport by 2018 in the Ivanpah Valley.
POST
My claim is that no one has ever opened a second airport without heavy subsidies, or serious restrictions on the original airport. There is no motivation for airlines to move to the remote airport on their own. It is far more profitable for an airline to stay at McCarran are an keep raising fares to control demand. Remote airports require new ground transportation systems which are never built because there is not enough traffic to justify the expense.
Even if there were no landing fees at all at the new airport an airline would not voluntarily move to Ivanpah because the loss in customers would not make up for not having any fees. And if there were no landing fees at all the cost of subsidizing the airport to Clark County would be astronomical.
If airlines are forced to move to Ivanpah, most would choose to stop operations rather than conduct a business at such a loss. Since Las Vegas is the biggest city for Southwest operations, they could not afford to abandon airports, but Southwest has too much political clout to be forced to change airports.
Essentially I believe that Las Vegas has no choice but to keep forcing efficiencies out of the original airport. This reliever airport idea is a fantasy. I'm not saying that the purchase of the land was a mistake (who knows what will happen by the end of the century), but right now it is a fantasy.
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Since 1960 four major airports have opened in the USA. the question of how to do deal with the old airport was handled differently.
(1) 1962 Dulles outside of Washington DC -- National Airport remained open but nonstop flights restricted to no further than Texas
(2) 1973 Dallas Fort Worth -- Love Field remained open but nonstop flights restricted to Texas and adjacent states
(3) 28-Feb-95 Denver International Airport -- Stapleton Field was closed
(4) 23-May-99 Austin -- Robert Mueller Municipal Airport was closed
Phoenix has three runways and will not run out of capacity in the foreseeable future.
McCarran is supposed to be at capacity at 53 million psgrs. In 2008 there were 44 million psgrs. Although the load has dropped to near 40 million in 2009, there is going to be a record of decision later this year about building a reliever airport by 2018 in the Ivanpah Valley.
POST
My claim is that no one has ever opened a second airport without heavy subsidies, or serious restrictions on the original airport. There is no motivation for airlines to move to the remote airport on their own. It is far more profitable for an airline to stay at McCarran are an keep raising fares to control demand. Remote airports require new ground transportation systems which are never built because there is not enough traffic to justify the expense.
Even if there were no landing fees at all at the new airport an airline would not voluntarily move to Ivanpah because the loss in customers would not make up for not having any fees. And if there were no landing fees at all the cost of subsidizing the airport to Clark County would be astronomical.
If airlines are forced to move to Ivanpah, most would choose to stop operations rather than conduct a business at such a loss. Since Las Vegas is the biggest city for Southwest operations, they could not afford to abandon airports, but Southwest has too much political clout to be forced to change airports.
Essentially I believe that Las Vegas has no choice but to keep forcing efficiencies out of the original airport. This reliever airport idea is a fantasy. I'm not saying that the purchase of the land was a mistake (who knows what will happen by the end of the century), but right now it is a fantasy.
Last edited by: pacomartin on Jan 21, 2010
January 20th, 2010 at 6:58:52 PM
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I agree with the post above. They are already building another wing at McCarran, which I think will suffice for now. As pointed out in another thread, if small aircraft were enticed to use the Henderson or North Las Vegas airports, via more equitable landing fees, McCarran could accommodate a lot more passengers coming in large planes. If Vegas has a significant increase in population and/or tourist volume, maybe, but I'm pessimistic about that. Let's wait until 2020 to even consider it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 21st, 2010 at 3:17:10 AM
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The average take off and landing at McCarran has 76 passengers. Most people would think that the average would be closer to the roughly 125 people that a typical Southwest jet carries. In general, people are surprised at how many landings and takeoffs are actually done by private jets, small regional jets, and cargo jets. Furthermore small regional jets are not used to fly to regional destinations; they simply fly to other major airports as airlines look to dissect the market to look for perceived business efficiencies.
The airports need to decide how much they can tolerate. The private jet industry is still healthy in spite of some bad press, but to build new major airport facilities to handle these jets seems relatively obscene.
FAA regulations forbid any airport from refusing the right to land to any type of plane. But it is not illegal to make it prohibitively expensive.
=============================
Quickly looking at American Airlines Schedule of 22 daily flights to Las Vegas.
# Distances from Las Vegas
3 Los Angeles (LAX) 236mi
11 Dallas/Ft Worth (DFW) 1,054mi
4 Chicago (O'Hare) (ORD) 1,512mi
3 Miami (MIA) 2,173mi
1 New York (JFK) 2,245mi
Low cost competitor
New York (JFK) - Jet Blue also flies to JFK - southwest flies to Long Island 37 miles away
Miami (MIA) - Southwest and other airlines fly to Ft. Lauderdale
Los Angeles (LAX) - Southwest flies to LAX Chicago (O'Hare) - Southwest flies to Chicago Midway
Dallas/Ft Worth (DFW) - No direct competition until 2014 when Southwest will legally be permitted to fly from Dallas Love Field to Las Vegas. Right now Southwest must stop at an intermediate airport adding at least 90 minutes to the flight
American Airlines is the 5th ranked airline to fly into Vegas, and one of the few to increase passengers. Clearly American Airlines makes their profit on passengers that connect to international flights at one of their hubs. Probably a handful of international passengers on average makes the flight profitable. In the case of Dallas since there is no clear competition they make money on bringing people from Dallas to Las Vegas as well. They only need one flight to JFK since most European flights leave in the evening for Euorpe. The plane simply arrives in late afternoon.
However any airline has to count on domestic passengers (where the destination city is Las Vegas or the other city) to provide enough revenue to cover the basic costs of the flight. If American is sent to Ivanpah, and Southwest remains at McCarran, American would no longer be competitive for the domestic passenger.
Although it would be unprecedented for a major airline stop all flights to a major airport, it just might not be worth it to American Airlines to keep a presence in Las Vegas. Alternatively it would only fly 1 or 2 planes to each of their hubs, because only international passengers will find it worth their while to drive to Ivanpah to catch their connecting flights.
Other major airlines will go through the same analysis. Here are the five largest and the passengers brough in 2009. None of these airlines fly nonstop to international destinations from McCarran, but all of them (besides Southwest) fly international via connections to their hubs.
Southwest | 15,560,040 | 38.4%
US Airways | 4,659,728 | 11.5%
United | 2,780,338 | 6.9%
Delta | 2,288,900 | 5.7%
American | 2,236,310 | 5.5%
There is a 98 page Proposal to Construct and Operate a New Supplemental Commercial Service Airport in the Ivanpah Valley prepared for the Clark County Department of Aviation. Typically it doesn't tackle the very difficult question of how you would actually go about dividing up the air traffic to see who will go to Ivanpah and who will stay at McCarran.
The airports need to decide how much they can tolerate. The private jet industry is still healthy in spite of some bad press, but to build new major airport facilities to handle these jets seems relatively obscene.
FAA regulations forbid any airport from refusing the right to land to any type of plane. But it is not illegal to make it prohibitively expensive.
=============================
Quickly looking at American Airlines Schedule of 22 daily flights to Las Vegas.
# Distances from Las Vegas
3 Los Angeles (LAX) 236mi
11 Dallas/Ft Worth (DFW) 1,054mi
4 Chicago (O'Hare) (ORD) 1,512mi
3 Miami (MIA) 2,173mi
1 New York (JFK) 2,245mi
Low cost competitor
New York (JFK) - Jet Blue also flies to JFK - southwest flies to Long Island 37 miles away
Miami (MIA) - Southwest and other airlines fly to Ft. Lauderdale
Los Angeles (LAX) - Southwest flies to LAX Chicago (O'Hare) - Southwest flies to Chicago Midway
Dallas/Ft Worth (DFW) - No direct competition until 2014 when Southwest will legally be permitted to fly from Dallas Love Field to Las Vegas. Right now Southwest must stop at an intermediate airport adding at least 90 minutes to the flight
American Airlines is the 5th ranked airline to fly into Vegas, and one of the few to increase passengers. Clearly American Airlines makes their profit on passengers that connect to international flights at one of their hubs. Probably a handful of international passengers on average makes the flight profitable. In the case of Dallas since there is no clear competition they make money on bringing people from Dallas to Las Vegas as well. They only need one flight to JFK since most European flights leave in the evening for Euorpe. The plane simply arrives in late afternoon.
However any airline has to count on domestic passengers (where the destination city is Las Vegas or the other city) to provide enough revenue to cover the basic costs of the flight. If American is sent to Ivanpah, and Southwest remains at McCarran, American would no longer be competitive for the domestic passenger.
Although it would be unprecedented for a major airline stop all flights to a major airport, it just might not be worth it to American Airlines to keep a presence in Las Vegas. Alternatively it would only fly 1 or 2 planes to each of their hubs, because only international passengers will find it worth their while to drive to Ivanpah to catch their connecting flights.
Other major airlines will go through the same analysis. Here are the five largest and the passengers brough in 2009. None of these airlines fly nonstop to international destinations from McCarran, but all of them (besides Southwest) fly international via connections to their hubs.
Southwest | 15,560,040 | 38.4%
US Airways | 4,659,728 | 11.5%
United | 2,780,338 | 6.9%
Delta | 2,288,900 | 5.7%
American | 2,236,310 | 5.5%
There is a 98 page Proposal to Construct and Operate a New Supplemental Commercial Service Airport in the Ivanpah Valley prepared for the Clark County Department of Aviation. Typically it doesn't tackle the very difficult question of how you would actually go about dividing up the air traffic to see who will go to Ivanpah and who will stay at McCarran.
Last edited by: pacomartin on Jan 23, 2010
June 11th, 2010 at 6:46:42 AM
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Ivanpah in a holding pattern.
Planning on Ivanpah airport is being stopped in order to save money. Reduction in flights means that a new airport will not be needed for the near future.
In 2010, passenger counts are 3.9 percent lower than in 2009, and 2009's numbers were 8.2 percent less than 2008's counts.
The Next Generation Air Transportation System involves replacing ground-based air traffic control systems with one using satellites, which will allow planes to fly closer together on more direct routes, according to the Federal Aviation Administration. If the program is fully funded, McCarran could handle 60 million people a year, she said.
McCarran was the nation's seventh-busiest airport in 2009 with 40.5 million passengers.
Planning on Ivanpah airport is being stopped in order to save money. Reduction in flights means that a new airport will not be needed for the near future.
In 2010, passenger counts are 3.9 percent lower than in 2009, and 2009's numbers were 8.2 percent less than 2008's counts.
The Next Generation Air Transportation System involves replacing ground-based air traffic control systems with one using satellites, which will allow planes to fly closer together on more direct routes, according to the Federal Aviation Administration. If the program is fully funded, McCarran could handle 60 million people a year, she said.
McCarran was the nation's seventh-busiest airport in 2009 with 40.5 million passengers.
