COVID Gamble
Poll
 | 22 votes (91.66%) | ||
| | 2 votes (8.33%) |
24 members have voted
Or you can turn down the offer and instead take a COVID vaccination that will not risk your life but give you the same level of immunity as if you had gotten COVID.
The question for the poll is do you take your chances with COVID (and it’s mortality rate of []%) for a billion dollars. Or do you not take the gamble with your life.
Thread inspired by a Billryan post in the COVID math thread.
It may sound unbelievable to most and I DID have to think about it.
My family is more important than the money and I can't risk my life.
It's more than death. You also risk being on a ventilator for weeks feeling like you are drowning.
There will be posters saying they will do it for a billion dollars but is there anything they won't do?
Would you agree to have your appendix removed without anesthesia for a billion dollars?
Would you agree to have your right arm amputated?
Would you agree to murder someone's family for a billion dollars?
Murder your own family?
There are things that I hope many of us would say no to a billion dollars. And yes, I know lots of people have committed murder for money. We call them criminals.
So what are you guys?
Given the low mortality rate for all but aged patients I would probably take the billion. Same reason as I go out in the real world to do whatever I need to do. The chances I will not even get any real symptoms are many times higher than that of death.
The hard part about the billion is life would not be as fun as before. No reason to bet sports or sit at a BJ table grinding out enough to win what I pay for dinner. Money is no longer a reason to hope Lori Grenier leaves her husband for me.
I want it tax free BTW.
Take the billion. But 10 square miles with coastal frontage in Belize. And build my own Monte Carlo/Singapore casino and financial center.
Unwrapped!
Quote: darkozThe one billion dollars will be paid in pennies.
Unwrapped!
Can’t swing a dead cat without hitting pennies in this room!
With a billion dollars, you could own a casino. That could be a whole different kind of fun (just ask Derek Stevens).Quote: AZDuffman...
The hard part about the billion is life would not be as fun as before. No reason to bet sports or sit at a BJ table grinding out enough to win what I pay for dinner.
...
Quote: darkozThe one billion dollars will be paid in pennies.
Unwrapped!
A penny here, a penny there, pretty soon we are talking real money! BTW who am I paraphrasing?
Quote: DeMangoIf the CDC mortality rate is factored in, the odds of dying are roughly one in 400. If you get infected. Then there is the unknown odds of your immune system, some people just don't get flu, me not since 1973. I'm pegging the odds at 1 in a thousand. Where is my Billion?
This isn't the flu but okay
Quote: WatchMeWinI would get a very stealthy life insurance policy. Take the chance at the billion. If I die, so be it, my loved ones will live a good life. But I highly doubt I would die from the virus. Oh snap, knock on wood!!!!!
Lol, you infect yourself with Covid-19.
You wind up dying.
Your loved ones go to claim the insurance.
"Sorry, but the life insurance policy does not cover suicide. Intentionally infecting onself with Covid-19 voids the policy."
If I were a young man, despite the fact that I'd be less likely to die from the virus, I would NOT do it, as I'd be risking 60 years of living and accomplishments and learning and all that stuff. I'd value that 60 years.
Since I'm 62, I'd probably do it, as I'm risking 10-20 years and maybe less given that most of my dad's side of the family died of massive heart issues in their late 60's and early 70's.
So it comes down to cost/benefit. Not sure how much I'm risking with only 10 years or a bit more on the line, so I'd probably take a crack at the money. Could do a lot of good in 10 years with an extra billion. It would jumpstart all of the things I haven't been able to do in life to this point. But I wouldn't put 60 years of living on the line for crack at it. Plus, at this point, getting it once may not provide much protection, so you may get it again...and again.
Pretty simple idea. It's an evolutionary biology angle with cost/benefit.
By the way, the mortality rates for the virus aren't set in stone, which is a variable in the question. According to some analyses out of Italy, the longer the virus is embedded in a population, the lower the viral load dosages might be coming out of the infected. So with lower dosage loads, the less contagious and less lethal it may become. We'll see if that's correct in the months ahead. Keeping fingers crossed.
Quote: darkozI voted no.
It may sound unbelievable to most and I DID have to think about it.
My family is more important than the money and I can't risk my life.
It's more than death. You also risk being on a ventilator for weeks feeling like you are drowning.
There will be posters saying they will do it for a billion dollars but is there anything they won't do?
Would you agree to have your appendix removed without anesthesia for a billion dollars?
Would you agree to have your right arm amputated?
Would you agree to murder someone's family for a billion dollars?
Murder your own family?
There are things that I hope many of us would say no to a billion dollars. And yes, I know lots of people have committed murder for money. We call them criminals.
So what are you guys?
Your analogies are totally insane. The likelihood of a young healthy person having devastating effects from covid is low. The likelihood of having one arm if you amputate your arm is pretty close to 100%
I think the majority of people literally would not do any of those things you listed for a billion dollars.
Quote: darkoz
Murder your own family?
Not all of them.
But a couple I would do for a lot less than a billion. For an iron-clad guarantee not to get caught, I'd pay you.
Everett Dirksen.Quote: DeMangoA penny here, a penny there, pretty soon we are talking real money! BTW who am I paraphrasing?
Quote: darkozLol, you infect yourself with Covid-19.
You wind up dying.
Your loved ones go to claim the insurance.
"Sorry, but the life insurance policy does not cover suicide. Intentionally infecting onself with Covid-19 voids the policy."
Most life insurance does cover suicide just not in the first year of the policy.
Quote: darkozMy family is more important than the money and I can't risk my life.
This is irrelevant in the given context. The question would be how important are you for your family?
I am 63, had a heart attack, have high blood pressure and I voted yes.
Have a look at Vegas today. How many people are taking the risk to be infected without being promised any money.
I look at it as around 1% chance of death for me given my age (59.8) and diabetes. I take the 1% chance of death for the billion $. Not even a close decision. Of course my family would be sad if I kick the bucket, but that will happen anyway, likely within 20 years. That amount of money allows all the people I care about to be comfortable financially forever. My kids. Wife's kids. Our brothers and sisters. Even their kids.
Funny... I look at it as way MORE important for my family and my loved ones than for me personally.
There is a chance I have already had the disease, in which case a second infection is most likely fought off very easily. Even if I don't take the bet, and get the vaccine, there is a chance I do get coronavirus. A vaccine would still likely leave me vulnerable for some time, and may only offer short-term effectiveness, like a flu shot. In the event I do still catch it, my risk of dying from the disease would be the same, without the chance at the billion. Based on deaths, divided by the low end of estimated infections, chance of survival is over 99% (my guess is 99.7%), but I am comfortably under 60, which is where an extremely disproportional amount of the deaths are coming from.
This is like not even a question. Just a hypothetical. Imagine if you get Covid and after it's over you get $1 billion.
Quote: SOOPOOUnjon... I think it was my post that posed this question..... my feelings are hurt...
My bad! It was billryan’s post of “who would take that wager?” That spurred me to make a survey.
Whoops, erred and didn't notice you don't get the money right away. Either way, I'd go for it.
Quote: DJTeddyBearWith a billion dollars, you could own a casino. That could be a whole different kind of fun (just ask Derek Stevens).
It's also the same with lotto winners and pro athletes that have squandered their fortunes gambling or doing drugs, the money doesn't change who you are and what you like to do. If you enjoy doing something and you all of a sudden have money, you will just do it more or for higher stakes. I had a friend who inherited $3 million and said he would retire at 45 with it. He didn't and ended up blowing it in AC over a 15 month period.
Nobody wakes up one day after graduating High School and says "I'm going to play BJ or Craps for a living!" They initially go to a casino for fun and at some point get hooked. Some are smart enough to stop before it consumes them and some become consumed.
That being said, I would take the $1 billion so long as the money can be used for my medical care and paying for the best hospital & round the clock COVID treatment.
Quote: darkozLol, you infect yourself with Covid-19.
You wind up dying.
Your loved ones go to claim the insurance.
"Sorry, but the life insurance policy does not cover suicide. Intentionally infecting onself with Covid-19 voids the policy."
Ok , forget about the insurance policy factor. I think the only people that would and should be scared to take the chance are the elderly and those who are obese, diabetes, lung issues, weak immune system, etc.. Other than that, I hate to say it, but the reality is that this virus is worse than the flu, but it is the end all virus. Young healthy people (under 60) who, aside from a few unlucky groups, have very little to worry about regarding their own lives. This virus will have a vaccine and it will have a therapy very soon. This will be a thing of the past in no time. Unless you watch CNN, then YOU ARE GOING TO DIE!!!!!
I think a better question which would cause folks to contemplate hard about would be: For a billion bucks, would you risk contracting the virus with the understanding that you would lose a lung and you would suffer for 9 months with severe aches, shortness of breath, chills, sweats, and 104 fever....non stop for 9 months?
To that i say.... here is my bank wire transfer info. Please let me know when the transfer is complete so I can look at it from my bedside while i sweat, ache, and breathe heavily in elation!
Quote: WatchMeWinOk , forget about the insurance policy factor. I think the only people that would and should be scared to take the chance are the elderly and those who are obese, diabetes, lung issues, weak immune system, etc.. Other than that, I hate to say it, but the reality is that this virus is worse than the flu, but it is the end all virus. Young healthy people (under 60) who, aside from a few unlucky groups, have very little to worry about regarding their own lives. This virus will have a vaccine and it will have a therapy very soon. This will be a thing of the past in no time. Unless you watch CNN, then YOU ARE GOING TO DIE!!!!!
I think a better question which would cause folks to contemplate hard about would be: For a billion bucks, would you risk contracting the virus with the understanding that you would lose a lung and you would suffer for 9 months with severe aches, shortness of breath, chills, sweats, and 104 fever....non stop for 9 months?
To that i say.... here is my bank wire transfer info. Please let me know when the transfer is complete so I can look at it from my bedside while i sweat, ache, and breathe heavily in elation!
typo... BUT IT IS NOT THE END ALL VIRUS
Wear a mask, social distance, don't breathe on the chips.
Mayor of Phoenix on TV begging the Governor for the authority to lock down bigger cities because the hospitals are filling up. The state opened up May 17th, today is June 12. So 3 weeks is about all you get before this gets critical for big cities.
Arizona hospitals overwhelmed with COVID-19 cases rise.
Arizona is seeing a rise in patients with coronavirus as ICU capacity hits 90% in Phoenix hospitals and a 77% spike in cases in the state's largest county. Carter Evans reports.
23H AGO
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/arizona-hospitals-overwhelmed-as-coronavirus-cases-rise/ via @CBSNLive
Quote: ChumpChangeIf 20,000 different people visit a casino each day and 5.5% will die 3 weeks later because of it, that's 1,100 a day that die. I don't know how'd that look if the same 20,000 people showed up each day but nearly all would be turned away at the door with a fever within a week.
Wear a mask, social distance, don't breathe on the chips.
1 in 20 visitors to a casino will die within 3 weeks? From Circus!Circus! food or something?
Give me place with no masks! Prefer back to normal.
I always wind up at a casino on senior day, so if they all get sick at the buffet, it would look like a nursing home outbreak.
Not to mention, I think people that are answering no, can't really answer that question honestly until they are actually presented the opportunity. It's easy to say you would or wouldn't do something that's totally fictitious.
FYI I think I'd rather take my chances with covid than cut off an arm. I just can't imagine there's any amount of money that would make me want to cut off my arm. As I said, unless I'm actually presented with that opportunity, I can't say for sure, however I'm fairly content with my life as is, so I can't imagine I would want to lose an arm just for money. I'm wondering what I would have done at the age of 18 if asked that question.
Quote: AZDuffman1 in 20 visitors to a casino will die within 3 weeks? From Circus!Circus! food or something?
Give me place with no masks! Prefer back to normal.
Serious question.
How many dead from Coronavirus would make you not want to keep open.
If one million Americans die within the next six months will you still be saying to each his own, give me liberty AND death?
Quote: AxelWolfI don't like how the question was presented. I think you have to give everyone the same chance of dying.
Not to mention, I think people that are answering no, can't really answer that question honestly until they are actually presented the opportunity. It's easy to say you would or wouldn't do something that's totally fictitious.
FYI I think I'd rather take my chances with covid than cut off an arm. I just can't imagine there's any amount of money that would make me want to cut off my arm. As I said, unless I'm actually presented with that opportunity, I can't say for sure, however I'm fairly content with my life as is, so I can't imagine I would want to lose an arm just for money. I'm wondering what I would have done at the age of 18 if asked that question.
A 20 year old woman WITHOUT UNDERLYING HEALTH ISSUES just had her lungs so ravaged by Covid-19 she required a DOUBLE lung transplant. Apparently the first of it's kind.
If she makes it I wonder if she would say a billion dollars was worth it or if in hindsight she would say hell no
The offers got higher as the nature of the handicap increased. One leg, two legs, one arm. two arms, one eye, deafness, and so on.
The memo was so genuine-looking (official company letterhead, typical "Dear Colleague" boilerplate...) that before the company could put it to rest several employees called H.R. to pursue it.
Nowhere near a billion dollars. The offer here is tremendously over-valued. You'd be flooded with takers.
Quote: unJonYou are offered a billion dollar gamble. You will get COVID-19. If you live, the billion dollars is yours free and clear. If you die, your estate does not get any money.
Or you can turn down the offer and instead take a COVID vaccination that will not risk your life but give you the same level of immunity as if you had gotten COVID.
The question for the poll is do you take your chances with COVID (and it’s mortality rate of []%) for a billion dollars. Or do you not take the gamble with your life.
Thread inspired by a Billryan post in the COVID math thread.
You guys are so pg I bet you have never heard of bug chasers
Quote: heatmap
You guys are so pg I bet you have never heard of bug chasers
Nope, never heard of it. I had to look it up.
See post below.
Quote: ChumpChangeNope, never heard of it. I had to look it up.
Bug chasers are HIV-negative men who actively seek unprotected sex with HIV-positive partners, so that they themselves can become HIV-infected. Their active pursuit (chasing) of the HIV virus (bug) gives rise to their moniker. ... Recent evidence suggests that both bug chasing and gift giving are increasing in prevalence.Oct 22, 2014
I’m sorry if they consider this offensive and ban you so I copied it and will accept a ban as well
I got the chicken pox as a child because my parents "bug-chased" other kids in my class - we had cake and ice cream with a dozen other kids - so that we could all get over with it. That was in the fifties.
Has the politically correct culture infected us so much now that we have to choose a less controversial disease to define a term that has a general usage?
Quote: racquet
Has the politically correct culture infected us so much now that we have to choose a less controversial disease to define a term that has a general usage?
Yes I have been banned before for forgetting that political statement were banned and the only other place I hang “out” is the exact opposite of this place. I simply respect someone’s function of defining rules and being able to ban me for political statements is what I agreed to when I interacted with this website.
Quote: darkozSerious question.
How many dead from Coronavirus would make you not want to keep open.
If one million Americans die within the next six months will you still be saying to each his own, give me liberty AND death?
I think 200,000 more will scare enough to wash their hands and wear a mask. But that’s what we should have done from the git go. Instead of destroying the economy.
In the late 1800's people went out West to try to give themselves an opportunity or because they could get a homestead from the government. Of course there was significant risk in going out West - many people died defending their stagecoaches, or were murdered by bandits or died from disease (lack of doctors) or from other causes. But this nation was the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave. There have always been people who would take chances and risk their health and lives. Pioneers. Military volunteers. Front-line covid health workers. Astronauts and explorers. NFL players, lol.
Quote: gordonm888Definitely, I would be infected by Covid-19 and take the $1 billion if I survived. That is money that would change the life of my family for generations and give me influence to help make social changes I believe in.
In the late 1800's people went out West to try to give themselves an opportunity or because they could get a homestead from the government. Of course there was significant risk in going out West - many people died defending their stagecoaches, or were murdered by bandits or died from disease (lack of doctors) or from other causes. But this nation was the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave. There have always been people who would take chances and risk their health and lives. Pioneers. Military volunteers. Front-line covid health workers. Astronauts and explorers. NFL players, lol.
No thought about your immune suppressed spouse who is totally dependant on you?
Quote: billryanNo thought about your immune suppressed spouse who is totally dependant on you?
Nah, with that money he can afford to give her a nice burial and find a sexy trophy wife
Quote: unJon14-2. Completely unsurprising.
Apparently no one remembers the short story "The Bet"
Quote: darkozApparently no one remembers the short story "The Bet"
This story? That doesn't really fit this discussion to me.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bet_(short_story)
Now I do remember reading "The Lottery" by Shirley Jackson. Where the unlucky loser in the town gets stoned. But in that story those not picked to be stoned weren't awarded a billion dollars either.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lottery
