Can Vegas recover?
Quote: mkl654321The rumors I heard was that there was going to be a beeg new "theme" casino built on that site and the site of the old El Ratso, and one idea being tossed about was "San Francisco". Not a bad idea---blow fog in there 24/7 to cool people off, hire lots of gay dealers, serve Rice-a-Roni and sourdough bread in the buffet, have a little cable car running around the perimeter of the property for people to ride...
The only hotel/casino I've heard of being proposed for the old Wet N Wild site was Crown Las Vegas. There was a proposal for "City by the Bay" on the New Frontier site as noted near the bottom of this page. The various "dreams" pages at VegasTodayandTomorrow.com have some pretty interesting things on them. I don't know how the strip will survive without the Addams Family Resort and Casino or Max Bear's Beverly Hillbillies Resort.
Quote: mkl654321Well, other Wet N' Wilds, in parts of the country that have less insane climates, and shorter summers, seem to be doing just fine. Those parks lie idle for many more months than the Vegas park did (although they wouldn't open until the second or third week of May, which I thought was completely nuts, since by then the yearly maximum temperature for OTHER Wet N' Wilds in other cities had already been exceeded).
I don't know all the factors involved. Do you?
What was the visitor flow when they were open? Locals? Tourists? How much did they pay for property taxes? What about other expenses, maintenance, etc etc? Perhaps it just wasn't profitable. Perhaps selling the land was a better choice for the owners.
Quote:If The Plan was to build a megacasino there, that would explain WNW's hasty exit, as they would have been "persuaded" to sell one way or the other.
Why put persuaded between quotes? If you ahve any evidence of improper pressure, foul play or any other unseemly action, then stop hinting and present it. Otherwise kindly stop the unfounded innuendo.
Quote: mkl654321
The rumors I heard was that there was going to be a beeg new "theme" casino built on that site and the site of the old El Ratso, and one idea being tossed about was "San Francisco". Not a bad idea---blow fog in there 24/7 to cool people off, hire lots of gay dealers, serve Rice-a-Roni and sourdough bread in the buffet, have a little cable car running around the perimeter of the property for people to ride...
Thats a great concept!I don't know everything but I know a lot.
Quote: mkl654321
The rumors I heard was that there was going to be a beeg new "theme" casino built on that site and the site of the old El Ratso, and one idea being tossed about was "San Francisco". Not a bad idea---blow fog in there 24/7 to cool people off, hire lots of gay dealers, serve Rice-a-Roni and sourdough bread in the buffet, have a little cable car running around the perimeter of the property for people to ride...
That's a great concept!!!
I apologize for the earlier post, this is my first attempt with using actual language symbols to post on a message board. I'm in clinical healthcare and really enjoy all this scientific/mathematical/business analysis of gaming.
Quote: pacomartin...the park was torn down for nothing.
You're absolutely right. There was no upside to tearing it down. As I recall, W&W was leasing the land from somebody else. The land owner wanted to get rid of W&W to lease or sell the property for another casino.
There was a banner the last summer at W&W that said something like "See you in 2006." It was rumored they were going to move somewhere else in Vegas, but obviously that never happened.
I think a great spot for a water park would be those fleabag motels across the Strip from the Mandalay Bay.
First, the park itself has to exceed by an order of magnitude what the other facilities on the strip offer, and be superior with other waterparks in the country. That requirement would draw visitors away from the other hotels and make it a destination. The facility would have to be large and the quality fantastic. That means a very large wave pool, several major thrill rides, and several pools and slides for the smaller kids. It should also offer something unique not offered anywhere else.
Second, it would have to be both kid and teen friendly as well. This would enable parents to drop their older kids off at the waterpark while they are off gambling for the day, and it would need to enable parents with young kids to stay with their kids at the park.
Third, it should be open from about April to October to accommodate the start and finish of the warm seasons. If should also be open to about midnight so that parents can go out in the evening and come back to claim their kids at the end of the night. Of course there should be cabana rentals with TVs, minibars, sodas, bar service, etc.
Perhaps the waterpark should be tied to a major chain such as MGM so that they could offer comps or discounts to the waterpark itself.
Perhaps the simple cost of water in Vegas and its ordinances might prevent such a facility to open or make it so cost prohibitive to do so.
As for a resident's waterpark, perhaps the city could build, finance, and operate something close to Red Rock.
But isn't that where the Montecito Resort & Casino is located (on the defunct TV series). All except Ed's office of course -- that was somewhere close to the Fashion Mall, I think.Quote: WizardI think a great spot for a water park would be those fleabag motels across the Strip from the Mandalay Bay.
Quote: DocBut isn't that where the Montecito Resort & Casino is located (on the defunct TV series). All except Ed's office of course -- that was somewhere close to the Fashion Mall, I think.
I don't know. I watched only one episode of that show, and couldn't stand it. As I recall James Cann's office overlooked the Bellagio, which would put it pretty far from the Mandalay Bay.
I thought the show was a reasonably entertaining TV comedy, provided you didn't try to think about it representing the real Las Vegas. Maybe it was like using NYNY as the setting for a TV show about New York City.
Quote: WizardI think a great spot for a water park would be those fleabag motels across the Strip from the Mandalay Bay.
I believe that MGM Resorts owns a lot of that land across from Mandalay Bay. It is in reserve for future development.
The site of the long vacated Key Largo Casino (across Paradise Road from Terrible's) might be a good site. It has some inexpensive casinos like Tuscany and Terribles within walking distance, and cheap long stay hotels like Candlewood. It is less than a mile from the lower price Harrah's casinos. It would be attractive to families visiting Vegas so that they would have some affordable places to stay.
Mandalay Bay and Luxor are not that inexpensive for many families.
Quote: Nareed
Why put persuaded between quotes? If you ahve any evidence of improper pressure, foul play or any other unseemly action, then stop hinting and present it. Otherwise kindly stop the unfounded innuendo.
In Vegas, land deals involving casinos, or, more precisely, land casino developers want, have a way of being resolved in favor of the casinos (as is every other dispute, legal and otherwise). WNW was a booming, successful attraction. Its owners would have to have been crazy to want to abandon ship--therefore, my not-much-of-a-stretch presumption was that they were strong-armed outta there in some way. Can I PROVE that? No, of course not--I neglected to install a hidden mike in the booth at the Peppermill where the deal was struck (darn it). But I would be willing to bet $100 to a stale Circus Circus buffet dinner roll that the deal was made the good old-fashioned Vegas way.
Quote: mkl654321Can I PROVE that? No, of course not--
The you should shut up.
Quote: NareedThe you should shut up.
I am allowed, on this forum as well as in general as a right of being an American, to voice suspicions, thoughts, inferences, reservations, speculations, musings, inferences, calculations, observations, probabilities, circumstances, reasonable doubts, posits, theories, possible explanations, and the occasional just plain whimsical thought.
Nobody, including yourself, holds YOU to the standard of "proving" everything you say. Nor should they.
Therefore, I respectfully suggest that you should take your suggestion that I "should shut up" and, metaphorically or literally, insert it into your anal cavity until it encounters complete darkness.
"Based on the newest numbers in a Review-Journal/8NewsNow survey, Nevadans don't enjoy high hopes for improvements in the state's commercial climate. Just 12 percent of respondents said they expect Nevada's economy to begin its recovery within the next year. Another third predict improvements to emerge sometime in the next two years. That leaves nearly half the state -- 48 percent -- believing it'll take up to three years or beyond for the Silver State's economy to perk back up."
That is almost 3 years of decreases, and they are still opening a casino in December (The Cosmopolitan). Prior to this recessions gaming used to increase about 0.8% a month. So the revenue has to not only get back to where it was, but it should propertly increase somewhat to account for all the new casino resorts.
I would say that three years is very optimistic.
Quote: pacomartinClark county is still setting record lows with each new month reporting. The peak was 34 months ago. Northern Nevada doesn't look like it stands a chance in competing with competition from Indian Casinos in Sacrament. It's a small market that caters to Salt Lake city, but it seems to be the only one that is growing.
That is almost 3 years of decreases, and they are still opening a casino in December (The Cosmopolitan). Prior to this recessions gaming used to increase about 0.8% a month. So the revenue has to not only get back to where it was, but it should propertly increase somewhat to account for all the new casino resorts.
I would say that three years is very optimistic.
"Northern Nevada" means at least two different markets. Reno is over 500 miles from Salt Lake City so it doesn't affect that market very much; what you're probably thinking of is Wendover, which is also hurting pretty badly.
Reno/Carson/Tahoe is a market that can survive even without the casinos, with Tahoe, skiing, etc. being major draws in their own right. The Indian casinos in the Sacramento area haven't affected Reno casinos all that much; for one thing, Cache Creek takes almost as long to get to from Sacramento as Reno does, and Thunder Valley takes quite a while as well. Both casinos, moreover, are total ripoffs, with lousy gambling.
For the above reasons, I expect Reno/Tahoe to recover quite a bit sooner than Southern Nevada. Their economy always was more diversified, which means that they have a better chance to recover even after gaming goes in the crapper. Vegas, by contrast, has no fallback position; there's absolutely no reason to go there other than to gamble.
Quote: pacomartinClark county is still setting record lows with each new month reporting. The peak was 34 months ago. Northern Nevada doesn't look like it stands a chance in competing with competition from Indian Casinos in Sacrament. It's a small market that caters to Salt Lake city, but it seems to be the only one that is growing.
That is almost 3 years of decreases, and they are still opening a casino in December (The Cosmopolitan). Prior to this recessions gaming used to increase about 0.8% a month. So the revenue has to not only get back to where it was, but it should propertly increase somewhat to account for all the new casino resorts.
I would say that three years is very optimistic.
Here's an article that came out today. Doesn't sound good.
http://www.startribune.com/nation/104212478.html?elr=KArks:DCiUMEaPc:UiacyKUUr
Is that the Golden Nugget in the interior shot?
1. Caesar's Palace is done. For starters, they can't afford to replace their roulette readerboards, The place looks run down. I've also heard rumors of what could be considered "bad faith" in the past with high rollers money. Add to the mix the Terrance Watanabe scam and nobody trusts them with a nickel deposited in the cage. Caesar's should be considered a night club, not a casino.
2. The MGM. The City is devouring the MGM. Add to the mix bad customer service and unfriendly dealers/pit and you've got a bad blend. Most of the table games are now closed during the week in an effort to slow the bleeding. The bright side, they have "KAW".
-Keyser
Quote: KeyserMost of the table games are now closed during the week in an effort to slow the bleeding.
-Keyser
How many are open at night during the week. They used to have 5 roulette tables open in the afternoon during the week.
The place is in trouble, and the staff attitude definitely shows it. I'd fire half of them and send the other half back to focus group for customer service training.
Quote: KeyserDuring the week, MGM will usually only have one pit open during the day. It's the pit just outside of the night club.
The place is in trouble, and the staff attitude definitely shows it. I'd fire half of them and send the other half back to focus group for customer service training.
At night, during the week, they have one pit open in that huge casino?
Apparently there was a now-bankrupt restaurant named Beso somewhere in City Center. Eva Longoria was the owner but she spent very little on publicity for the restaurant and it was physically buried somewhere ... so I guess officially Beso is now the first casualty of City Center.
Note: Eva Longoria is an actress who regularly appeared on a tv show entitled Desperate Housewives.
Massive entertainment projects, themed slots, game variations, chips no longer good as money, counter chasing, stingy VP payouts and 6:5 BJ - these and other things make it all too obvious that casinos are about offering entertainment. When a visitor realizes it clearly, he begins to treats his gambling bankroll as entertainment fare, not an investment in luck. That leads to people bringing small bankrolls, going for the lowest-limit tables and machines, and just not actually gambling.
There might indeed be merit to this. Vegas has always been more hype than reality but the scarcity of real gamblers does mean that each visitor brings a lower amount of money with him than used to be common in Vegas.Quote: P90it's not the lack of gimmicks (indoor ski resorts etc) that's killing Vegas, but, on the contrary, overreliance on gimmicks.
all too obvious that casinos are about offering entertainment. When a visitor realizes it clearly, he begins to treats his gambling bankroll as entertainment fare, not an investment in luck.
Pool parties, night clubs, Bottle Service, .... everything except gambling.
Quote: FleaStiffThere might indeed be merit to this. Vegas has always been more hype than reality but the scarcity of real gamblers does mean that each visitor brings a lower amount of money with him than used to be common in Vegas.
Pool parties, night clubs, Bottle Service, .... everything except gambling.
I read in the R-J recently that visitation was only slightly down, but amount spent per person was SHARPLY down---by about 40%. So people are enjoying the sizzle but not buying the steak. Makes sense--offer increasingly crappy gambling and people will gradually stop gambling as much. Vegas casinos' policy of tightening up has failed in much the same way and for much the same reason as tax increases often DECREASE total tax revenue.
Benny Binion cleaned up the sawdust and peanut shells, gave free drinks and good steaks ... but he never lost focus on a good gamble.
Now we have all the MBA types bring in hordes of twenty somethings and thirty somethings who drink and dance and swim (well, you know...stand around in the pool area in a revealing suit until hooking up with just about anything unless you happen to have learned their last name, then they are off limits). All this increases the sale of alcohol, tanning lotion and various personal hygiene products, but it doesn't seem to do much for the craps tables. Hordes of clubbers getting reamed for five hundred dollar tips in a nightclub and none of them ever go into the casino and leave even a lousy five dollar tip.
Meanwhile, in order to get the little old ladies with pension and social security checks, the casinos provide Bingo, Keno, Buses, Drugstores, Mobility Devices, as well as Gin. And all the casinos really want as far as new blood is adults who will willingly press a little red button for a decade or so before they need the free Geritol.
Quote: OneAngryDwarfThe next logical question then...why haven't the casinos recognized this yet? Say what you will about Harrah's and MGM, but they didn't become the largest casino operators in the world by making bad management decisions. So why would they continue to stick with policies that don't work...or are they actually waiting for things to get even WORSE?
Any praise of Harrah's would have to be tempered by the realization that their savvy business practices have gotten them into a $31 billion (the last time I checked) debt hole, and driven the company to the verge of bankruptcy/hostile takeover. I view this as a DIRECT result of their tighten-everything-until-it-squeaks policies. Why haven't they realized this? Because the bright young bushy-tailed MBAs fresh out of grad school are blaming the company's nosedive on the recession. Anything rather than admit that drastically raising the price of all your products might not be the best way to react to a diminishing customer base. A guy running a hot dog cart knows this, but the hot dogs running Harrah's apparently don't.
Quote: OneAngryDwarfThe next logical question then...why haven't the casinos recognized this yet? Say what you will about Harrah's and MGM, but they didn't become the largest casino operators in the world by making bad management decisions. So why would they continue to stick with policies that don't work...or are they actually waiting for things to get even WORSE?
Perhaps because their own analyses of the situation indicate a different problem.
Of curse, you know the difference between an actuary and an accountant? When asked "How much is 2+2," the actuary says "four." The accountant says "How much do you want it to be?" The same goes on in management all the time.
And perhaps the problem is different.
Is 31 Billion "Too Big To Fail"? Or can another iPO be scheduled and some corporate paper issued to whip debt into assets?Quote: mkl654321Any praise of Harrah's would have to be tempered by the realization that their savvy business practices have gotten them into a $31 billion (the last time I checked) debt hole, and driven the company to the verge of bankruptcy/hostile takeover.
The casinos are making money. Its like a drug dealer raising his prices: what are his customers going to do but pay the new price?
Quote: OneAngryDwarfThe next logical question then...why haven't the casinos recognized this yet? Say what you will about Harrah's and MGM, but they didn't become the largest casino operators in the world by making bad management decisions. So why would they continue to stick with policies that don't work...or are they actually waiting for things to get even WORSE?
Perhaps it's the classic short term vs long term issue. Rejuvenating the gambling culture, making people come to win and bet more than spare change, creating new gamblers all take time, as does suppressing this culture. Offering more entertainment, increasing the hold percentage at tables and cutting down on comps brings in visible net profit this year, or outright this quarter.
Quote: FleaStiffIs 31 Billion "Too Big To Fail"? Or can another iPO be scheduled and some corporate paper issued to whip debt into assets?
The casinos are making money. Its like a drug dealer raising his prices: what are his customers going to do but pay the new price?
The customers can go elsewhere. That's why an essential, but failed component of Harrah's strategy was to be the only pusher on the block. They did succeed in dominating the mid-Strip, and inserting their members into virtually every casino jurisdiction/orifice in the U.S., but that was done at the cost of paying too much (assuming too much debt) for many properties that weren't performing very well. They thought that all they had to do was put up a big "HARRAH'S" sign and people would come flocking in.
The "too big to fail" analogy is valid, though, because Harrah's creditors will be left holding a very empty bag if Harrah's goes under. Therefore, they have been concocting schemes for nigh unto two years now, trying to find some way to juggle the books and pretend that Harrah's could once again be a viable entity. A LOT of the dithering and prevarication has been in the hope that the economy would recover and that Harrah's could, as a result, at least service its debt. That appears to be sorta kinda happening right now, but not nearly fast enough or largely enough to satisfy Harrah's creditors.
Quote: KeyserThe big casinos that are losing high rollers and that are crashing fast are:
2. The MGM. The City is devouring the MGM. Add to the mix bad customer service and unfriendly dealers/pit and you've got a bad blend. Most of the table games are now closed during the week in an effort to slow the bleeding. The bright side, they have "KAW".
-Keyser
MGM Grand can't seem to stop bleeding. Even though gaming revenue has levelled off on the strip the MGM Grand sets a new low with every quarter. For 3rd quarter pf 2010 total revenue was $232 million, down from $266m the previous year.
You can't win if you don't play the game ... and the casino can't take its vig if its not offering the game. What is the Hold on a closed table? How many members of their Player's Club will be redeeming points that were never earned because the pit was closed to save money?Quote: KeyserDuring the week, MGM will usually only have one pit open during the day. It's the pit just outside of the night club.
The place is in trouble, and the staff attitude definitely shows it.
Las Vegas Region (in millions), Year-to-Date
Q3 2010 Q3 2009
Casino Revenues: $1,127.5 $1,113.5
Net Revenues: $2,108.1 $2,048.8
In the notes to the filing, you can see that Planet Hollywood's Net Revenues was $159.2 million year to date so in fact, Las Vegas revenue is down about 4.9 percent. When you look at the other region's revenues, Atlantic City is down 5 percent, Louisiana/Mississippi is down 5.3 percent, Iowa/Missouri is down 2.9 percent, Illinois/Indiana is down 2.1 percent, while managed/international is up 3.4 percent.
Caesar's debt is 19.46 billion with only 100.3 million due, in 2013.
The keys to bankruptcy is the unwillingness of a lender to lend a company money because its balance sheet doesn't have assets to support the loan and the inability for the company to pay down its debts.
Because casinos are essentially cash generating machines, it is unlikely that Caesars nor MGM for that matter is going anywhere soon. Both companies are able to secure financing and are able to generate enough money to pay their loans. They've survived the downturns for now and I don't think the majors are going anywhere. Wynn and Sands are doing quite well due to the operations in Macau.
On the other hand Caesars is paying 1.5 billion in interest payments and is only generating 1 billion in cash. The creditors are getting restless...
Quote: boymimboI don't know where you're getting the number from. From Caesar's 10-Q filing in Q3 last year:
Las Vegas Region (in millions), Year-to-Date
Q3 2010 Q3 2009
Casino Revenues: $1,127.5 $1,113.5
Net Revenues: $2,108.1 $2,048.8
I got them from page 26 and 27 of this news release, http://investor.harrahs.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=84772&p=irol-news&nyo=1 .
However, I am willing to retract them since your numbers seem more accurate. It takes a while to read all those tables.
"Las Vegas Region properties include Bally's Las Vegas, Bill's Gamblin' Hall & Saloon, Caesars Palace, Imperial Palace, and Planet Hollywood." - from page 6.
The numbers I have are from Harrah's Entertainment (page 20 - 21):
"Las Vegas Region properties include Bally's Las Vegas, Bill's Gamblin' Hall & Saloon, Caesars Palace, Flamingo Las Vegas, Harrah's Las Vegas, Imperial Palace, Paris, Planet Hollywood and Rio." - from Page 5.
Quote: boymimbo"Las Vegas Region properties include Bally's Las Vegas, Bill's Gamblin' Hall & Saloon, Caesars Palace, Flamingo Las Vegas, Harrah's Las Vegas, Imperial Palace, Paris, Planet Hollywood and Rio." - from Page 5.
Isn't Bally's under the Paris license?
Quote: SanchoPanzaQuote: boymimbo"Las Vegas Region properties include Bally's Las Vegas, Bill's Gamblin' Hall & Saloon, Caesars Palace, Flamingo Las Vegas, Harrah's Las Vegas, Imperial Palace, Paris, Planet Hollywood and Rio." - from Page 5.
Isn't Bally's under the Paris license?
Bally's/Paris did operate under the same license for many years, but they were seperated a few years ago. At the same time Circus Circus and Slots A' Fun were combined into one license after decades. But that only affects the reports made by the Gaming Comission. Financial reports tend to consider all the Vegas casinos as one entity.
The main point for this overarching thread is that the strip gaming revenue has recovered slightly from it's low in October 2009, but the two largest companies Ceasar's and MGM Resorts are still losing more and more money every single quarter. Revenues are down, and profits are lower.
Gaming Revenue (12 months ending
| Last Month of 12 | Tables | Poker | Slots |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2009 | $2,575,812 | $85,835 | $2,824,471 |
| November 2010 | $2,882,761 | $82,174 | $2,813,130 |
So the $300m increase in table games combined with slight dip in poker and slots is not enough to even level out revenue for these two major companies. The modest turnaround is being shared mostly by Sands and Wynn . These two companies need it the least, as their Vegas revenues are increasingly becoming a minority percentage of the company.
Quote: SanchoPanzaIsn't Bally's under the Paris license?
Bally's/Paris did operate under the same license for many years, but they were seperated a few years ago. At the same time Circus Circus and Slots A' Fun were combined into one license after decades. But that only affects the reports made by the Gaming Comission. Financial reports tend to consider all the Vegas casinos as one entity.
The main point for this overarching thread is that the strip gaming revenue has recovered slightly from it's low in October 2009, but the two largest companies Ceasar's and MGM Resorts are still losing more and more money every single quarter. Revenues are down, and profits are lower.
Gaming Revenue (12 months ending ...
| Last Month of 12 months | Tables | Poker | Slots |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2009 | $2,575,812 | $85,835 | $2,824,471 |
| November 2010 | $2,882,761 | $82,174 | $2,813,130 |
So the $300m increase in table games combined with slight dip in poker and slots is not enough to even level out revenue for these two major companies. The modest turnaround is being shared mostly by Sands and Wynn . These two companies need it the least, as their Vegas revenues are increasingly becoming a very minority percentage of the corporate revenues.
What is even worse is that the baccarat on the Vegas Strip has gone up $342M while the rest of the table games have gone DOWN $35m. There is some indications in Sands Quarterly Reports that the corporation is not trying to bring the big gamers to Las Vegas now, settling on flying them to Singapore where tax rates are much lower than Macau. It could be that the next Chinese New Year's (SO CRITICAL TO THE TURNAROUND IN 2010) will be a bust in Las Vegas.
Sands is now larger than MGM Resorts and is closing in on Ceasars.
Quote: JIMMYFOCKERVegas is poised for another fabulous run.
Based on?
