duhwhat
duhwhat
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 1
Joined: May 19, 2022
May 19th, 2022 at 12:29:51 PM permalink
I was watching the All Casino Action channel on youtube playing Ultimate Texas Holdem last night and his usual whining about how he can't win on UTH. It seems natural to me that the casino is going to win most of the time but I wasn't sure why since the advantage isn't that large.
Then it occurred to me that when you calculate odds you use the full spectrum of hands and most players will never hit a royal at UTH or 3CP. If you omit the royal payout from the players side, the player would be at a much larger disadvantage would he not?
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
  • Threads: 117
  • Posts: 4872
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
May 19th, 2022 at 12:36:07 PM permalink
Omit 5 Royals and it looks even worse.
Mosca
Mosca
  • Threads: 191
  • Posts: 4140
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
May 19th, 2022 at 3:09:38 PM permalink
Actually royals at 3CP are pretty common. 4 in 22,100.
A falling knife has no handle.
TinMan
TinMan
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 449
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
Thanked by
smoothgrh
May 19th, 2022 at 3:13:34 PM permalink
That's my understanding as well. I had a similar thought when I started playing video poker. I played 9/6 Jacks or Better game at a casino I went to maybe 2-3x a year. I would buy-in for $100, play Wizard's basic strategy (99.45% or thereabouts), sit for an hour or two or three, and regularly lose the $100. Not every time, but it felt like I had regular losing $100 sessions and my less frequent winning sessions were capped at maybe $50. Seemed terribly unlucky. Then I read someone pointing out that ~2% of your return in video poker is the royal flush. So every session you don't hit a royal, it's effectively like you're playing a 97.45% game rather than a 99.45% game. I know that's not technically correct (it's always 99.45%), but it helped me to understand why the results seemed more unbalanced than the straight 0.55% house edge would suggest. So yeah, those low frequency high payout events can represent a meaningful chunk of the overall return.
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
Zcore13
Zcore13
  • Threads: 41
  • Posts: 3814
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
May 19th, 2022 at 6:29:52 PM permalink
Quote: duhwhat

I was watching the All Casino Action channel on youtube playing Ultimate Texas Holdem last night and his usual whining about how he can't win on UTH. It seems natural to me that the casino is going to win most of the time but I wasn't sure why since the advantage isn't that large.
Then it occurred to me that when you calculate odds you use the full spectrum of hands and most players will never hit a royal at UTH or 3CP. If you omit the royal payout from the players side, the player would be at a much larger disadvantage would he not?
link to original post



Also, although the main bet house advantage is small, everyone plays the trips bet and many play the progressive. Multiply the combined house edge against every hands wager and the theorical loss starts to add up fast.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
  • Jump to: