Pai Gow Poker Low-ball bonus
June 30th, 2020 at 10:14:44 PM
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I've come across a curious little bet on Fortune Pai Gow Poker and Face Up Pai Gow called the Low-Ball bet. I was curious in how this plays out in relation to the main bet. It seems like a way one might hedge their losses. The tables in question also include a fortune bonus.
Odds for the low-ball are as follows:
9-hi 150:1
10-hi 50:1
J-hi. 20:1
Q-hi 10:1
K-hi 4:1
A-hi 1:1
Odds for the low-ball are as follows:
9-hi 150:1
10-hi 50:1
J-hi. 20:1
Q-hi 10:1
K-hi 4:1
A-hi 1:1
June 30th, 2020 at 11:44:02 PM
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Quote: KeeperofcardsI've come across a curious little bet on Fortune Pai Gow Poker and Face Up Pai Gow called the Low-Ball bet. I was curious in how this plays out in relation to the main bet. It seems like a way one might hedge their losses. The tables in question also include a fortune bonus.
Odds for the low-ball are as follows:
9-hi 150:1
10-hi 50:1
J-hi. 20:1
Q-hi 10:1
K-hi 4:1
A-hi 1:1
Very quickly and with low precision:
A- Hi occurs with a frequency of 9.4%
K-Hi: 4.1%
Q-Hi: 1.8%
J-Hi: 0.6%
T-Hi: 0.2%
9-Hi: <0.1% (don't remember the exact number)
So, I think the House edge is about 18%.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Jul 1, 2020
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July 1st, 2020 at 1:50:24 AM
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Using the figures on https://wizardofodds.com/games/pai-gow-poker/appendix/3/ (under Pai Gow Insurance) I get nearly 17%. Given this is much worse than the pay table on that page, I would recommend avoiding this particular paytable for the sidebet.
July 1st, 2020 at 6:36:38 PM
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Really? I'm getting 7.4%, which seems much closer considering the house edge on the insurance bet mentioned is 7.3%
July 1st, 2020 at 11:24:52 PM
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Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
9 high pai gow | 150 | 31 080 | .000 201 631 | .030 244 627 |
10 high pai gow | 50 | 248 640 | .001 613 047 | .080 652 339 |
J high pai gow | 20 | 963 480 | .006 250 556 | .125 011 126 |
Q high pai gow | 10 | 2 719 500 | .017 642 699 | .176 426 992 |
K high pai gow | 4 | 6 386 940 | .041 435 139 | .165 740 557 |
A high pai gow | 1 | 14 430 780 | .093 619 383 | .093 619 383 |
Loser | -1 | 129 362 660 | .839 237 545 | -.839 237 545 |
Total | 154 143 080 | 1.000 000 000 | -.167 542 520 |
July 2nd, 2020 at 5:36:13 PM
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Ah sorry, mistyped on the A-hi. Should be 2:1 payout. Which I believe would drop it to the 7.4%
July 3rd, 2020 at 5:38:40 AM
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Quote: KeeperofcardsI've come across a curious little bet on Fortune Pai Gow Poker and Face Up Pai Gow called the Low-Ball bet. I was curious in how this plays out in relation to the main bet. It seems like a way one might hedge their losses. The tables in question also include a fortune bonus.
Odds for the low-ball are as follows:
9-hi 150:1
10-hi 50:1
J-hi. 20:1
Q-hi 10:1
K-hi 4:1
A-hi 1:1
I see you corrected the payout to 2-1 later. So "only" 7% house edge. When you say 'hedge your losses', while that may be sort of correct, 'hedge your losses' then also includes 'diminish your wins'. And the 'diminish your wins' will be 7% greater than the positive of 'hedging your losses'. Someone with better math skills than me can show that you will be decreasing variance by making that side bet. And remember, when playing a negative EV game like Pai Gow, if your goal is to try and eke out a win, variance is your friend.
I personally have hit 3 perfect 9 high hands in my illustrious pai gow career. None were on tables with the side bet offer.
July 11th, 2020 at 5:02:45 PM
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Looks like it functions the same as Emperor's Challenge, which usually pays 3/5/6/15/25/100. Your paytable is top-heavy, which invariably means a much higher house edge.
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