COVID Gamble

Quote: tringlomane

This story? That doesn't really fit this discussion to me.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bet_(short_story)

Now I do remember reading "The Lottery" by Shirley Jackson. Where the unlucky loser in the town gets stoned. But in that story those not picked to be stoned weren't awarded a billion dollars either.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lottery

Quote: billryan

No thought about your immune suppressed spouse who is totally dependant on you?

Quote: gordonm888

She would agree with my decision and support me. She has sisters living close by and two daughters that would help to take care of her if I was gone.

And my comment was a description of principles and a reminder of how courage has been part of our national story. I wonder why you choose to bring my wife into this particular discussion and make it personal.

Let me ask you a hypothetical question If you were chosen by NASA to go into space for a couple of days, would you do it? Even though it is clear that sometimes things go wrong and everyone on the rocket ship could die?

Quote: gordonm888

She would agree with my decision and support me. She has sisters living close by and two daughters that would help to take care of her if I was gone.

And my comment was a description of principles and a reminder of how courage has been part of our national story. I wonder why you choose to bring my wife into this particular discussion and make it personal.

Let me ask you a hypothetical question If you were chosen by NASA to go into space for a couple of days, would you do it? Even though it is clear that sometimes things go wrong and everyone on the rocket ship could die?

Quote: darkoz

Serious question.

How many dead from Coronavirus would make you not want to keep open.

If one million Americans die within the next six months will you still be saying to each his own, give me liberty AND death?

Quote: gordonm888

Definitely, I would be infected by Covid-19 and take the $1 billion if I survived. That is money that would change the life of my family for generations and give me influence to help make social changes I believe in.

In the late 1800's people went out West to try to give themselves an opportunity or because they could get a homestead from the government. Of course there was significant risk in going out West - many people died defending their stagecoaches, or were murdered by bandits or died from disease (lack of doctors) or from other causes. But this nation was the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave. There have always been people who would take chances and risk their health and lives. Pioneers. Military volunteers. Front-line covid health workers. Astronauts and explorers. NFL players, lol.

Quote: ChumpChange

So I watched 13th (2016) and 21 (2008) on Netflix last night.

Quote: billryan

As Winston Churchill said, now that we know what you are, we just have to determine your price.

Quote: darkoz

Quote: gordonm888

She would agree with my decision and support me. She has sisters living close by and two daughters that would help to take care of her if I was gone.

And my comment was a description of principles and a reminder of how courage has been part of our national story. I wonder why you choose to bring my wife into this particular discussion and make it personal.

Let me ask you a hypothetical question If you were chosen by NASA to go into space for a couple of days, would you do it? Even though it is clear that sometimes things go wrong and everyone on the rocket ship could die?

I'm pretty certain I would be too scared to go but that's me.

I think there is a big difference between taking some chance on an action that is not designed to be deadly (flying airplanes or riding motorcycles, etc) versus deliberately infecting oneself with a virus known to be deadly.

We live life doing things that can go wrong like flying in an airplane. However if we choose to stay home that doesn't avoid danger either. There are home fires, gas leaks, storms that might hit, slipping on your head and shoulders shampoo in the shower, etc.

Living life isn't danger seeking even though danger is around every corner.

Infecting yourself purposefully to win a bet just sounds like a game of Russian Roulette.

If you knew a friend was playing Russian Roulette would your advice be, well hey you might die crossing the street so go right ahead. It's a sound choice?

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: darkoz

Quote: gordonm888

She would agree with my decision and support me. She has sisters living close by and two daughters that would help to take care of her if I was gone.

And my comment was a description of principles and a reminder of how courage has been part of our national story. I wonder why you choose to bring my wife into this particular discussion and make it personal.

Let me ask you a hypothetical question If you were chosen by NASA to go into space for a couple of days, would you do it? Even though it is clear that sometimes things go wrong and everyone on the rocket ship could die?

I'm pretty certain I would be too scared to go but that's me.

I think there is a big difference between taking some chance on an action that is not designed to be deadly (flying airplanes or riding motorcycles, etc) versus deliberately infecting oneself with a virus known to be deadly.

We live life doing things that can go wrong like flying in an airplane. However if we choose to stay home that doesn't avoid danger either. There are home fires, gas leaks, storms that might hit, slipping on your head and shoulders shampoo in the shower, etc.

Living life isn't danger seeking even though danger is around every corner.

Infecting yourself purposefully to win a bet just sounds like a game of Russian Roulette.

If you knew a friend was playing Russian Roulette would your advice be, well hey you might die crossing the street so go right ahead. It's a sound choice?

Russian Roulette... sure.... if there are enough empty chambers. One chamber with a bullet. 999 without. I believe I take the chance for a billion dollars. I wouldn't for 1 with bullet, 99 without. There is a WAY higher chance of me dying within the next year than 1 in 1000.

Quote: darkoz

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: darkoz

Quote: gordonm888

She would agree with my decision and support me. She has sisters living close by and two daughters that would help to take care of her if I was gone.

And my comment was a description of principles and a reminder of how courage has been part of our national story. I wonder why you choose to bring my wife into this particular discussion and make it personal.

Let me ask you a hypothetical question If you were chosen by NASA to go into space for a couple of days, would you do it? Even though it is clear that sometimes things go wrong and everyone on the rocket ship could die?

I'm pretty certain I would be too scared to go but that's me.

I think there is a big difference between taking some chance on an action that is not designed to be deadly (flying airplanes or riding motorcycles, etc) versus deliberately infecting oneself with a virus known to be deadly.

We live life doing things that can go wrong like flying in an airplane. However if we choose to stay home that doesn't avoid danger either. There are home fires, gas leaks, storms that might hit, slipping on your head and shoulders shampoo in the shower, etc.

Living life isn't danger seeking even though danger is around every corner.

Infecting yourself purposefully to win a bet just sounds like a game of Russian Roulette.

If you knew a friend was playing Russian Roulette would your advice be, well hey you might die crossing the street so go right ahead. It's a sound choice?

Russian Roulette... sure.... if there are enough empty chambers. One chamber with a bullet. 999 without. I believe I take the chance for a billion dollars. I wouldn't for 1 with bullet, 99 without. There is a WAY higher chance of me dying within the next year than 1 in 1000.

Clearly you decided it was only worth it with a 100 cylinder gun.

Most Russian roulette examples I have seen are played with a six cylinder revolver. After it's loaded the cylinder is spun.

Playing with multiple people the cylinder is spun after each successful try so the odds don't change.

So 5 empty, 1 loaded? Taking that billion dollar bet

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: darkoz

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: darkoz

Quote: gordonm888

She would agree with my decision and support me. She has sisters living close by and two daughters that would help to take care of her if I was gone.

And my comment was a description of principles and a reminder of how courage has been part of our national story. I wonder why you choose to bring my wife into this particular discussion and make it personal.

Let me ask you a hypothetical question If you were chosen by NASA to go into space for a couple of days, would you do it? Even though it is clear that sometimes things go wrong and everyone on the rocket ship could die?

I'm pretty certain I would be too scared to go but that's me.

I think there is a big difference between taking some chance on an action that is not designed to be deadly (flying airplanes or riding motorcycles, etc) versus deliberately infecting oneself with a virus known to be deadly.

We live life doing things that can go wrong like flying in an airplane. However if we choose to stay home that doesn't avoid danger either. There are home fires, gas leaks, storms that might hit, slipping on your head and shoulders shampoo in the shower, etc.

Living life isn't danger seeking even though danger is around every corner.

Infecting yourself purposefully to win a bet just sounds like a game of Russian Roulette.

If you knew a friend was playing Russian Roulette would your advice be, well hey you might die crossing the street so go right ahead. It's a sound choice?

Russian Roulette... sure.... if there are enough empty chambers. One chamber with a bullet. 999 without. I believe I take the chance for a billion dollars. I wouldn't for 1 with bullet, 99 without. There is a WAY higher chance of me dying within the next year than 1 in 1000.

Clearly you decided it was only worth it with a 100 cylinder gun.

Most Russian roulette examples I have seen are played with a six cylinder revolver. After it's loaded the cylinder is spun.

Playing with multiple people the cylinder is spun after each successful try so the odds don't change.

So 5 empty, 1 loaded? Taking that billion dollar bet

You didn't read my post carefully. I said it was worth it with a 1000 cylinder gun, not a 100 cylinder gun.

Quote: darkoz

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: darkoz

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: darkoz

Quote: gordonm888

She would agree with my decision and support me. She has sisters living close by and two daughters that would help to take care of her if I was gone.

And my comment was a description of principles and a reminder of how courage has been part of our national story. I wonder why you choose to bring my wife into this particular discussion and make it personal.

Let me ask you a hypothetical question If you were chosen by NASA to go into space for a couple of days, would you do it? Even though it is clear that sometimes things go wrong and everyone on the rocket ship could die?

I'm pretty certain I would be too scared to go but that's me.

I think there is a big difference between taking some chance on an action that is not designed to be deadly (flying airplanes or riding motorcycles, etc) versus deliberately infecting oneself with a virus known to be deadly.

We live life doing things that can go wrong like flying in an airplane. However if we choose to stay home that doesn't avoid danger either. There are home fires, gas leaks, storms that might hit, slipping on your head and shoulders shampoo in the shower, etc.

Living life isn't danger seeking even though danger is around every corner.

Infecting yourself purposefully to win a bet just sounds like a game of Russian Roulette.

If you knew a friend was playing Russian Roulette would your advice be, well hey you might die crossing the street so go right ahead. It's a sound choice?

Russian Roulette... sure.... if there are enough empty chambers. One chamber with a bullet. 999 without. I believe I take the chance for a billion dollars. I wouldn't for 1 with bullet, 99 without. There is a WAY higher chance of me dying within the next year than 1 in 1000.

Clearly you decided it was only worth it with a 100 cylinder gun.

Most Russian roulette examples I have seen are played with a six cylinder revolver. After it's loaded the cylinder is spun.

Playing with multiple people the cylinder is spun after each successful try so the odds don't change.

So 5 empty, 1 loaded? Taking that billion dollar bet

You didn't read my post carefully. I said it was worth it with a 1000 cylinder gun, not a 100 cylinder gun.

Yep, you are right I didn't even see you wanted a 1000 cylinder gun.

So basically you won't play Russian roulette as it's traditionally done with six cylinders for any amount of money

Quote: darkoz

….SNIP

I think there is a big difference between taking some chance on an action that is not designed to be deadly (flying airplanes or riding motorcycles, etc) versus deliberately infecting oneself with a virus known to be deadly.

We live life doing things that can go wrong like flying in an airplane. However if we choose to stay home that doesn't avoid danger either. There are home fires, gas leaks, storms that might hit, slipping on your head and shoulders shampoo in the shower, etc.

Living life isn't danger seeking even though danger is around every corner.

Infecting yourself purposefully to win a bet just sounds like a game of Russian Roulette.

If you knew a friend was playing Russian Roulette would your advice be, well hey you might die crossing the street so go right ahead. It's a sound choice?

Quote: gordonm888

The question we are responding to is a nonsensical hypothetical situation. Criticize the billionaire who would pay me a billion dollars to be infected by Covid-19 and risk death - rather than criticize me for saying that I would choose to be infected for a >90% shot at a billion dollars.

But yes, people volunteer for the military knowing that they may step on a hidden explosive device or may be shot in the head by a sniper in Afghanistan.

In the 1940s, American merchant ships (civilians) sailed to Great Britain with supplies - in order to make a profit - despite a roughly 10% chance of the ship being sunk by German U-boats (submarines.)

Reasonable people can and often do disagree on where the line is between courage and foolhardiness. But let's all agree that courage has always been an essential part of the advancement of mankind. And when we see courage, we usually praise it and admire it.

Quote: billryan

So you think it is an act of courage to step into a casino knowing there is a decent chance you will bring home a deadly infection to a family member. Who can argue with such logic. Or with someone who equates serving their country with being a selfish prig who insists on his right to infect others.

Quote: SOOPOO

Oh my God yes. I have been thinking about it, probably more than I should! For a billion I need at least 300 cylinders.

Quote: DRich

I would defnitely do it with a six cylinder gun.

An 84% chance for a billion dollars and only 16% chance of dead. I like those odds.

Quote: heatmap

im assuming that since the bullet adds weight to the barrel that it would normally land below most of the time since its not balanced, unless there is some kind of mechanism within the barrel to balance it at all times. im ignorant to guns

Quote: gordonm888

The question we are responding to is a nonsensical hypothetical situation. Criticize the billionaire who would pay me a billion dollars to be infected by Covid-19 and risk death - rather than criticize me for saying that I would choose to be infected for a >90% shot at a billion dollars.

But yes, people volunteer for the military knowing that they may step on a hidden explosive device or may be shot in the head by a sniper in Afghanistan.

In the 1940s, American merchant ships (civilians) sailed to Great Britain with supplies - in order to make a profit - despite a roughly 10% chance of the ship being sunk by German U-boats (submarines.)

Reasonable people can and often do disagree on where the line is between courage and foolhardiness. But let's all agree that courage has always been an essential part of the advancement of mankind. And when we see courage, we usually praise it and admire it.

Quote: billryan

So you think it is an act of courage to step into a casino knowing there is a decent chance you will bring home a deadly infection to a family member. Who can argue with such logic. Or with someone who equates serving their country with being a selfish prig who insists on his right to infect others.

Quote: gordonm888

Dammit, I never said anything about stepping into a casino - I answered a question about whether I would allow myself to be infected with covid-19 for a possible $1 billion reward -which is the topic of this thread. I talked about the reality that people will risk their health or lives for certain things - the prospect of a better life, or to help a loved one or friend or for a great life experience.

To my fairly-stated post on the topic of this thread, you go off-topic and respond with your post accusing me of saying something I have never even come close to saying (or even thinking) and you insult me by calling me a selfish prig. Have you no shame?

I will send a PM to the Wizard and request a moderator review of billryan's post. I claim it is (a) off-topic, (b) a deliberate and malicious attempt to misrepresent my post by summarizing it with statements that I have never said and have nothing to do with what I posted here or have ever posted and (c) insulting.

If we are allowed to summarize someone else's post by saying "So you think it is appropriate to have sex with barnyard animals . . . . " then this forum is just going to fall apart.

Quote: billryan

So you think it is an act of courage to step into a casino knowing there is a decent chance you will bring home a deadly infection to a family member. Who can argue with such logic. Or with someone who equates serving their country with being a selfish prig who insists on his right to infect others.

Quote: darkoz

I vaguely remember a trial in the eighties where teenagers played without spinning each time so the odds got worse as you went. Five kids each going so the last kid had a 2:1 shot at survival.

They had played some preliminary game which decided the order of who had 5:1 odds, then 4:1 etc.

But the kid who was on trial tried to be smart and faked the initial spin purposefully placed the bullet in the last chamber so as it rotated it wouldn't get inside the firing chamber. He was trying to make sure no one died.

Problem:. He didn't fully understand how the mechanism worked. The cylinder INSIDE the gun has already shot so it rotates out. He put the bullet in the empty chamber just to it's right. That left the last kid with the live bullet.

He was charged with murder as s result. Probably manslaughter if I remember correctly.

Quote: gordonm888

"So you think it is appropriate to have sex with barnyard animals . . . . "

Quote: darkoz

I vaguely remember a trial in the eighties where teenagers played without spinning each time so the odds got worse as you went. Five kids each going so the last kid had a 2:1 shot at survival.

They had played some preliminary game which decided the order of who had 5:1 odds, then 4:1 etc.

But the kid who was on trial tried to be smart and faked the initial spin purposefully placed the bullet in the last chamber so as it rotated it wouldn't get inside the firing chamber. He was trying to make sure no one died.

Problem:. He didn't fully understand how the mechanism worked. The cylinder INSIDE the gun has already shot so it rotates out. He put the bullet in the empty chamber just to it's right. That left the last kid with the live bullet.

He was charged with murder as s result. Probably manslaughter if I remember correctly.

Quote: AxelWolf

That reminds me of this story. Pedro Ruiz held a book to his chest and persuaded his girlfriend to fire a gun at him from a foot away. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOPCxWOaK3E

Quote: WatchMeWin

My question is, What do you think about this video Ax?

Quote: AxelWolf

I honestly don't know a whole lot about it. The Next thing I know, someone will be telling me it's fake.


Assuming that's not the case: I think it's tragic that a young man lost his life, I really feel sorry for his family having to deal with such a senseless awful tragedy.

I'm almost wondering if there's more to this than meets the eye, perhaps some kind of pact between them two. A part of me was wondered if the kid actually wanted to die and she was more than happy to oblige.

They showed video clips and pictures of them prior and he seemed like a pretty happy go lucky guy, at least on the outside. So that just brings me back to believing it's pure stupidity.

I understand that people are in fact that stupid, but it's mind-boggling to think both of them could have been that stupid.

Apparently she was on record claiming she I was scared and didn't want to do it. I think that might be an act, either way, I really don't think he had to try all that hard in order to convince her to pull the trigger. Under the circumstances, I would have to guess she is probably a psycho famewhore.

I guess she was pregnant, I assume at some point she'll be in possession of her child and that's a real scary thought.

Quote: Wizard

Math puzzle time!

You have a six-chamber revolver and wish to play Russian roulette with one other person. It is desired that each have a 50% chance of winning. Per the etiquette of Russian roulette, the chamber must be spun between turns. With no randomizing allowed (other than the chamber of the revolver), what rules will ensure the desired 50/50 outcome?

Quote: Wizard

Math puzzle time!

You have a six-chamber revolver and wish to play Russian roulette with one other person. It is desired that each have a 50% chance of winning. Per the etiquette of Russian roulette, the chamber must be spun between turns. With no randomizing allowed (other than the chamber of the revolver), what rules will ensure the desired 50/50 outcome?

Quote: darkoz

Quote: Wizard

Math puzzle time!

You have a six-chamber revolver and wish to play Russian roulette with one other person. It is desired that each have a 50% chance of winning. Per the etiquette of Russian roulette, the chamber must be spun between turns. With no randomizing allowed (other than the chamber of the revolver), what rules will ensure the desired 50/50 outcome?

Forgive me for the simplistic answer but wouldn't putting 3 bullets in the six Chambers create the desired 50% chance of winning

Quote: darkoz

Forgive me for the simplistic answer but wouldn't putting 3 bullets in the six Chambers create the desired 50% chance of winning

Quote: Gabes22

I would take the money. I had COVID and I was over it in 3 to 4 days.

Quote: darkoz

Isn't that kinda like betting on the game after it's over

Quote: Gabes22

Given the parameters, I think this assumes I never had, but given the knowledge I have given the fact I did have it, I don't think there is much to worry about for a slightly overweight but relatively healthy 41 year old. Even if I didn't get it in real life, leading up to it my assumption was that I a) eventually would get it and b) I would get over it. I got it on a Saturday and was symptom free by Wednesday. I felt almost 100% on Monday, so well in fact, I was denied at 2 places for a test, but had a brief relapse on Tuesday due to stopping taking Tylenol Monday evening. I did not get my test results until after I was 100%. Under most circumstances, in a non- COVID world I would have gone to work that Monday

Quote: Joeman

Quote: Gabes22

Given the parameters, I think this assumes I never had, but given the knowledge I have given the fact I did have it, I don't think there is much to worry about for a slightly overweight but relatively healthy 41 year old. Even if I didn't get it in real life, leading up to it my assumption was that I a) eventually would get it and b) I would get over it. I got it on a Saturday and was symptom free by Wednesday. I felt almost 100% on Monday, so well in fact, I was denied at 2 places for a test, but had a brief relapse on Tuesday due to stopping taking Tylenol Monday evening. I did not get my test results until after I was 100%. Under most circumstances, in a non- COVID world I would have gone to work that Monday

**Emphasis mine**

Gabes22 brings up a good point. Is there any reason to believe that the vast majority of us will not be exposed to the virus before a vaccine is found? If I'm going to be exposed anyway, why not pocket the $2 Bil?

Quote: darkoz

.

The Spanish Flu was three waves. Exact numbers are vague due to record taking but were somewhere in the neighborhood of (worldwide)

First wave: one million dead

SECOND WAVE: FORTY EIGHT MILLION DEAD

third wave 100,000 dead

As you can see the second wave was super deadlier. And that's a normal progression although not guaranteed from what I have read.

So take those into account. You know how gambling works. Every system you try works as you watch. Then put your wager down and suddenly everything is topsy turvy