Three Card Poker Holecarding Statisitics

I’ve seen the strategies required when you are able to see one card from a sloppy dealer dealing Three Card Poker, and know you can gain an edge of up to about 3.5%, but I am wondering if there are any other resources available for performing other calculations, typically associated with blackjack? The EV is obvious but looking for things like:

Standard deviation and variance
Risk of Ruin
N0

Hope this is not out of line, thanks in advance!

Perfect question for the forum. And welcome. The answers are above my pay grade, but I do know that the ‘math’ answer doesn’t always equate to the ‘real world’ answer. A few decades ago I was at a table with a flamboyant dealer whose hole card was visible more often than not. What do you do when you have a hard 19 and the dealer has a 20? Hit it once and the pit boss/eye in the sky now are all over you. There were enough decisions that you could use the info, but many more you would be exposed if you did. I think it was a $5 table…. maybe I made $30 and just felt so uncomfortable I left. I would take more $$ today!

I don't know how to do a lot of the calcs my self, but I think the links below are a good start for Standard Deviation (SD) and Risk of Ruin (RoR)

RoR
SD

Note 1: In the SD link above, the relevant table is titled "Casino Game House Edge"
Note 2: Because of my lack of understanding, I am not sure if the SD changes significantly (or at all) when hole-carding 3-C-P, but the figure listed is 1.64 (when playing it a more "normal way").

This article gives the DI, variance & other info you can use to do the calculations for N0 and ROR.

https://www.888casino.com/blog/novelty-games/three-card-poker-hole-card-play-update-1

Quote: Archie68

I’ve seen the strategies required when you are able to see one card from a sloppy dealer dealing Three Card Poker, and know you can gain an edge of up to about 3.5%, but I am wondering if there are any other resources available for performing other calculations, typically associated with blackjack? The EV is obvious but looking for things like:

Standard deviation and variance
Risk of Ruin
N0

Hope this is not out of line, thanks in advance!
link to original post

Mr. Archie: I realize that somehow you are into the "math" of this fun game, but let me ask you some pointed questions. When you play: ($5 or $10 table)
1. How much do you usually buy-in for?
2. How long do you usually play?
3. Do you set a loss threshold?
4. Do you re-buy. and if so, how many times?
5. Do you set a win goal?
6. Why do you play this game as opposed to other carnival games or BJ or baccarat?
7. Do you actually believe the HE/HA is 3.5% and that whatever the supposed SD is in any way meaningful to ones ability to play or influence ones play?

tuttigym

Advice for playing this game: just don’t.

Confirmation bias will wreck the perceived math, when you think you know what you saw you’ll count that as being right instead of what it was, a guess. And when you’re wrong it’s a lot more devastating than the basic strategy house edge. Again, imho just don’t bother unless you’re playing for fun and not money.

Tuttigym -

It looks to me like these questions assume I would not be playing with an advantage. Holecarding should give the player up to a 3.5% advantage over the house, and I think would make most of the questions irrelevant.

If we are on the same page, here are my answers:
1 - around $300
2 - around 1.5hrs
3 - No
4 - Yes, maybe once but no hard limits
5 - No, but if things were very positive I may leave early to minimize heat
6 - I don’t have an edge in any other carnival games at the moment. At some places, the BJ rules may be unfavorable where counting would not seem as useful as TCP. At other places, I will choose counting over Holecarding TCP.
7 - Yes? Not sure what we are asking here

Quote: mcallister3200

Advice for playing this game: just don’t.

Confirmation bias will wreck the perceived math, when you think you know what you saw you’ll count that as being right instead of what it was, a guess. And when you’re wrong it’s a lot more devastating than the basic strategy house edge. Again, imho just don’t bother unless you’re playing for fun and not money.
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Appreciate the input. I will mention that I have come across 100% games, where the card could be seen even from standing behind the players away from the table. Would this change your thoughts at all? One part of what attracts me to the game is that you get the answers to the test so to speak, as opposed to card counting.

Counting, you never know for certain in play what the running count was, or what the exact decks remaining is. In TCP, the dealer exposes the cards and you know for sure what you saw. If I’m getting the hole card 100% of the time, I should be at almost 3.5% when played correctly, no?

Ehh I guess you’ll have to make your own decisions about what you value but I’ll say with certainty you’re somewhat overestimating the reality or not giving enough consideration to other necessary factors. 100% really means 95-97% also if you track every hand rather than estimating, not even considering relief. So no, not 3.5%.

And I’d also say that one out of three cards is not really the answer to the test it’s just additional info, not that dissimilar to counting in that aspect, especially in that game.

Quote: Archie68

It looks to me like these questions assume I would not be playing with an advantage. Holecarding should give the player up to a 3.5% advantage over the house, and I think would make most of the questions irrelevant.

If we are on the same page, here are my answers:
1 - around $300
2 - around 1.5hrs
3 - No
4 - Yes, maybe once but no hard limits
5 - No, but if things were very positive I may leave early to minimize heat
6 - I don’t have an edge in any other carnival games at the moment. At some places, the BJ rules may be unfavorable where counting would not seem as useful as TCP. At other places, I will choose counting over Holecarding TCP.
7 - Yes? Not sure what we are asking here
link to original post

Mr.Archie: Thanks for answering the questions and taking them seriously. My personal basic approach to the game itself is that the "math" written about in the article linked is beyond reality. For example, have you ever bought in for $300, played for and hour and a half, only lost $10.50?
I personally love the game, but my approach is very different as I never play against the house in the standard meaning or establishment defined play. The next time you have occasion to play I want you to consider this method:
1. Play at a casino that allows one to play the "Pair Plus" bonus ONLY.
2. Buy in for $100 ($5 table is optimal but $10 table works too)
3. Bet the table minimum on the "Pair Plus" only.
4. Do NOT look at your cards ever; let the dealer turn them over at the appropriate time.
5. If your hand is a winner at any level, pocket the win and play that bet again.
6. Play through the $100 pocketing any wins and when the original $100 is gone leave the table.

Results:
1. No stress as you are not playing against the house, i.e., the dealer's hand is meaningless and cannot beat you.
2. Your buy in $$$ goes three times longer than if you played regular.
3. Your winnings will sometimes add up to more than your buy in. ( My last three sessions were all + as the winnings in my pocket exceeded my $100 buy-in although no guarantees.)
4. The time at the table with your play will last longer too.
5. Blind play, for me, is much more fun than being disappointed looking at your draw only to fold or "gamble" against the house on a marginal hand.

If you have a mind to, try it just once. That perceived HA/HE just is NOT important.

tuttigym

Quote: teliot

This article gives the DI, variance & other info you can use to do the calculations for N0 and ROR.

https://www.888casino.com/blog/novelty-games/three-card-poker-hole-card-play-update-1
link to original post

I used to read a lot of your blogs/articles, but for the last few years I have been geo-blocked because Australia is pretty strict with accessing/using overseas betting sites.

Note 1: I even recently tried using a VPN, but that country must be geo-blocked as well.
Note 2: I don't like using Tor for these sorts of things anymore, mainly because it is so slow (at least on my connections).

Thank you for the help.

I don’t understand how the RoR calculator can work without knowing what is bet. Entering bankroll, edge, and SD makes sense, but is it assuming bet size is 1/100th of BR or something? Not sure how to use RoR without bet size.

Quote: Archie68

Thank you for the help.

I don’t understand how the RoR calculator can work without knowing what is bet. Entering bankroll, edge, and SD makes sense, but is it assuming bet size is 1/100th of BR or something? Not sure how to use RoR without bet size.
link to original post

If you are talking about the WoO one, then it is just based on "flat bet units", i think.
The example on the site says something like - Playing Video Poker with $5,000 bank and betting $1.25 per hand would = 4000 betting units.