Match play on Baccarat
September 6th, 2011 at 11:09:45 PM
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Yesterday, a cardroom (as they do on any Monday or Friday when you play rated) gave me a match play coupon. Mine was for $5-75. From reading the Wizard's page on various "special" chips, I've determined that the player bet in Baccarat was the best game to play these particular match plays on. Oddly enough, the cardroom doesn't let me play it on the Banker bet (and certainly not the tie). Why would they prefer that I play it on the bet that is higher EV for me? Are they just bad at math?
Despite this, I usually just bet it on blackjack since that's the table I'm already sitting at, and I think that I'll look too much like an AP if I spend hours at the BJ table and then move over to the Baccarat table just for my match plays.
Thoughts?
Despite this, I usually just bet it on blackjack since that's the table I'm already sitting at, and I think that I'll look too much like an AP if I spend hours at the BJ table and then move over to the Baccarat table just for my match plays.
Thoughts?
September 6th, 2011 at 11:18:06 PM
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Player loses more frequently than Banker does.
September 7th, 2011 at 3:18:07 AM
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They probably don't want you to play it on banker because there is a commission on banker wins and that confuses them.
September 7th, 2011 at 5:19:21 PM
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Quote: heatherPlayer loses more frequently than Banker does.
True. However, because the win is bigger the player can expect more on the player bet than the banker bet, as follows:
Per the wizard's Baccarat page for 8 decks (not actually sure if it's 8 or 6 at the place I was playing--the effect on the edge is negligible):
Banker wins: 0.458597
Player wins: 0.446247
Tie: 0.095156
If I bet on the Banker, I have a 45.8597% chance of winning $75 + an extra $75, less a 5% commission = .458597 x 150 x (1-.05) = $65.35. I also have a 44.6247% chance of losing $75 = .446247 x $(75) = $(33.47). Taking the sum we see that the casino can expect to pay me $31.88 if I bet on the banker.
If I were instead to bet on the Player, I would have a 44.6247% chance of winning the $150 (commission free) = $66.94 and a 45.8597% chance of losing $75 = $(34.39). Taking the sum of these, we see that the casino can expect to pay me $32.55.
By restricting match plays to the player bet, the casino is actually costing itself more! It doesn't matter what the frequencies of wins and losses are, it's all built into the EV. And that EV prevails every single time the game is played.
