Keeperofcards
Keeperofcards
Joined: May 20, 2016
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June 30th, 2020 at 10:14:44 PM permalink
I've come across a curious little bet on Fortune Pai Gow Poker and Face Up Pai Gow called the Low-Ball bet. I was curious in how this plays out in relation to the main bet. It seems like a way one might hedge their losses. The tables in question also include a fortune bonus.
Odds for the low-ball are as follows:
9-hi 150:1
10-hi 50:1
J-hi. 20:1
Q-hi 10:1
K-hi 4:1
A-hi 1:1
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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June 30th, 2020 at 11:44:02 PM permalink
Quote: Keeperofcards

I've come across a curious little bet on Fortune Pai Gow Poker and Face Up Pai Gow called the Low-Ball bet. I was curious in how this plays out in relation to the main bet. It seems like a way one might hedge their losses. The tables in question also include a fortune bonus.
Odds for the low-ball are as follows:
9-hi 150:1
10-hi 50:1
J-hi. 20:1
Q-hi 10:1
K-hi 4:1
A-hi 1:1



Very quickly and with low precision:

A- Hi occurs with a frequency of 9.4%

K-Hi: 4.1%

Q-Hi: 1.8%

J-Hi: 0.6%

T-Hi: 0.2%

9-Hi: <0.1% (don't remember the exact number)

So, I think the House edge is about 18%.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Jul 1, 2020
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
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July 1st, 2020 at 1:50:24 AM permalink
Using the figures on https://wizardofodds.com/games/pai-gow-poker/appendix/3/ (under Pai Gow Insurance) I get nearly 17%. Given this is much worse than the pay table on that page, I would recommend avoiding this particular paytable for the sidebet.
Keeperofcards
Keeperofcards
Joined: May 20, 2016
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July 1st, 2020 at 6:36:38 PM permalink
Really? I'm getting 7.4%, which seems much closer considering the house edge on the insurance bet mentioned is 7.3%
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
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July 1st, 2020 at 11:24:52 PM permalink
Event
Pays
Combinations
Probability
Return
9 high pai gow
150
31 080
.000 201 631
.030 244 627
10 high pai gow
50
248 640
.001 613 047
.080 652 339
J high pai gow
20
963 480
.006 250 556
.125 011 126
Q high pai gow
10
2 719 500
.017 642 699
.176 426 992
K high pai gow
4
6 386 940
.041 435 139
.165 740 557
A high pai gow
1
14 430 780
.093 619 383
.093 619 383
Loser
-1
129 362 660
.839 237 545
-.839 237 545
Total
154 143 080
1.000 000 000
-.167 542 520
Keeperofcards
Keeperofcards
Joined: May 20, 2016
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July 2nd, 2020 at 5:36:13 PM permalink
Ah sorry, mistyped on the A-hi. Should be 2:1 payout. Which I believe would drop it to the 7.4%
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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July 3rd, 2020 at 5:38:40 AM permalink
Quote: Keeperofcards

I've come across a curious little bet on Fortune Pai Gow Poker and Face Up Pai Gow called the Low-Ball bet. I was curious in how this plays out in relation to the main bet. It seems like a way one might hedge their losses. The tables in question also include a fortune bonus.
Odds for the low-ball are as follows:
9-hi 150:1
10-hi 50:1
J-hi. 20:1
Q-hi 10:1
K-hi 4:1
A-hi 1:1



I see you corrected the payout to 2-1 later. So "only" 7% house edge. When you say 'hedge your losses', while that may be sort of correct, 'hedge your losses' then also includes 'diminish your wins'. And the 'diminish your wins' will be 7% greater than the positive of 'hedging your losses'. Someone with better math skills than me can show that you will be decreasing variance by making that side bet. And remember, when playing a negative EV game like Pai Gow, if your goal is to try and eke out a win, variance is your friend.

I personally have hit 3 perfect 9 high hands in my illustrious pai gow career. None were on tables with the side bet offer.
Deucekies
Deucekies
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
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July 11th, 2020 at 5:02:45 PM permalink
Looks like it functions the same as Emperor's Challenge, which usually pays 3/5/6/15/25/100. Your paytable is top-heavy, which invariably means a much higher house edge.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm

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