Flight Costs Gamble

OK Folks,

I've been to Las Vegas nine times now and here is roughly what I've paid for a one-way airfare-only ticket to Las Vegas:

Number of times	Price Paid
1	$299
2	$249
3	$199
2	$149
1	$99

Now here is my question. At the end of August, I could have booked flights for $218 but I didn't. Given the history above, would you have waited like I did or gone ahead and booked at $218?

How would you analyze the problem? How much is it worth to wait for a chance at a better flight cost?

--helpmespock

For my local airline 5-6 weeks out seems to be the sweet spot for booking midweek flights. Weekend flights for me are usually somewhat planned far in advance and I usually don't gamble much when I have set plans in place. Personally I would book at $218 if the whole trip is set and the dates are not flexible

For one, it depends on the time frame these previous 9 flights were over. If it was over 10 years, then $218 would probably be a steal. All 9 prices over the last year, not so much. And personally for me it would also depend on lodging cost but maybe you're getting that comped...

Oh to add what slang said, I probably book this if you have any lack of flexibility, $218 is only $19 above average.

This is why I love southwest: if your flight goes down, they'll issue you a credit for the difference, with no change fee.

Quote: dlevinelaw

This is why I love southwest: if your flight goes down, they'll issue you a credit for the difference, with no change fee.

Orbitz says they do this as well and offers airlines that can get me to Vegas ~$150 cheaper usually. Somehow I got to fly SWA once for $220, but it's usually $440 roundtrip. I've never got a credit for the difference though, I guess I've always booked at the cheapest amount.

Quote: helpmespock

I've been to Las Vegas nine times now and here is roughly what I've paid for a one-way airfare-only ticket to Las Vegas:

Why would you only buy a one way ticket?

Planning to jog back home, are you, bunkie?

I rarely even check southwest anymore unless I know for a fact I'm going to have two bags. Their prices are almost always noticeably higher than any of the travel service companies.

Quote: ahiromu

I rarely even check southwest anymore unless I know for a fact I'm going to have two bags. Their prices are almost always noticeably higher than any of the travel service companies.

SouthWest made a big deal about coming to Long Island's MacArthur Airport in beautiful Ronkonkoma, NY. For a few years, they had a Non-Stop flight to Las Vegas that was always full whenever I was on it and the fare was usually better than any of their competitors at JFK (JetBlue, VirginAmerica). I just checked flights to Las Vegas from Long Island on SouthWest and it's one or two stops and way over the price that I can get from JFK. I'll wait a week until booling the flight. Maybe SouthWest will come down in price.

A trick I've learned about when to book flights: Go directly to the airline's website and start the process. Some of them allow you to pick your seat assignment. If the flight is empty and you have tomes of seats from which to pick, it's too early. Wait for the sale.

Quote: s2dbaker

A trick I've learned about when to book flights: Go directly to the airline's website and start the process. Some of them allow you to pick your seat assignment. If the flight is empty and you have tomes of seats from which to pick, it's too early. Wait for the sale.

This is good advice. Many airlines use a reserve pricing model, where some % of the seats, say 70%, for a standard discount price. If those seats are all sold, they increase the price to a standard premium price to maximize revenue on the rest. If they are not all sold, with some number of weeks to go, the tickets go on sale.

Knowing how many seats are left on a plane is a very good indicator of how good a deal your ticket is.

"Tomes"? I meant "tons". Where the heck did I pull "tomes" from? I picked a bad day to quit huffing paint!

Quote: tringlomane

For one, it depends on the time frame these previous 9 flights were over. If it was over 10 years, then $218 would probably be a steal. All 9 prices over the last year, not so much. And personally for me it would also depend on lodging cost but maybe you're getting that comped...

Oh to add what slang said, I probably book this if you have any lack of flexibility, $218 is only $19 above average.

This is over years. My wife is a teacher and our Las Vegas trip is always at our March break which is usually the second week in March so we've got no flexability.

Typically we're flying Westjet out of Toronto, Ontario but a couple of those deals were with Air Canada. I don't think either airline offers a credit if the price of a flight goes down.

I usually wait until end of November/beginning of December to book the flights, but last year the prices never dipped at that time and we ended up flying out of London which is about 25 minutes further away by car and they were red eye.

To answer MrV. we don't walk home, but typically the price is the same on the flight back. Although not this year -- the price has shot up to $280 out of Toronto, but $235 coming back.

I figure I'm stuck now and I'll hope that the price drops again sometime soon.

I don't know if Westjet will let you check the seat assignments without committing money, but I'll look into that. On Canadian flights, you typically don't book your seat until 24 hours before the flight. You can pay a fee per seat per flight to reserve the seat when you book, but I assume that not everyone would want to pay so you might not get accurate information from that seat checking trick.

--Ian

It really depends on the airline. Historically, we've found the fares on Delta to be lower in advance and USAir to be lower last-minute. It's like playing chicken sometimes. If we're travelling with the family we book seats in advance but if it's just me or my husband we wait it out for a cheap seat. I've never flown to Canada, though--only driven.

Most of the large airfare sites show price trend data. I know Kayak does. It will keep track of the price of a certain ticket for you.

Is your action at the casino sufficient to make you of interest to any organized Junket flights or to casino comping your airfare? That is the only thing I can think of that would free you from the fluctuations in airline fares.

Kayak had, and may still have, a one-button Interest in Gambling category wherein it automatically shows you ticket price data to major US gambling destinations.

Bing.com/travel does this.
Put in the dates and flights etc and it will recommend whether you should book now or wait. I find southwest to have good prices when flying from my home area. The trick is to get on their email spam list as well. I get emails all the time from them with $40 off coupons, 25% off etc.... If you go to the website you would get those deals as well but the email lets you know it is happening or about to happen.

Quote: s2dbaker

SouthWest made a big deal about coming to Long Island's MacArthur Airport in beautiful Ronkonkoma, NY. For a few years, they had a Non-Stop flight to Las Vegas that was always full whenever I was on it and the fare was usually better than any of their competitors at JFK (JetBlue, VirginAmerica). I just checked flights to Las Vegas from Long Island on SouthWest and it's one or two stops and way over the price that I can get from JFK. I'll wait a week until booling the flight. Maybe SouthWest will come down in price.

We use to love to fly non-stop. 5 times a day from Islip on LI. Then it went to 1 flight a day, which I could live with, but alas that has come to an end and now a 5 1/2 hour flight from LI takes 7-9 hours on Southwest. Needless to say, I spend extra time getting to JFK and Jetblue.

Whoever said 5-6 weeks is the sweet spot is dead on. That's the best time, and check day to day as these airfares are very fluid. I saw JFK-LAS non stop for $186, waited two days and it was $275, then 3 days later it was $151, so you must check often.

With Jetblue, you might want to check their Vacation packages. This past June I needed to make arrangements, and even though I get comped at Bally's for my entire stay, it was cheaper to get a package for air/hotel(ballys) as it was $200 cheaper than booking 2 round trip airfares for my wife and I. Doesn't always work out that way but it does pay to check sometimes. We just took an upgrade on the room when we got there.