ThatDonGuy
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August 30th, 2021 at 10:20:55 AM permalink
I just got an email from Caesar's touting their latest sale - and got 4 weeknights at Bally's in early October for $55 a night.
That's $55 a night after the Resort Fee and taxes.
A few other hotels, like Paris and Planet Hollywood, had near bargain basement rates for a few nights as well.

These are much lower than the sale they had about a month ago. Are people abandoning Vegas trips, at least in the short term?
DRich
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August 30th, 2021 at 10:32:58 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I just got an email from Caesar's touting their latest sale - and got 4 weeknights at Bally's in early October for $55 a night.
That's $55 a night after the Resort Fee and taxes.
A few other hotels, like Paris and Planet Hollywood, had near bargain basement rates for a few nights as well.

These are much lower than the sale they had about a month ago. Are people abandoning Vegas trips, at least in the short term?



Yes, all tourism is starting to slow down again. Look at the airlines, almost all of them are cutting flights now.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
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August 30th, 2021 at 10:42:04 AM permalink
I'd been planning on attending a reunion in Ft Lauderdale the first week in October. In May, we had almost a hundred people signed up to attend. By June it was down to eighty and an awful lot of people are talking about pulling out. I'd been planning on driving there with a business layover in Ft Worth but am having second thoughts.
Usually we meet in Gettysburg in the Spring but the last two were canceled.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
rxwine
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August 30th, 2021 at 10:55:31 AM permalink
If it lasts after 3 months more, then I’d be surprised.
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billryan
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August 30th, 2021 at 11:04:12 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

If it lasts after 3 months more, then I’d be surprised.



You think this is going away in three months? I wish I could be that optimistic.
In any event, my reservations are less than 45 days away and I don't think Florida is going to pull of a miracle in the next month. I've no interest in attending a gathering of 50-100 people at this point.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
billryan
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August 30th, 2021 at 11:04:21 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

If it lasts after 3 months more, then I’d be surprised.



You think this is going away in three months? I wish I could be that optimistic.
In any event, my reservations are less than 45 days away and I don't think Florida is going to pull of a miracle in the next month. I've no interest in attending a gathering of 50-100 people at this point.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Gundy
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August 30th, 2021 at 11:17:05 AM permalink
I canceled two upcoming trips due to the stupid mask requirement.
billryan
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August 30th, 2021 at 11:21:40 AM permalink
Quote: Gundy

I canceled two upcoming trips due to the stupid mask requirement.




Good for you.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TDVegas
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August 30th, 2021 at 12:13:09 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I just got an email from Caesar's touting their latest sale - and got 4 weeknights at Bally's in early October for $55 a night.
That's $55 a night after the Resort Fee and taxes.
A few other hotels, like Paris and Planet Hollywood, had near bargain basement rates for a few nights as well.

These are much lower than the sale they had about a month ago. Are people abandoning Vegas trips, at least in the short term?


Probably to a certain degree…yes.

Someone was reporting that Wynn had massive cancellations after the 2nd mask mandate was invoked.

Personally, no chance do I want to vacation with a mask on. Just no. Since gambling is a part of Vegas…people have to wear masks indoors. And no, I’m not looking to circumvent the rules with a glass glued to my hand.

I was on the Strip on Saturday. Tom’s Urban for a beer at outdoor bar. Bartender was sweet, nice enough…but the damn conversation with her is a mumbled mess because she has to wear a mask. Unintelligible to a certain extent.

I’m not surprised visitation has slowed. Strip seemed less packed for a Saturday.
AlanMendelson
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August 30th, 2021 at 1:29:28 PM permalink
Reality is setting in. The Delta surge is really scaring people and the end of extended unemployment benefits and the lack of new stimulus payments are hurting consumer spending. At the same time prices have gone up limiting discretionary spending.

This is not a political statement. This is what's going on.
redietz
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August 30th, 2021 at 1:53:51 PM permalink
Before the latest media-monopolizing surges in Florida, Texas, and Louisiana, Las Vegas had been listed as the top urban hot spot do-not-go location. This was roughly four/five weeks ago.

Not surprising LV is slowing down. Especially considering you know every possible angle is being manipulated to reduce Covid mentions and rates in the city. We had been getting the PR Disney version of Las Vegas on Covid, and it was still the worst go-to in the country.

And then Florida and Texas blew up and took away the spotlight.

Here's the great thing. There are about 15 variants in the U.S. right now with some significant numbers (not one-offs), so this find-a-vaccine-that-works game for variants is turning into Russian roulette. You're getting the foreshadowing in the media right now. Academic articles predicting vaccine-evading variants have made the news in the last three days. All the time you're getting various boosters for this and that, you have to hope what you catch isn't one of the new variants that evades vaccine coverage and that hasn't established itself enough to be "recognized" formally.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
rxwine
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August 30th, 2021 at 3:18:04 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

You think this is going away in three months? I wish I could be that optimistic.
In any event, my reservations are less than 45 days away and I don't think Florida is going to pull of a miracle in the next month. I've no interest in attending a gathering of 50-100 people at this point.



Doesn't seem too optimistic since we've been at this for a year and a half already.
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billryan
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August 30th, 2021 at 3:51:29 PM permalink
It's the end of August. Other than the fact we are 18 months into the pandemic, what makes you think the next two or three months are going to be better? Cases are up, deaths are up, hospitalizations are up. I thought we'd have far more under control by know but I misjudged the American peoples intelligence. I never dreamed people would fight the vaccine like some are doing.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TDVegas
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August 30th, 2021 at 4:32:46 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

It's the end of August. Other than the fact we are 18 months into the pandemic, what makes you think the next two or three months are going to be better? Cases are up, deaths are up, hospitalizations are up. I thought we'd have far more under control by know but I misjudged the American peoples intelligence. I never dreamed people would fight the vaccine like some are doing.


Not sure when the next pandemic hits…but we are probably going to have to come up with a different plan than just “please get vaccinated”.

Obviously that plan has been a failure.
rxwine
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August 30th, 2021 at 5:06:55 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

It's the end of August. Other than the fact we are 18 months into the pandemic, what makes you think the next two or three months are going to be better? Cases are up, deaths are up, hospitalizations are up. I thought we'd have far more under control by know but I misjudged the American peoples intelligence. I never dreamed people would fight the vaccine like some are doing.



Not the next 3 months, At the end of 3 months.

Between vaccinations and already infected, we should be well on the back side of Everest on the way down. Our surges shouldn't be as big even if they happen.

I'm not as worried on new variants, as long as even the new ones don't generally kill the vaccinated.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
mcallister3200
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August 30th, 2021 at 5:09:35 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

It's the end of August. Other than the fact we are 18 months into the pandemic, what makes you think the next two or three months are going to be better?.



Projections had been Delta would peak in late August, in some places it already has. I don’t know that there’s reason to believe the next 2-3 months will be “better,” but as fast as Delta spreads I think there’s some reason to believe we’ll get to where we may be inevitably heading that everyone’s going to have had it at some point faster and so less vulnerable to newer strains.

Edit: same thoughts as rxwine didn’t see it when started.
billryan
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August 30th, 2021 at 5:53:23 PM permalink
I pray that you are right, but I'm not optimistic.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ChumpChange
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August 30th, 2021 at 6:18:22 PM permalink
Somebody had COVID for 155 days and developed over 20 variants inside himself alone. Some were very similar to variant breakouts in other countries. Maybe the variants have a pattern of inventing themselves that's somewhat repeatable.
redietz
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August 30th, 2021 at 6:18:26 PM permalink
Vaccinating without a shutdown was going to have certain predictable effects, like hyper-charging the virus to evade vaccines. Michael Osterholm, who has been correct about just about everything from the beginning, referred to the current U.S. strategy as "trying to paint a train going 180 miles an hour."

If you'll notice, you don't have any evolutionary biologists on podiums being asked how to stop viral spread. There's a reason for that.
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Gialmere
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August 31st, 2021 at 10:58:17 AM permalink
Has anyone been to the Fashion Outlets Mall in Primm lately? "Ghost town" doesn't even begin to describe it.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
MDawg
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August 31st, 2021 at 11:13:25 AM permalink
Vegas definitely became a little less busy in August, than it was in July 2021, but far from "dead."

Las Vegas roars back to life with record gambling win
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
TDVegas
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August 31st, 2021 at 11:24:35 AM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

Has anyone been to the Fashion Outlets Mall in Primm lately? "Ghost town" doesn't even begin to describe it.


It’s been that way for a while. Primm went downhill completely over the years. Changes in ownership, etc. The outlet mall was down to a handful of stores last time I was there. Yes, ghost town is about accurate.

I think they closed down the Mad Greek cafe too. Hotels are in need of renovation and repair. All are dated. I think the roller coaster stopped running too. Not sure what will become of Primm..but the heyday is pretty much over. The pot complex down the road in Nipton also looks abandoned.

Reminds me of the old Playboy Club in northern NJ. It was like a relic from 1972, left in time….and left to rot. Eeery walking around the mall.
gordonm888
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August 31st, 2021 at 12:43:33 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

It's the end of August. Other than the fact we are 18 months into the pandemic, what makes you think the next two or three months are going to be better? Cases are up, deaths are up, hospitalizations are up. I thought we'd have far more under control by know but I misjudged the American peoples intelligence. I never dreamed people would fight the vaccine like some are doing.



According to the CDC, the weighted average of US vaccines decrease your chance of getting infected and being able to retransmit by a factor of (I am going by memory) 3.4x. Less than a factor of 4X reduction! That's discouraging. And the effectiveness of the vaccines are diminishing with time (each vaccine at a different rate) since the initial vaccination dates. There also seems to be little announced data on the degradation rate of effectiveness of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which - at only one shot - seems unlikely to endure as well as the the two-shot vaccines.

I am pro-vaccine (my immunocompromised wife got her booster shot last week.). But vaccinating an additional 20-40% of the US population so as to reduce transmission by <4x in that population cohort doesn't seem likely to make a decisive difference in stamping out the delta variant - the appearance is that even with 70%, or 80% vax rates the delta variant of the novel coronavirus will be with us a long time. As will booster shots.

The virus variants have arisen in India, Africa, the UK, etc. so let's not blame vax-resisters in the U.S. for allowing new mutations to occur. The US has about 150 million unvaccinated persons in a world of 7 billion people so I question whether we are the likely future spawning ground for killer vaccines.

This is a hard problem and, IMO, the current set of vaccines probably are not the silver bullet.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
joedol
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August 31st, 2021 at 12:52:04 PM permalink
I just got this from the CDC website.

What are the odds of getting Covid after Covid-19 vaccine?
The rate of breakthrough cases reported among those fully vaccinated is “well below 1 percent in all reporting states, ranging from 0.01 percent in Connecticut to 0.29 percent in Alaska,” according to the Kaiser analysis.Aug 3, 2021

That's good enough for me.
TDVegas
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August 31st, 2021 at 1:21:18 PM permalink
Israel, at near 80% vaccination rate just had one of their highest ever case counts.

I have no idea where this all ends…but it’s not looking like anytime soon.
DRich
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August 31st, 2021 at 3:45:54 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

Israel, at near 80% vaccination rate just had one of their highest ever case counts.

I have no idea where this all ends…but it’s not looking like anytime soon.



Want to make a wager? Will the last person alive be vaccinated or not? $1 wager and you can have either side.
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gordonm888
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August 31st, 2021 at 6:43:30 PM permalink
Quote: joedol

I just got this from the CDC website.

What are the odds of getting Covid after Covid-19 vaccine?
The rate of breakthrough cases reported among those fully vaccinated is “well below 1 percent in all reporting states, ranging from 0.01 percent in Connecticut to 0.29 percent in Alaska,” according to the Kaiser analysis.Aug 3, 2021

That's good enough for me.



That means that the fraction of people who have been vaccinated and then were reinfected was <1% as of July 2021. What you need to compare that to is the fraction of people who didn't get vaccinated but were also infected during the same time period.

And that number is affected by the bottoming out of the nation-wide infection rate in June and July. Since that study was done, the infection rate has soared in August -becaus ethe Delta variant is running through the nation.. The numbers would be higher now, if you just considered the infection rates of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons in the month of August.

Finally, that number is also affected by the word "reported," meaning people who were vaccinated and got sick enough that they took a test, which then came back as positive. You don't have to get that sick after infection to spread the disease.

The same CDC site says the overall effecrtiveness of the vaccines in preventing infection is less than a factor of 4. If that's good enough for you, then that's an interesting commentary.

Ag
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
MDawg
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August 31st, 2021 at 9:28:34 PM permalink
I took a long stroll (not a victory stroll, I didn't even play today, just a regular stroll), up and down the entire Strip stopping into all of the Majors (no dumps).

While by no means bustling, the high limit salons were far from empty, and many a high roller with stacks of yellow chips was ensconced at more than a few tables, at each casino I visited. Granted, my definition of busy centers around the high limit patrons, but typically if those salons are busy, the rest of the casino is well occupied too.

Not bad really, for a Tuesday in August.

And I expect Labor Day Weekend to be packed.
Last edited by: MDawg on Aug 31, 2021
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Ace2
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September 1st, 2021 at 8:32:37 AM permalink
Which strip casinos are the dumps ?
It’s all about making that GTA
mcallister3200
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September 1st, 2021 at 8:44:23 AM permalink
I nominate Treasure Island first, has to have the worst smelling casino in the city. Very fitting he bought Circus.
MDawg
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September 1st, 2021 at 9:18:15 AM permalink
I haven't spent enough time in T.I. lately to know for sure...maybe I will walk back in there again today just for kicks if I end up doing another Strip stroll...but I always recall T.I. as smelling like cheap hand lotion, such that it would sometimes make my eyes burn or water. Has that changed? because I don't particularly recall any bad smells, just the hand lotion fragrance wafting through the air.

As far as Circus Circus, I've walked through there once this trip and on past occasions. It doesn't particularly stink either, even though I've seen homeless practically camped out in there.

I actually saw a homeless person lying down in front of Belluso the high end watch shop at Palazzo one day during this trip. One of the watch salesmen was outside the store trying to get him to move on. I assume that security was on its way.

Still, if the topic of this thread remains...how busy is Vegas...T.I. (and Circus Circus) both seem pretty busy every time I have walked through. Obviously Phil Ruffin has found his target customer base. Not much high limit going on at T.I. these days though, seems like their entire high limit pit is closed during the day except on or around weekends.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
TDVegas
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September 1st, 2021 at 10:10:18 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

I nominate Treasure Island first, has to have the worst smelling casino in the city. Very fitting he bought Circus.


Yeah…not a fan of TI.

Frankly I liked it a lot better when it was pirate themed with the show out front.
mcallister3200
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September 1st, 2021 at 10:24:38 AM permalink
I’m surprised Mdawg admitted to ever walking through Circus, got an image to upkeep after all.
MDawg
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September 1st, 2021 at 10:31:03 AM permalink
There was one day when I was thinking of walking through there again maybe even playing with just $500. cash and slumming it for a change, and went instead to one of the usual high end haunts and dumped a lot of money (yes, believe it or not, if you look closely at all my session reports there are some days when I have lost big). Afterwards I was like, @%$%! I should have just gone to Circus Circus today.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
TumblingBones
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September 1st, 2021 at 1:35:22 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

The same CDC site says the overall effectiveness of the vaccines in preventing infection is less than a factor of 4.


You have a link for this? I looked on the CDC website but couldn't find it.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
joedol
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September 1st, 2021 at 1:48:03 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

That means that the fraction of people who have been vaccinated and then were reinfected was <1% as of July 2021. What you need to compare that to is the fraction of people who didn't get vaccinated but were also infected during the same time period.

And that number is affected by the bottoming out of the nation-wide infection rate in June and July. Since that study was done, the infection rate has soared in August -becaus ethe Delta variant is running through the nation.. The numbers would be higher now, if you just considered the infection rates of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons in the month of August.

Finally, that number is also affected by the word "reported," meaning people who were vaccinated and got sick enough that they took a test, which then came back as positive. You don't have to get that sick after infection to spread the disease.

The same CDC site says the overall effecrtiveness of the vaccines in preventing infection is less than a factor of 4. If that's good enough for you, then that's an interesting commentary.

Ag



My understanding of a breakthrough case is someone who is fully vaccinated but still gets covid. It doesn't matter if they previously had it or not.

I also didn't see that factor of 4 you mentioned.
gordonm888
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September 1st, 2021 at 1:50:18 PM permalink
Quote: TumblingBones

You have a link for this? I looked on the CDC website but couldn't find it.



I am having trouble finding that exact quote. Here is another, attributed: link

" preliminary data in Israel — which had one of the fastest vaccination programs in the world — published in July found that the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine was just 40.5% effective, on average, at preventing symptomatic disease.

The analysis, which was carried out as the delta variant became the country’s dominant strain, still found that having two doses of the shot provided strong protection against severe illness and hospitalization, however, the country’s Health Ministry reported.

The data also appeared to show a waning effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech shot, however, with the vaccine only 16% effective against symptomatic infection for those individuals who had two doses of the shot back in January."

So, Pfizer vax only reduces symptomatic infection by a factor of 2.5X "on average," and if it's been about 6 months since the vaccination, it only reduces symptomatic infection by 16%. So effectiveness of preventing symptomatic reinfection is low and declining with time, but it does better at preventing serious disease and death.

My point is that vaccines have questionable ability to stop the spread of the infection, but have effectiveness at preventing serious illness and death.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
joedol
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September 1st, 2021 at 2:07:12 PM permalink
From what I've been reading that Israeli report is an outlier. Until more studies like that one are published I'm going to stick with the masses.
billryan
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September 1st, 2021 at 2:41:41 PM permalink
A life preserver won't keep you from getting wet, but it will prevent you from drowning. This vaccine works the same way.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ams288
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September 1st, 2021 at 2:48:24 PM permalink
I’ll be in Vegas this weekend. Rates for Saturday night are incredibly high. It was blacked out for comps for me so I had to pay like $150 for the night at Mandalay Bay. I kept checking hoping they’d go down a little but nope, still going up.

I love that Vegas is so cheap that I consider $150 to be “incredibly high.”
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DRich
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September 1st, 2021 at 3:08:17 PM permalink
Quote: ams288



I love that Vegas is so cheap that I consider $150 to be “incredibly high.”



So true, I cringe when I go to a big city and have to get a room for $299 at a lower end place.


BTW, i heard Motel 6 is no longer $6 either.
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gordonm888
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September 1st, 2021 at 3:16:47 PM permalink
Quote: joedol

From what I've been reading that Israeli report is an outlier. Until more studies like that one are published I'm going to stick with the masses.



Dated yesterday, Aug 31, from here: Aug 31 story

"Interestingly, however, the data also shows that vaccines appear to be becoming less effective at preventing infection completely or the development of mild symptoms. The reasons are not fully understood but are likely due to the waning effect of the vaccine over time and the rise of new variants, such as the Delta variant."

No numbers in that, but the story is qualitatively the same. 90% effective against hospitalization, but small and waning effectiveness against symptomatic infections.

But we cannot convince tuttigym about the concept of EV and I suspect we can't convince joedol about this.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
gordonm888
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September 1st, 2021 at 3:26:17 PM permalink
And this CDC Aug31, 2021 science brief

"Preliminary data from the clinical trials among adults ≥18 years old suggest COVID-19 vaccination protects against symptomatic infection and may also protect against asymptomatic infection.

In the Moderna trial, among people who had received a first dose, the number of asymptomatic people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 at their second-dose appointment was approximately 67% lower among vaccinees than among placebo recipients (0.1% and 0.3%, respectively)

Efficacy of Johnson & Johnson/Janssen COVID-19 vaccine against asymptomatic infection was 74% in a subset of trial participants."

Moderna's reductions by 67% are reductions by a factor of 3x, J&J's reductions by 74% are reductions by a factor <4x. And Pfizer is reportedly the least effective of the three vaccines against reinfections. This is consistent with what I said - the reinfection rate of vaccinated people is reduced by less than a factor of 4x as compared to unvaccinated people. I am pro-vaccine, but vaccinations are unlikely to halt the perpetual reinfection of the population by the novel coronavirus. It will be with us for a long time.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
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