Blackjack vs Baccarat vs x (?) for one very high bet.

Hello,

In the scenario where one decides to make an extremely high bet, such as 100k+, where should they play it? The banker bet at Baccarat? Blackjack (using basic strategy, except obviously by making one bet, doubling/splitting would not be possible)? Or somewhere else?

Quote: Null

Hello,

In the scenario where one decides to make an extremely high bet, such as 100k+, where should they play it? The banker bet at Baccarat? Blackjack (using basic strategy, except obviously by making one bet, doubling/splitting would not be possible)? Or somewhere else?

Banker bet only yields 95K, so if your goal was to 'double up' then a second bet would be required. Blackjack is definitely out, because if you don't have enough money to split or double you are NOT playing basic strategy. I believe the don't pass bet is the best single 'double up' bet in the regular casino.

Definitely depends on what your goal is. $1000 on pass or don't pass with 100x odds is probably the way to go.

Quote: SOOPOO

Banker bet only yields 95K, so if your goal was to 'double up' then a second bet would be required. Blackjack is definitely out, because if you don't have enough money to split or double you are NOT playing basic strategy. I believe the don't pass bet is the best single 'double up' bet in the regular casino.

Thank you for the correction about how it is not basic strategy. I guess to rephrase it, from playing blackjack (being able to split/double for Basic strategy, not counting), banker in baccarat, and the don't pass bet (I am not familiar with craps; I am currently making myself familiar with it), are they all relatively close in house edge? What makes one more favorable for a high double up or go broke play?

Quote: Null

Thank you for the correction about how it is not basic strategy. I guess to rephrase it, from playing blackjack (being able to split/double for Basic strategy, not counting), banker in baccarat, and the don't pass bet (I am not familiar with craps; I am currently making myself familiar with it), are they all relatively close in house edge? What makes one more favorable for a high double up or go broke play?

If you eliminate the advantages of doubling down, splitting, and 3:2 payout from a blackjack, you win far fewer than 50% of the total hands played at blackjack. So house edge in BJ if you are not taking advantage of doubling, splitting, and the bonud for BJ is probably 7 or 8 %. Banker in baccarat is not an even money bet. You pay a 5% commission on your win. So although banker will win slightly more than 50% of the time, you are not actually doubling up. Either the pass line, or don't pass bet, give abouta 1 1/2 % edge to the house. The don't pass is trivially better. The best bet would be the one with the highest chance for success. Since banker at baccarat requires a second bet to double up it is by definition not a single bet to double up. So, as i answered earlier, I believe that the don't pass bet has the lowest house edge of the 'double up' type bets.

Well if you put 100k on the banker in baccarat and win and get 95k well damn thats more than i make in a year.. RUN RUN RUN AWAY and dont look back who cares if you didnt quite double up. can be said the same for pow gwai. take the money and run

Assuming you're going to continue if there's a tie I think (using the figures on the site and some back of cigarette packet calcs)

Bacarrat "Player" Win=446247 Lose=458597 Ignore Ties --> 98.635% payback
Craps Dont Win=949 Lose=976 Ignore Ties --> 98.597% payback
Roulette UK Even Win=18 Lose=18 Lose 1/2=1 --> 98.649%
(The problem here is you have to leave the money running after a Lose 1/2, so the end percentage is less.)

It's close but Baccarat seems slightly better (also you don't get to hate the shooter if he causes you to lose!).

As easier way to think it is imagine you bet both sides and see how many turns it takes to lose one unit (ignoring Ties).
1 in 74: Roulette loses 1 every 37 spins (74 bets) (when zero comes up both bets lose 1/2.)
Craps loses about 1 every 36 throws (72 bets) (when Aces comes up the Pass loses, all other times the Pass or Don't Pass pay each other).
Bacarrat loses about 1 every 40 hands (80 bets) (i.e. if you bet both sides 40 times [there was a result] (total bet 80), you'd eventually lose commission of 5% just over 20 times when the banker wins = 1 bet).

Haha Kauboj, I feel the same way.

Well, I'll definitely listen to the numbers; thanks for the input.

Quote: Null

Hello,

In the scenario where one decides to make an extremely high bet, such as 100k+, where should they play it? The banker bet at Baccarat? Blackjack (using basic strategy, except obviously by making one bet, doubling/splitting would not be possible)? Or somewhere else?

First, you cannot walk in off the street and bet $100k, at least in any casino in Vegas. The posted max at baccarat in large casinos is $20,000. If you have a large bankroll ($500k+) they'll let you go higher than that, but you'll never be allowed to go higher than the posted max in the scenario you are discussing. The answer to your question is the Banker bet on baccarat. While blackjack has a much lower edge, without a bankroll of 8x your bet (to cover the possibility of splits and doubles) you are playing at a huge disadvantage. An added benefit of the banker bet for a one-shot wager is that it is one of the only bets that wins more often than it loses, which is exactly what you want in this scenario. Of course, you'll pay a 5% commission for the privilege, but you only pay it if you win.

Quote: thefish2010

First, you cannot walk in off the street and bet $100k, at least in any casino in Vegas. The posted max at baccarat in large casinos is $20,000. If you have a large bankroll ($500k+) they'll let you go higher than that, but you'll never be allowed to go higher than the posted max in the scenario you are discussing.

For what it's worth, I was in Caesars Windsor this weekend and their posted max on the main floor is $50,000, even on craps. That is higher than anything I've seen in Vegas. Keep in mind this wasn't even high limit.

Quote: teddys

For what it's worth, I was in Caesars Windsor this weekend and their posted max on the main floor is $50,000, even on craps. That is higher than anything I've seen in Vegas. Keep in mind this wasn't even high limit.

As I said, I can only speak about Vegas. The highest posted max at most of the major Vegas casinos (Aria, Bellagio, Wynn, etc) for baccarat is $20k, and for other games they are lower (blackjack is $10k in high limit, and I dont play craps so I couldn't say what they are there). That's interesting that they would have such high limits in Canada.

Here are their limits at Caesars Windsor. Kind of bizarre that they allow high action on craps and only have a $15k max on baccarat.

Many casinos will let you bet higher - with advance notice.

Hell, with enough advance notice, and the chance to get media coverage, it shouldn't be a problem at all.


As far as what to bet, I'd say one of the even money bets on roulette - but on a single zero wheel where they have the "En Prison" rule.

According to https://wizardofodds.com/games/roulette/

Quote:

Best in Nevada: The Bellegio, Mandalay Bay, MGM Grand, Mirage, Rio, and Wynn all have European roulette, with a house edge of 1.35%. Usually such wheels are in the high-limit rooms, but the MGM and Mirage also have a European wheel in the main casino at a $25 minimum.

While, personally, I prefer craps over roulette, I'd much rather have it decided by someone else, but not want to put that much pressure on another player. So Roulette it is. Another advantage it that as long as the result is not zero, you get your result in one spin. No prolonged nail-biting.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Many casinos will let you bet higher - with advance notice.

Hell, with enough advance notice, and the chance to get media coverage, it shouldn't be a problem at all.


As far as what to bet, I'd say one of the even money bets on roulette - but on a single zero wheel where they have the "En Prison" rule.

According to https://wizardofodds.com/games/roulette/

Quote:

Best in Nevada: The Bellegio, Mandalay Bay, MGM Grand, Mirage, Rio, and Wynn all have European roulette, with a house edge of 1.35%. Usually such wheels are in the high-limit rooms, but the MGM and Mirage also have a European wheel in the main casino at a $25 minimum.

While, personally, I prefer craps over roulette, I'd much rather have it decided by someone else, but not want to put that much pressure on another player. So Roulette it is. Another advantage it that as long as the result is not zero, you get your result in one spin. No prolonged nail-biting.

Re: limits, in Vegas you won't find many places willing to go above their posted maximums unless you have at least 20 bets at that maximum that you are willing to put up as front money or that you have available on your credit line. They just won't do it unless you have a substantial bankroll. About 10 years ago, Howard Stern was trying to do a $100k one-time blackjack bet live on the radio for a woman that was struggling financially, and he had a very difficult time finding someone to take the bet. Eventually the Hard Rock agreed, but he was turned down by every major strip casino.

Roulette would be a very bad idea for a one-time bet when compared to baccarat. Again, you have a greater chance of winning the banker bet on baccarat than you have of losing. That is simply not the case with any bet on a roulette table.

Wow fish, it sounds like you really know your stuff! Not only does your theory totally not fly in the face of logic and reason, and not only is it totally not called into question by the prevalence of high limit bets elsewhere, but there's TOTALLY not documented evidence of much higher one-time wagers in Vegas.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/04/12/national/main611356.shtml

Oh wait...

I can understand strip casinos turning down a bet involving someone who is a pauper. Its bad publicity and would just draw an endless supply of losers who would bawl if they lost and leave if they won. What would the casino gain from that?

Casinos if they know you will usually be willing to raise limits. If they only know what you've deposited at the cage, they are inclined to be a bit more restrictive.

Benny Binion ofcourse just want to see the money plunked down on the line and didn't care who you were.

Quote: sunrise089

Wow fish, it sounds like you really know your stuff! Not only does your theory totally not fly in the face of logic and reason, and not only is it totally not called into question by the prevalence of high limit bets elsewhere, but there's TOTALLY not documented evidence of much higher one-time wagers in Vegas.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/04/12/national/main611356.shtml

Oh wait...

From the article you posted...."Norm Clarke, a columnist for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, reported that the bet was no sure thing. Negotiations to place the wager at the Hard Rock Hotel broke down Saturday night, and the Sky TV crew that accompanied the gambler rewrote the script to fit a new theme: "The Bet Las Vegas Wouldn't Take.""

Of course there are exceptions to every rule...some casinos that are desperate for publicity might take a single large bet if there was some promotion associated with it. That is NOT the situation the OP described. All I can tell you is, walk into any casino and try to put $100K down on any bet of your choice without a camera crew, or even with a camera crew at most places. You will almost certainly be turned down.

There are people who are allowed to play up to $300,000 per hand on Baccarat in Vegas. For their biggest customers, Bellagio has an aggregate bet limit (the sum of all bets by all players at the table on a single hand of Baccarat) of $450,000. However, you must have a credit line of at least $5 million before they will let you play at these levels. They do not simply let you walk in as unknown player with only enough money for one bet and bet those amounts. If you think so, you've watched too many episodes of Las Vegas on TNT.

that would be 99x behind the 1x.
If the commission doesn;t bother you Banker at Baccarat, for variance, Pai Gow Poker, for a pure one shot deal 100k on the Pass line.