pacomartin
pacomartin
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March 12th, 2010 at 10:17:06 AM permalink


Baccarat became a higher revenue generator than blackjack in the fall of 2009,
now it is also a higher revenue generator than the other games combined
(including sports and race).
It may break $1 billion by Feb or March (moving 12 month average) with Chinese New Year's.

Baccarat is now clearly the biggest moneymaking game on the Las Vegas strip (other than slots).
More importantly Baccarat keeps going up while everything else is on the way down.

I think that this change is of long term signifigance.

Will this mean a changing face of Las Vegas as the corporations forget about
increasing their mass visitation numbers and concentrate on the smaller number
of well heeled (probably Asian) baccarat players?

Will the blackjack and slots play ever come back to it's peak? Blackjack is back to 1997 levels.

Headline in Gaming Today says Don't put it all on the recession
by which to say casino revenue is still dropping worse than to be expected
by the already bad general economic indicators.

Slots are facing increasing competition from on-line betting,
and many casino games are now available in multiple places around the country.

High baccarat betting, fancy hotel rooms and perks, fights and shows,
are still the ultimate Vegas experience to those people with money.

Combined with the collapse of the bottom of the market (Circus circus, downtown hotel towers closing, Sahara closing hotel towers)
I think that Vegas is permanently changing.
RonC
RonC
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March 12th, 2010 at 12:17:48 PM permalink
While one game may bring in the most whales, I think the corporations still need the money from the rest of us who frequent Vegas to be profitable. It isn't totally the recession causing the problem...some of it is attitude. When you feel like the folks you deal with at a casino/hotel give you an attitude you don't like, it becomes much more tempting to head to a closer casino. Why fly to Vegas unless Vegas is special? We play in Lake Charles, LA every few months but love heading out for the Vegas experience. If the Vegas experience is degraded too much, we'll just do our gambling locally.

I think Vegas might be a bit cocky...they were the only game in town. Then they got some competition. Now more and more states think gambling is the ticket to prosperity so more casinos choices are available. We'll see how they respond over time...
DorothyGale
DorothyGale
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March 12th, 2010 at 12:27:06 PM permalink
Excellent, many thanks.

Nice job on the chart graphic.

--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
pacomartin
pacomartin
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March 12th, 2010 at 12:37:41 PM permalink
I would say that the oldest least desirable areas will just completely collapse.
Reno downtown, Lake Tahoe, downtown Las Vegas,
North strip (Circus circus, Stratosphere, Riviera, Sahara), and
the three southern boardwalk casinos in Atlantic City as examples.

But I can't say that with certainty as there are counterplays in all markets.
Carl Icahn in Fountainbleau, and Tropicana AC, and
Tilman Fertita Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas.

They are closing the slot clubs at Lake Tahoe, and some of the smaller places in Reno.
boymimbo
boymimbo
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March 12th, 2010 at 5:43:44 PM permalink
It's fascinating to me that such a low house advantage game with little skill is bringing on so much revenue.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Croupier
Croupier
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March 12th, 2010 at 9:20:03 PM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

It's fascinating to me that such a low house advantage game with little skill is bringing on so much revenue.



I think you have answered your own question. It could be bringing on the revenue Because its a low house edge game that takes little to no skill. The big (possibly asian) playeres love it, so plenty of moolah to throw at it.

Bear in mind that this is just revenue, and doesnt show the profit. Thats what I would be interested in, a profit vs revenue graph.

Great Graph you have tho! I am visually impressed.
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pacomartin
pacomartin
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March 12th, 2010 at 9:53:28 PM permalink
This is gaming revenue, so current baccarat revenue is $0.982 billion at 11.51% win
rate or $8.535 billion played over the year ending 31 January 2010.

Profit for baccarat is not formally calculated vs profit from blackjack or slots.
However, logically it takes 1383 tables to produce that blackjack
revenue on the graph vs 208 baccarat tables, so the expenses must be much higher.

Departmental revenue is 43% games, 2% poker, and 55% slots.
Casino Department expenses are 68.6%. Add all the departments (rooms, casino, food, beverage,entertainment) and then you must subtract general and administrative costs
(front office) which leaves operating revenue and finally profit.

The Las Vegas strip reported a loss of a massive 30% last year
as it wrote down all sorts of costs.

I'm glad you like the graph, since I did about 30 versions.

The game has been the same for 100 years, but the last year's revenue shows you how
much the casinos are pursuing this gambler.

My question is if this is the only game on the increase,
what motivation does MGM MIRAGE to keep properties like Circus Circus going that
only bring 0.69% of their total operating income.
Conventional wisdom is that if CC only makes $1 it is worth operating because it
keeps the land available for future expansion. But if the meat and potatoes of
gambling keeps dropping like a rock, will it ever make sense to build a new
multibillion dollar gaming resort that does not focus on baccarat.
Last edited by: pacomartin on Mar 13, 2010
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