cory00
cory00
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April 12th, 2026 at 7:29:53 AM permalink
AI is telling me 2.18% house edge for all wagered bets. But another website is telling 0.53%.

Im gonna assume 0.53% is the house edge.

So for every $100 a player wagers, i only make 53 cents?

It's not even worth housing ultimate to people who play optimal strategy I feel like? And I'm also gonna let players be able to look at each others cards. which probably brings down the edge even more.

Let's say all ante/play bet is $100 and $100. I do 30 hands per hour.

would it be 53 cents x 30 hands = $15.90 im making in the long run per player per hour thats playing optimally?

Ok but im hosting 3 players who are all betting $100 each. so i make $48 an hour basically in the long run?

With the variance in uth its probably not even worth it. I can probably either lose $10000 running a 8 hour session against people betting $100 antes every hand, or either win 10k.

Am i reading this correct? How is the house even making money? Why would casinos want to even host ultimate when they can make far more money running double zero roulette which has a house edge of 5%+?
Dieter
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Dieter
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harris
April 12th, 2026 at 7:44:21 AM permalink
Many players do not play optimally, and lose more than the optimal rate.

Some players prefer card games, and do not want to play roulette.

If you are going to host a game, make sure the dealer isn't sloppy. Overpays, mispays, and poor card handling technique will kill your edge faster than a few players playing expertly.
May the cards fall in your favor.
harris
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April 12th, 2026 at 7:52:51 AM permalink
You are significantly underestimating the total house edge.

0.53% is the element of risk which is a term that the Wizard uses.

I'm going to estimate that the "real house edge" (i.e., slightly suboptimal play) is 3-4% on the main bets.

There are also side bets and progressives with higher house edges that most people play.

Additionally, players can bet up to x4 in UTH which would increase the amount being betted.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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April 12th, 2026 at 8:06:34 AM permalink
Quote: cory00

AI is telling me 2.18% house edge for all wagered bets. But another website is telling 0.53%.

Im gonna assume 0.53% is the house edge.

So for every $100 a player wagers, i only make 53 cents?

It's not even worth housing ultimate to people who play optimal strategy I feel like? And I'm also gonna let players be able to look at each others cards. which probably brings down the edge even more.

Let's say all ante/play bet is $100 and $100. I do 30 hands per hour.

would it be 53 cents x 30 hands = $15.90 im making in the long run per player per hour thats playing optimally?

Ok but im hosting 3 players who are all betting $100 each. so i make $48 an hour basically in the long run?

With the variance in uth its probably not even worth it. I can probably either lose $10000 running a 8 hour session against people betting $100 antes every hand, or either win 10k.

Am i reading this correct? How is the house even making money? Why would casinos want to even host ultimate when they can make far more money running double zero roulette which has a house edge of 5%+?
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The house edge for optimal strategy without collusion is 2.18%

The house edge for UTH with optimal collusion in which each player sees the cards of 5 other players is 0.53%.

You are hosting a game with three players, so even if they are world class advantage players your house edge will be above 1.5%. Each player only sees 4 cards in his neighbors' hands, not 10 cards. If they are ordinary players then your house edge will likely be above 2.1%.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
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