Does Counting Cards in 21 matter? question about is it worth it.

I've been looking into it and the usual blackjack game played the house has an edge of about .5 to 1%. Give multi-deck game, late surrender, 3:2 odd payout etc.

Now if your counting cards you'll at times have the edge of about 2% or alittle more after you convert running count to true count. Even with this edge it isnt guarenteed your gonna win you still lose most the time dealer still gets 21's while you get not a very good hand, you get 21's while the dealer busts or has to stay at 17. the majority of money made for counters is putting money on the line when the edge is high and hoping to the god's he gets a good hand.

basically im asking is counting cards for that 2% momentary advantage worth it for a guy who is only at the tables betting 30 or 40 dollars, there for an hour or two. There to make some money, but isnt looking for life altering cash.

For blackjack is it good enough to know basic strategy really good, and eyeball the cards to keep note of what is being dealt like say there was a hand of all low cards so you bet alittle more or there is a hand of all high cards so you bet alittle less..

anyone got an opinion

If you count casually, you will cut down the edge and likely make your overall return positive. But you will still go on losing streaks, just like when you play blackjack without counting and go on winning streaks.

I think counting is still a great idea for someone who is out there to have a good time. You don't have to take it seriously, you can even make mistakes. It will tell you the good times to raise your bet, and the good times to take a break and go to the washroom. Overall, it can be a very enjoyable experience to know you are gambling at around break-even, without much more work.

Card counting is not as easy as displayed by the movies and other shows. You have to memorize the basic strategy charts perfectly, learn a card counting system while accurately keeping track of the count, learn index numbers based on the count, learn how to avoid heat, etc. It takes months if not years of practice to be proficient. Even then, very few counters win long term, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't do it. I believe it's worth the effort for most people.
Here's my opinion. Playing at a disadvantage (unless you're playing through the shoe with a bet spread while card counting) is a foolish thing to do. For me, it's either advantage play or nothing. There are many gamblers who say they can justify it as entertainment. For them, I say that's between them, their family, and God.
As far as betting $40 on average with a 2% advantage, here's the math behind it. Let's say you play 100 hands per hour. After 1 hour, 40 X .02 X 100 = an expected value of $80 plus or minus $440. You're right that there's no guarantees in card counting, but it's better than playing with a disadvantage and losing money. Advantage play is the only correct way to play in casinos otherwise you're just wasting your Time and Money!! However, no matter how much of an advantage you think you have, under no circumstances should you ever bet more than you can afford to put at risk.

My opinion is this, and many people will disagree with me here (which is fine):

Stick to basic strategy.

Learn it so you have it down cold and will make maybe one minor mistake in 100 hands. The reason I don't card count is because I find it stressful and difficult. You may be playing with an advantage sometimes, but do you really want the stress of looking over your shoulder at the pit boss while at the same time trying to keep a running & true count? If you card count--unless you are talented and great at it--you will probably make so many mistakes as to put you at the same disadvantage as a basic strategy player or worse. Meanwhile, playing low limit BS will lose you money of course, but with drinks, comps, etc. you will almost be even with the house and will, in my estimation, have more fun.

Quote: Bowler377

As far as betting $40 on average with a 2% advantage, here's the math behind it. Let's say you play 100 hands per hour. After 1 hour, 40 X .02 X 100 = an expected value of $80 plus or minus $440.

What exactly did you mean with the "plus or minus $440"? Why isn't the expected value just $80 (or to put it specifically, plus $80), if you have a 2% advantage?

Good card counters only have about a 1% advantage. To get to 2% you would need to be extremely aggressive, which would get you backed off or worse quickly. Card counting is tough. If it were easy, everyone would be doing it. Only you can answer the question if it is worth the time and trouble.

Quote: EnvyBonus

What exactly did you mean with the "plus or minus $440"? Why isn't the expected value just $80 (or to put it specifically, plus $80), if you have a 2% advantage?

That looks like the variance per hour of blackjack with an agressive counting system. Could be from one of Wong's books