AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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January 25th, 2021 at 2:16:08 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Rents in downtown LA are crashing because of endless homeless encampments and crime making going outside after dark a bad idea. One complex lowered their rents from $3500/mo to $2100/mo and that's not low enough to get the broke people off the street into housing.



Lowered the rent to $2100 a month?

I honestly do not get how people in these parts of the country survive.

But to the thread, the condo/house decision comes down to what you want. In a condo you give up a garage and doing any kind of hobby that is not sitting inside the house. For some people that does not matter, for others it does. OTOH a condo you leave and lock and no worries. This is nice if you plan to be gone for a few weeks at a time.

IMHO we have a housing crash coming the next year or two. Valuations are insane. A jumbo over $409,000 was very rare 10 years ago, now I see that kind of valuation many times a day. Are enough people making over $150000 to sop up this supply?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
DRich
DRich
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January 25th, 2021 at 2:32:58 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman


IMHO we have a housing crash coming the next year or two. Valuations are insane. A jumbo over $409,000 was very rare 10 years ago, now I see that kind of valuation many times a day. Are enough people making over $150000 to sop up this supply?



Although not that many individuals are making over $150k, many couples are. I would say that the majority of couples that I know are making combined around $150k. Of course in Vegas many service workers are making over $75k (taxed minimally).
Order from chaos
TomG
TomG
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January 25th, 2021 at 2:33:38 PM permalink
Things could be a lot different in five years.

a - I do not like the idea of a condo, because the fees are like another mortgage payment that never builds equity and can hurt any appreciation. Some people do like the amenities and all the stuff they get with it.
b - Like condo v house, location is going to be personal preference. I think most retirees with money like the master planned communities on the edges of the city: https://www.greatlasvegashomes.com/las-vegas-master-planned-communities.php
Those are all just traditional suburbs, all feel roughly the same to me. Maybe someone else could tell you any differences that would make one better than the other

More central areas can have very nice, higher end residential block, right next to rundown neighborhoods. I think anyone would obviously recommend the higher end places, and recommend staying out of the rundown areas, but can be hard to just give general cross streets. Plenty of the older homes are around 1000 sq', so still in the same price range as the condos you are asking about.
DRich
DRich
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January 25th, 2021 at 2:44:10 PM permalink
Quote: TomG


More central areas can have very nice, higher end residential block, right next to rundown neighborhoods. I think anyone would obviously recommend the higher end places, and recommend staying out of the rundown areas, but can be hard to just give general cross streets. Plenty of the older homes are around 1000 sq', so still in the same price range as the condos you are asking about.



In my area of Vegas you can find an average three bedroom 1500sqft house for about $350k which is definitely up about $100k over the last 5 years.
Order from chaos
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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January 25th, 2021 at 3:07:38 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Although not that many individuals are making over $150k, many couples are. I would say that the majority of couples that I know are making combined around $150k. Of course in Vegas many service workers are making over $75k (taxed minimally).



I guess many are, but the other side is for how many the houses are debt not assets. Seeing refinances without any equity building is much like working as a dealer at a locals place and seeing the same people drop their paycheck at the tables. Meanwhile I see just what kind of house $450K+ buys. Really, I cannot see how young people in these cities can ever hope to get equity.

And that is the thing. Eventually this all has to either come crashing down or inflation has to eat away at the value of the debt.

They should better warn how hard red pilled life is.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
billryan
billryan
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January 25th, 2021 at 3:44:59 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

In my area of Vegas you can find an average three bedroom 1500sqft house for about $350k which is definitely up about $100k over the last 5 years.


Prices are high today, which means renting might be the better option.
DRich
DRich
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January 25th, 2021 at 3:47:35 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

I guess many are, but the other side is for how many the houses are debt not assets. Seeing refinances without any equity building is much like working as a dealer at a locals place and seeing the same people drop their paycheck at the tables. Meanwhile I see just what kind of house $450K+ buys. Really, I cannot see how young people in these cities can ever hope to get equity.

And that is the thing. Eventually this all has to either come crashing down or inflation has to eat away at the value of the debt.

They should better warn how hard red pilled life is.



I agree, houses are not for everyone. A good friend of mine is a union carpenter and makes a good living (about $110k). He and his wife are very happy just renting and putting all of his extra money in his annuity. Houses are not the investment that they used to be. Way too many idiots just refi and take cash out as soon as they accumulate any equity.
Order from chaos
billryan
billryan
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January 25th, 2021 at 3:49:25 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

What type of income are you referring to?

The current interest rate is essentially zero, and around negative 2% adjusted for inflation

Its gotta go back to a normal level some day but weve been at this level for over ten years. Could be another ten



Then lend me a million at 2%. If you can't get better than that, I'll happily take care of it for you. I'll even give you the first two years interest in advance the day you deliver the million.
billryan
billryan
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January 25th, 2021 at 3:58:53 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I agree, houses are not for everyone. A good friend of mine is a union carpenter and makes a good living (about $110k). He and his wife are very happy just renting and putting all of his extra money in his annuity. Houses are not the investment that they used to be. Way too many idiots just refi and take cash out as soon as they accumulate any equity.



Before the Depression, you would normally need 50% down to get a mortgage. When banks had excess houses and no buyers, they both lowered the requirements and got the Government to change the tax laws to make it easier to get one.
You have to keep in mind that electricity and indoor plumbing are relatively new and houses built without them were much cheaper to build and own. My Grandfather built our summer bungalow over a few weekends, but it had no plumbing or electricity. They used kerosene for light and I think propane for cooking. There was a community Big House that had a variation of an outhouse, communal showers and a pump that you got your cooking and drinking water from.
rxwine
rxwine
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January 25th, 2021 at 4:11:22 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

In a condo you give up a garage



My sister has a garage with her condo. (just noting)
Quasimodo? Does that name ring a bell?

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